EURUSD Triangle Range. Sure. Forecasted.
By Marek W. Stupka | July 1, 2009
In my last blog post I wrote: “Do you see the thick green lines in the chart? Right now, these are the Support and Resistance lines in-between which the pair is likely to trade in the following days.”. OK, guess what happened since I published my last simplified EURUSD analysis..?
The pair has been range-bound in between the thick green triangle for several days and even weeks now, and is gathering momentum for a breakout. For those of you who have not been using any of my strategies for range trading and are awaiting the breakout: Watch out for it in the days to come! When this happens, the movement might be fast and the volatility high. Ideal train to step aboard and make solid amount of cash in line with the rules. For determining the right time and direction of the breakout, please follow the rules of any of the proven intraday trading strategies, e.g. the one that is exploited in The CONFIRMATOR TS….
Note also that the pair has been moving not only in the range defined by the thick green trend lines forming a triangle but lately also in-between the 61.8% and 76.4% fibbles capping the preceding substantial price move - just in line with the rules for Fibonacci retracements.
Pay heed to these two S/R levels when positioning yourself for your next trade. Once one of these lines is successfully crossed above or below, the trading opportunity will be there. Of course, always confirm such an opportunity via a set of more sophisticated technical tools and strategies, in accord with the training materials.
At Gepard Investments, Inc., we have special trading strategies (or better yet, we like to call them Trading Systems) for every market phase. When trading gets range-bound, we apply the second of the four types of the so called CONFIRMATOR Trading System named THE SHERLOCK Market Personality. Once a substantial breakout occurs on any of the long-term time scales, we deploy the so-called ALEXANDER Market Personality of this system. We also have other 2 back-tested trading systems at our disposal, covering trading on longer and shorter time scales. In addition, there is quite a number of the most recommended and conservative trading strategies used by professional trading houses and hedge funds. The point of the 1-on-1 Training is to guide a trader to develop his own trading plan following or slightly modifying one of the proven trading methods, respecting his or her own personality and trading style.
Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining the community of GEPARD traders and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
Corrective Move, Just In Line With My Analysis !!
By Marek W. Stupka | June 9, 2009
In my last blog post I wrote that: “The referential currency pair has just hit its long-term Resistance and will need more momentum to really break above it in a substantial way.” and that “The technical setup suggests a shaky movement on the north side of the indicator equilibrium in the days and weeks to come”. OK, guess what happened in the meantime..?
Elsewhere in the last post I also mentioned that: “Greenback felt to levels above the EURUSD psychological Resistance 1.4000. Note, however, that many trade position stops are placed at this rather significant price level of the referential EURUSD currency pair. Therefore, do not expect the market to substantially cross above this line easily. Candles and bars might get a little shaky…
Note that my conservative approach to further trading the pair bullish proved to be just right. In the 1D EURUSD chart above [click on the picture to get a bigger chart] we see that the most traded financial instrument in the world truly posted a corrective move.
Do you see the thick green lines in the chart above? Right now, these are the Support and Resistance lines in-between which the pair is likely to trade in the following days.
At Gepard Investments, Inc., we have a special trading strategy (or better yet, we like to call it a Trading System) for these kinds of market phases when the trading gets range-bound. It is the second of the four types of the so called CONFIRMATOR Trading System named THE SHERLOCK Market Personality. There are strict rules to the system and the type; they have been duly back-tested via up to 1000 demo trades, and they proved to work bearing consistent profits across all of the FOREX majors as well as most crosses. All my 1-on-1 students are given details of the system for free (as just one part of their training materials).
Now, in order to master and deploy a working, back-tested GEPARD trading system (either short-, or mid-, or long-term) you need the access codes to enter the community of GEPARD traders. Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining our community and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 4 Comments »
As Foretold, Dollar Continues to Shrink !!
By Marek W. Stupka | May 30, 2009
In a couple of my recent blog posts I have discussed the EUR-bullish outlook for the market (old posts can be found in the Archives of this blog). Those who took my advice to heart are now several hundred pips richer. Good old buck just did it again - shrink, I mean...
Another set of record-breaking price levels for the Euro paired against its major rival, the US dollar. The pair has just reached and significantly crossed the psychological resistance 1.4000. Interested in the fundamentals that triggered the aggressive dollar selling? Want to know what the catalyst was?
US GDP was revised up to -5.7% in Q1 from -6.1%, leaving the past two quarters as the worst in 50 years. The revisions reflect a change in gross private investment to -49.3% from -51.8%, a shift in exports to -28.7% from -30.0%, and a rise in the inventory change to -$91.4B from -$103.7B. Meanwhile, personal consumption was revised down to 1.5% from 2.2% due to a contraction in demand for nondurable goods and slower services growth.
These catalysts forced the greenback to fall to levels above the psychological Resistance 1.4000. Note, however, that many trade position stops are placed at this rather significant price level of the referential EURUSD currency pair. Therefore, do not expect the market to substantially cross above this line easily. Candles and bars might get a little shaky this week..
The bullish technical scenario in the 1W chart proved to work as smoothly as it was foretold in my earlier posts. In the 1W chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ] we can see that my EUR-bullish forecast was successful - AGAIN !! - and the price has just reached the 76,4% fibble at 1.4180.
Note, however, that at this point the long-term indicators for this pair are heavily overbought. This simple technical setup suggests a shaky movement on the north side of the indicator equilibrium in the days and weeks to come. The outlook is only powered by the fact that in this case the technical perspective agrees with the fundamental picture above.
In other words - I’d be a little more careful trading the pair long this time - the referential currency pair has just hit its long-term Resistance and will need more momentum to really break above it in a substantial way…
And, as usual, be advised that what is being presented to you here is a very simplified technical analysis, and you are under no circumstances advised to understand it as a trade signal or recommendation. To actually deploy a trade, you should have it backed by a full-scope technical examination, that we at Gepard Investments, Inc. like to call the Trading System, following a clearly defined Trading Plan.
Now, in order to master and deploy a working, back-tested GEPARD trading system (either short-, or mid-, or long-term) you need the access codes to enter the community of GEPARD traders. Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining our community and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis, News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
Banking Sector - Signs of Revival ??
By Marek W. Stupka | May 9, 2009
Apart from the fact that equity markets have been surprising all investment sceptics lately by posting higher than expected levels, there are some good news coming from the US banking sector as well that add another spark to the “bottoming-out-of-recession-is-already-happening” camp. And, as we all know, US banks is where it all began…
The Obama administration has given assurances US banks will be allowed to raise less than the $74.6bn in equity mandated by stress tests if earnings over the next six months will be higher than regulators’ forecasts. This agreement means some banks may not have to raise as much equity through share issues and asset sales as the market is expecting. It could also increase the incentive for banks to book profits in the next two quarters.
Banks will have about a month from now to announce their capital-raising plans, and 6 full months to put them to work.
This is a great, great news for all players in the banking industry (currently under the so called “Stress Test”), since if their operating profits will be greater than the government’s stress-case forecast for the second and third quarter, they would receive credit for the difference. This, in turn, would reduce their need to raise fresh equity from other sources.
As we are aware of positive news like the above (and not just one or two pieces of them..) blowing fresh breeze into the sails of the Capital Markets and serving as catalysts of market sentiment, we are beginning to see how the so called “risk appetite” of many investors slowly starts to unleash. Therefore, in the light of the above, we at Gepard Investments, Inc. prefer trading along with the euro bulls at the moment. This renewed euro-strength sentiment is also backed by the 1d EURUSD Ichimoku analysis which shows the price distinctly leaving the uncertainty of the Kumo cloud, and moving high into the bull territory.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
Now Really. What Started the Recession ??
By Marek W. Stupka | April 24, 2009
With many investors finally being “sick and tired of being sick and tired”, and with some macros evidently showing signs of bottoming, winds of hope are being blown into the sails of the capital markets. Looking retrospectively at the mess behind us, people ask: What has really caused this?? What’s started the recession, in the first place?
There are, of course, many theories trying to answer this question. In any case, I don’t believe the recession trigger was a highly-complicated matter that only a limited number of carefully selected economists has the right to understand.
I believe everybody should know what the recession trigger was to really understand the current status-quo and the possibilities for the future. I also believe we should all do our part so that similar things won’t happen in our future world.
First of all, the 2008-09 recession had been caused by greed. By limitless, uncensored greed of the top managers and owners of the biggest financial institutions, mostly in the USA but also in other countries of our Western world. To be specific, let’s just mention one genuine example of a financial giant that has: A. Played its part in triggering the recession, B. Had to face the music and pay the price when the crisis hit.
A perfect example is the former biggest insurer in the United States - American Insurance Group. When the storm came, AIG was two companies. One was a rock solid insurance company. It made money the old fashioned way. It had terrific management, and offered steady, quality insurance. Its tables were not fraudulent, it was insured by the states and heavily regulated. This forced AIG to be above board and had a regular earnings stream. It made money over centuries! Not a lot of companies can say that.
Now the top managers and owners of the AIG group took this triple-A-rated company and decided to throw a giant hedge fund under its umbrella. The whole motivation was pure, irresponsible, non-censored greed of the AIG big sharks. If it worked out, they’d all have made billions of dollars. Unfortunately, the risk was enormous - and it just didn’t. The people who set up this hedge fund literally rolled the dice on the whole company.
Now, let’s wind down the whole thing. This is the same frustration with Citigroup and Bank of America, the same story you hear from other banks, insurers, even non-financial institutions all over the globe, too. We all now pay the consequences for the fact that somewhere, sometime not long ago, some monkey boss decided to “roll the dice” and jeopardize an otherwise sound and healthy business by creating a hedge fund right next to it under the same hood - that sucked out all the money from the healthy operations once the recession storm finally hit both of them !!
The real problem, of course, was not the existence of the hedge funds themselves, but the extremely risky assets they unanimously began to invest in, since “everybody had been doing it at the time”. It was that being a “monkey boss” became a new fashion among the big sharks…
Another reason to the recession was the governmental tolerance of extensive indebtness, either institutional or individual, caused by the fact that what the former US Government really stood for was - when we peel down all the rubbish - the war itself. But I have already expressed my views on this issue several times, feel free to search the Archives to find more.
So you see, for the future, it is up to every one who is in the top management position to simply realize the consequences of accepting a risk level that is too high. And here as well as in trading, by the way, the same principle applies: IT PAYS TO STAY CONSERVATIVE. ESPECIALLY OVER THE LONG HAUL. IF YOU WANT TO AVOID YOUR PERSONAL RECESSION IN TRADING, YOU SHOULD KEEP THIS SIMPLE RULE !!
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
As Forecasted, EUR Continues to Gain !!
By Marek W. Stupka | April 2, 2009
Those traders that have listened to my long-term forecasts predicting EURUSD to rise long before it did (old posts can be found in the Archives of this blog) are now several hundred pips richer. Let’s look at the charting...
The bullish convergence scenario in the 1W chart proved to work as smoothly as it was foretold. In the 1D chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ] we can see that my forecast came out at the very bottom of the long-term price action.
Note that there’s another bullish convergence, agreeing with the indicators, this time in the 1D chart above. This simple technical setup suggests a continuing movement to the north in the days or weeks to come. However, I’d be a little more careful this time - the referential currency pair nears its long-term Resistance found in the weekly chart (not charted in here)…
N.B. Those of you who do not understand what the crap we are talking about are welcome to apply to my 1-on-1 course where Convergence/Divergence Scenarios are explained in great detail.
And, as usual, be advised that what is being presented to you here is a very simplified technical analysis, and you are under no circumstances advised to understand it as a trade signal or recommendation. To actually deploy a trade, you should have it backed by a full-scope technical examination, that we at Gepard Investments, Inc. like to call the Trading System, following a clearly defined Trading Plan.
Now, in order to master and deploy a working, back-tested GEPARD trading system (either short-, or mid-, or long-term) you need the access codes to enter the community of GEPARD traders. Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining our community and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
And Indeed - EUR Moved Up as Predicted!
By Marek W. Stupka | March 13, 2009
In my last technical post I predicted EURUSD to move upwards - and it did. We at GI still prefer profiting from trading long (either short- or mid-term) on this pair, following the Convergence Scenario present in 1W chart.
Note the bullish convergence scenario in the chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ]. This simple technical setup suggests a continuing movement to the north in the days or weeks to come. So far, traders that listened to my prophecy and traded on it via a back-tested trading system are now about 300 pips richer…
N.B. Those of you who do not understand what the crap we are talking about are welcome to apply to my 1-on-1 course where Convergence/Divergence Scenarios are explained in great detail.
Note, however, that what is being presented to you here is just a very simplified technical analysis, and you are under no circumstances advised to understand it as a trade signal or recommendation. To actually deploy a trade, you should have it backed by a full-scope technical examination, that we at Gepard Investments, Inc. like to call the Trading System, following a clearly defined Trading Plan.
Now, in order to master and deploy a working, back-tested GEPARD trading system (either short-, or mid-, or long-term) you need the access codes to enter the community of GEPARD traders. Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining our community and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 5 Comments »
We Are Big, Give Us the Money !!
By Marek W. Stupka | March 8, 2009
With the recession signs now more obvious than ever, it has become a fine fashion among the big sharks to profit from the advantage of being large. In the course of the past few months, we have seen CEOs of multi-billion companies coming to their political leaders to, bluntly put, shamelessly ask for money. Tons of them. Can’t you see? We need it. WE ARE BIG!
Take this case, for examle: AIG, the biggest insurance group in the USA, revealed a net loss very close to $100bn for 2008. True, $64bn in fourth-quarter charges related to restructuring and so-called “market disruption”, for example, played a huge part. Fundamentally, though, AIG’s core insurance operations are buried by losses spewing from many troubled parts of the business. The Treasury acknowledged that more government support (another $30 bln) will be required in managing the company’s overhaul. Furthermore, the emphasis placed on AIG’s role as a significant counterparty, plus the complexity of a business spread across 130 countries with 400 regulators, indicates that the government is committed to keeping AIG on taxpayer-funded life support, while protecting its counterparties (the large banks) from losses.
Let us just remember that it is the same insurance group that was given one huge government financial injection last year. This year, the verdict is: It’s not enough, give them more! Well then, this time, the giant is going down and is being turned into a set of smaller entities, of which some will live and some will die - if you ask me, this finally is the action that makes sense!
But we can see this same pretty outrageous pattern of big shark plea/government generous support behavior in almost every sector of almost every economy worldwide, from the banking giants to the automobile industry leaders.
Personally, I am not a huge fan of “Keynessian” approach to the government role in economy. Sure, in times when the economy cycle is bottoming, the government can’t just sit on the sidelines and watch. But spending taxpayers’ money on the expense of future generations, many times without the proper required feedback on what exactly the money was used for, just seems to make no sense at all. Speaking of AIG, for instance, it is a sadly known fact that the company top management members were found on an expensive hunting trip in England just after they received the first government bailout package last year.
Surely, many governments act like there is no tommorrow and the money is being printed for free in the comfort of their expensively decorated offices. But the opposite is true - every penny of the debt a nation manages to generate has to be paid back, sooner or later, including the interest. Many times the price of the payback is sinking even deeper in the recession waters.
The last unemployment report is just another proof of the statement above. The US unemployment rate jumped more than anticipated to 8.1 percent - the highest since December 1983 - from 7.6 percent. The US economy axed 651,000 jobs in February.
Well, with all this bad news on the table, I receive feedback from many traders wondering how exactly do I see the future and fate of the US and global economy. Despite the bad situation we’re in, my answer is still the same - I am a short-term pessimist but a long-term optimist. Once the wheels of the US economy find their bottom, and a solid fundamental reason for an upside momentum (which may be shockingly trivial), the wave and spur generated by it might take many by surprise. There are new opportunities ahead of us, all we have to do (globally speaking) is to weather the present storm.
In the meantime, of course, the FOREX market is more alive than ever and has by no means lost its profit potential. Want a proof of this statement? The positive results we at Gepard Investments keep getting every week speak louder than words. In my previous post, please read more about the currency market money-making potential in times of crisis…
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
Profiting on FOREX While Wall Street Slumps !!
By Marek W. Stupka | February 28, 2009
Friday has been another hectic day on Wall Street. Even before trading started, two major fundamental stories had influenced traders’ sentiment in a major way. First one was the partial nationalization of the Citigroup which - to put it mildly - left many people feeling quite uncomfortable and second one was the revised US GDP for the last quarter of 2008.
The original estimate for contraction of the Gross Domestic Product growth in the USA in the last 3 months of 2008 was 3.8%. This has now been pulled down to 6.2%. Such abrupt revision represents the sharpest decline in GDP since 1982. In all this terrible piece of news there is, fortunately, one ray of hope: if we scrutinize the details of the report we find that the GDP revision was caused partially by a drop in inventories which implies that there will be less need for cuts in inventories and production this year. In any case, however, this is still a very negative set of data.
At about the same time, the US Government agreed to become the biggest single shareholder in Citigroup, in the latest attempt to save the ailing financial group and to shore up the country’s banking system. The partial nationalization will give the government a stake of up to 36% in the troubled group, trying to recover a fading giant that once used to be among the world’s largest financial institutions.
Later on in the afternoon, a new melancholy has been imparted into the Wall Street blues during an announcement that General Electric, once the US biggest company, is slashing its dividends for the first time since 1938.
These worrying reports came out after weeks of fundamental data strings falling almost entirely in the negative territory. Wall Street had no other choice but to get out of positions in the troubled equities which implied the S&P to close below 735 - the lowest level this index has posted since December 1996. DJIA closed near to 7,000 which is also below the levels from November 2008.
Now, let’s move from the unpredictable world of equity trading to the fairly recognizable universe of FOREX trading. If we look at Friday’s price action in all FOREX majors we see nothing else but a series of predictable price patterns. EURUSD has been posting moves within a distinct channel (or rather trannel, as we like to call it here at GI), creating a perfect playground for applying the Sherlock Market Personality rules. GBPUSD acted very much in the same fashion, only moving a lot more, as usual. USDJPY has been topping on its extensive gains, preparing ground for the Alexander Market Personality. Etc. We have seen no dramatic volatility or brutal price moves into the long-uncharted territories as was the case with shares all over the world.
If you wonder how to recognize various market personalities and profit from this recognition using my propritary CONFIRMATOR (mid-term) Trading System, or you you want to know more about The CANAAL (short-term) or The PERSONALIZED ICHIMOKU Trading systems, you are welcome to drop me an email with your questions. N.B. Note that answers to your specific trade setups might be limited and you might be recommended to apply for the 1-on-1 Training prior to getting my full attention…
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
EUR Ready for a Corrective Upmove !!
By Marek W. Stupka | February 27, 2009
The fundamental reports published over the past few days have brought several shockingly surprising data sets, negative both for the Eurozone and the USA. One typical example is the Q4 2008 Gross Domestic Product which was revised for the US under -6% y/y and for Germany under -2% y/y.
These bluntly negative numbers triggered several spontaneous and very volatile price actions, including the one seen in the EURUSD chart last week. In any case, as said earlier, we at GI still prefer profiting on the long trades (either short- or mid-term) with this pair, following the evident convergence scenario present in the long-term 1W chart.
Note the bullish convergence scenario in the 1W chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ]. This simple technique suggests change of the current downtrend and a swing movement to the north in the days or weeks to come. N.B. Those of you who do not understand how to trade on convergence/divergence scenarios are welcome to apply to my 1-on-1 course where C/D Ss are explained in great detail.
Note, however, that what is being presented to you here is just a very simplified technical analysis, and you are under no circumstances advised to understand it as a trade signal or recommendation. To actually deploy a trade, you should have it backed by a full-scope technical examination, that we at Gepard Investments, Inc. like to call the Trading System, following a clearly defined Trading Plan.
Now, in order to master and deploy a working, back-tested GEPARD trading system (either short-, or mid-, or long-term) you need the access codes to enter the community of GEPARD traders. Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining our community and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 4 Comments »
Why Do Traders Lose? (3)
By Marek W. Stupka | January 25, 2009
I keep receiving emails from trading newbies saying they have just blown their account to the stratosphere. Therefore, I decided to re-publish on the title page my original blog article named “Why Do Traders Lose?” since information contained in this short text can save novice traders out there from further trading losses and profound disappointment.
ACCORDING TO AN INDEPENDENT STATISTICS, AS MANY AS 89% OF ALL TRADERS END UP LOSING THEIR MONEY INVESTED IN TRADING !!! READ ON. I’LL EXPLAIN WHY…
Most of the traders I know - including myself - went into trading because they wanted more freedom. It is a great prospect to be able to make unlimited amounts of money anywhere on the planet with just a laptop and an internet connection. Or, isn’t it?
Well, without almost a single exception, this cool-n-easy way of making fast cash on trading is soon replaced by feelings of profound frustration, anger, and even bitterness.
Trading is no amateur’s game. After a couple of weeks of trading, a trading newbie is usually ready to admit he or she needs to really learn how to trade before going live again, or, worse, to quit this whole “gambling nonsense” for good.
First thing I say when approached by such a frustrated trading newcomer is: Welcome to the trading world! This very same experience is, in fact, common to almost every trader that ever existed (you guessed it, including myself again…). Just study the history of the great investors, from the trading legends like Jesse Livermore, Bernard Baruch, and Edward Francis Hutton, to investment superstars like George Soros and Warren Buffet. All of them, at some point of their career (usually near to its start), managed to lose money.
The initial loss is some sort of a “baptism” for every trader. That is why, when mentoring a new student, I always guide him/her to start trading on a demo account. And to load the first live account with just a very small amount of money (preferably few hundred dollars). It is absolutely vital to make the first losing experience as painless as possible.
Only after a trader goes through what I described above, he or she is ready to begin with the real trading education. The trading pro realizes the true scope of risks attached to trading, and thus devotes him- or herself to digging deep into the Technical Analysis, and to learn how to trade conservatively in order to make rather smaller amounts of profit, but make them consistently and over the long haul. Those traders who do NOT pass this point, usually quit trading. They are responsible for the shockingly high 89% of trading losers.
Let us now talk a bit about the reasons WHY traders really lose money. Since I was able to talk to many traders from different corners of this wonderful planet, I can honestly say that majority of them show the same reasons to the trading failure.
THE MOST FREQUENT REASONS ARE:
1. No quality trading education and know-how;
2. Poor, or nonexisting, trading plan;
3. Lack of trading discipline;
4. Underestimating the importance of money management;
5. Trading on inner “impulses” or “inspirations”;
6. Trading with the money that one cannot afford to lose;
7. Knowing a little, or nothing, about the psychology of trading.
I personally went through all of the stages of the trading education. In fact, I designed my FOREX Training to actually help ME first to trade better. Yes, I trade my own systems. Yes, I obey my trade signals. And I’m successful. Now you can join me - and be too…
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
What Do TRADERS Want? (5)
By Marek W. Stupka | January 24, 2009
[ This original article contains inspiring facts hotter these days more then ever before. So I decided to re-publish it. ] People think of different things when they first get into trading - from buying super fast cars, through launching gigantic corporations, to helping others…
I’ve heard a whole range of prospects traders intend to do with the money they are to make on trading (usually, however, it is the money they still don’t have) – from buying own islands, through purchasing holiday villas, to helping defeat poverty in the Third World.
Surely, everything is possible! It is absolutely normal to have dreams like these! The market we’re in has unlimited potential. Plus, there are people in this market who really DO live their dreams.
However, it is equally necessary to realize that, in order to reach your goals, you will have to work, and work hard. There is no easy money to be made on FOREX, in the long-term. Sure, you can win random profit once or twice (even without knowing what you’re doing), but so you can in any casino in Monte Carlo, or Las Vegas.
If you want to trade with consistent profits, it will take commitment. Commitment to learn as much as you can, to act professionally, to never stop working on improving your trading strategies, and to not get discouraged by occasional failures. Commitment to dig deep. To activate your every braincell in order to achieve the promise land: Trade with consistent profits.
But don’t get discouraged. Many traders have been able to reach the promise land. Now, will you be the next one of them..? The answer is up to you right now.
Topics: Miscellanous | 3 Comments »
Citi Bank, Merrill Lynch, and the Inauguration!
By Marek W. Stupka | January 17, 2009
It’s been a busy week for stock traders. Citigroup as well as Merrill Lynch, which just merged with Bank of America, reported huge losses for the last quarter of 2008. FED agreed to inject billions of dollars in these banks to save them from catastrophy…
Merrill Lynch – owned by Bank of America – suffered a $21.5bn operating loss as the value of mortgage-backed assets plunged in the past three months of 2008. Bank of America which finalised an $18.8bn takeover of Merrill two weeks ago received a $20bn capital infusion and a backstop on $118bn of troubled assets. BoA told the US Government in December that it would not be able to close the deal without help.
The biggest US commercial bank reported a $2.4bn loss in a quarter Merrill’s disastrous performance. Its shares fell nearly 14 per cent.
Citigroup deepened the depth of problems in the US banking sector by reporting an $8.3bn net loss, its fifth consecutive quarter in the red. The troubled financial group suffered nearly $28bn in writedowns and loan loss provisions in 4Q of 2008.
Citi’s loss for the year 2008 was more than $18bn. The company came up with a Government backed plan, also called “good bank-bad bank”. The plan is to isolate some $800bn worth of unwanted assets and businesses into a separate unit called Citi Holdings. This unit will be fully backed by the Government. Citi’s key businesses of commercial, investment and retail banking will be housed in a unit called Citicorp managing about $1.1 bn. By doing this, the bank returned to its original name from about 10 years ago to cover its healthy assets and continue in its daily business.
According to Wall Street stock traders, last week’s only highlight for them was the prospect fo the inauguration of Mr. Obama who will become the first US Afro-American president. With Mr. Obama taking the office, many expect the system to perform better, at least in the mid- to long-term.
See why it pays choosing your traded instrument wisely? If you are a stock trader and last week you have experienced another one of those fierce setbacks, I strongly recommend you to quit the unpredictable world of stock trading and join our FX trading community. You are warmly welcome to apply for the 1-on-1 FOREX Training, described by many as one of the best educational interfaces on trading on the net, and learn how to trade this predictable, fascinating market with consistent profits.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
FOREX - Where Is the MONEY in 2009??
By Marek W. Stupka | January 3, 2009
The new year 2009 is here. After the celebrations, we want to get right down to business. What the year holds for us traders? Most importantly, what exactly should we look at to find another set of profits..? Read on to find answers to these and other questions.
The opinions of experts on the future course of the EURUSD, the referential FX currency pair, vary. Some fund managers predict the dollar to rise based on “flying back to safety” - the same pattern of behaviour we observed in the markets during the late 2008 crisis. Others prophecy for the dollar to decline, pointing to the fact that stocks are already showing signs of strengthening and the dollar market moves simply post a reversed correlation to the stock price moves.
As far as my prospect for the EURUSD is concerned, at the moment I do not prefer to open a long-term position for this pair. As you can see in my last technical post, the 1Week and 1Day charts for EURUSD do not show any clear long-term pattern (for a bit more detailed technical analysis read my previous post).
The best performer of the year 2008, JPY, also seems to post no long-term technical signal to traders in the beginning of the new year.
For the sake of maximizing the profit-to-risk ratio already many times discussed in this blog I strongly advise every one out of the growing number of my students as well as the general trading audience to only take technically 100% justified, mid-term trades in the beginning of 2009. These have attached the lowest risk obtainable in this market.
The technical justification means that you should only take trades in direction of a recognized trend. You should ALWAYS deploy strict trading discipline. You should avoid trading as your mood strikes you, but have a clearly written trading plan instead, and follow a proven, thoroughly back-tested trading system. As all of my 1-on-1 students are well aware of, we at Gepard Investments, Inc. use THE CONFIRMATOR system to confirm every single one of our mid-term trades. The system has been back-tested and perfected over the years of use in real market environment, and now produces healthy profits for its every practitioner (only my paying 1-on-1 students have access to the system’s full definition, along with 2 other systems - short- and long-term as well as the rest of the FOREX trading education). Some of my trainees even mastered the system so well that they are now able to trade with results better than I do !!
Topics: Miscellanous | 5 Comments »
What’s Rising in 2009: The Euro or the Dollar??
By Marek W. Stupka | January 3, 2009
With the arrival of 2009, many currency traders wonder what the next 12 months are going to look like for the two most traded currencies in the world. Is the dollar going to strengthen, as it did over the last couple of months of 2008? Or is the euro going to prevail, as had been the case in the long months before the 2008 crisis?
Since the New Year’s Eve, I have been asked this same question over and over again. My answer is: DO NOT TRY TO INVEST IN ANY LONG-TERM FX POSITION THIS YEAR !! After the emotion-driven market behavior in the late 2008, the markets are simply best set for short- to mid-term trades. Just look at the simplified technical analysis of the 1W and 1d EURUSD charts above and below, and observe their volatile character. TRUE MONEY in this market is to be made by following a proven, back-tested short- to mid-term trading system. No long-term market prophecy would make sense.
Strictly and with no exceptions, we at Gepard Investments, Inc. use The CANAAL for signaling openings of our short-term trading positions, and The CONFIRMATOR for signaling openings of our mid-term trading positions. For a better understanding of the basics on how these two systems work, perform a search for the systems’ names in the Search Box in the right navigation pane above…
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
Euro’s 10th Anniversary !!
By Marek W. Stupka | December 31, 2008
On New Year’s Eve, the Europe’s single currency marks its 10th birthday. Since its launch on January 1, 1999, the euro has proven that it really can deliver what so many of the Old Continent planned for it - to become a powerful greenback’s competitor…
Europe’s single currency was born out of tension. After the foreign exchange turmoil in the early nineties it became obvious that the non-effective “fixed but adaptive” currency exchange mechanism has to be replaced either by a set of local floating currencies, which would actually mean taking a step back, or by a monetary union. The second option prevailed, although the risk of the unknown was high in the beginning.
10 years later, Europeans can sigh with relief that the decision was worth the trouble. As Germans gave up their Deutsche Marks that were actually at the very core of their Wirtschaft Wonder (Economy Miracle), French their Franks, and Austrians their Schillings, the Europe’s single currency that replaced them became one of the most stable and trusted currencies in the world. In 2006, the total value of euro notes in circulation overtook that of dollar bills. The respect the euro has earned as a store of value is also shown in the rise of official reserves held in euros: 27 per cent of the 2008 world total, up from 18 per cent a decade ago. Over the same period, the dollar’s share fell to 63 per cent from 71 per cent.
The power of the euro notes becomes more and more obvious along with the continuing recession which, although affecting in a negative way both the Old and the New Continent, still seems to raise its ugly head higher in the US. In Quantum of Solace, the latest James Bond film, James uses euros because, as one of the counterparties notes, “the dollar isn’t what it once was. The cost of war.”
Of course, to claim that the US dollar is no longer the world’s Nr.1 currency would still be preliminary, if not unwise. There is a strong tradition attached to the US banknote - many call it the “safe haven” of investments, or assign to it the two most needed attributes: safety and liquidity. This might not change as soon as the euro enthusiasts tend to believe. One of the many reasons is that hedge funds - the true market makers in this industry - are in large numbers denominated in the US dollars. And while this is the case, we can still reasonably expect the currency markets to “fly back to safety” in times of trouble, as they did over the last hectic couple of months…
Topics: Miscellanous | 1 Comment »
Detroit Gets the Government Money !!
By Marek W. Stupka | December 31, 2008
US car makers were finally able to take the long expected sigh of relief. Their shares skyrocketed following news that the U.S. government agreed to bolster GMAC, the former financing arm of General Motors, with a nice, round 6 billion dollar aid …
Late on Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department offered funds from the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) to GMAC, the financing firm of General Motors that is still 40% owned by the auto making company.
The Treasury commited itself to buy a $5.0 billion stake in GMAC and will give GM up to $1.0 billion to invest in the financial firm.
This step was taken following a very emotional discussion in both US Government and Senate, and is supposed to facilitate auto financing for consumers and mute fears of insolvency for a company that has struggled under the global economic slowdown.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
FED’s Rate Slash Causes the Dollar to Fall !!
By Marek W. Stupka | December 18, 2008
The dollar’s fall against the euro so far this week has been the largest and steepest since the inception of the single currency in 1999. Greenback came under renewed selling pressure after the Federal Reserve decided on Tuesday to slash US interest rates to zero.
Consequently, the dollar declined to a 13-year low against the Japanese yen and a 10-week low against the European single currency. And so, it seems that the greenback strength and safe haven status which has been the case in the currency markets since this Summer is now nothing but history.
The Fed decision drove short-term interest rate differentials between the US and the eurozone back to the highs of earlier this year. This simply means that interest rates in Europe are substantially higher than those in the US again.
As we are well aware of from the past decisions of major central banks, interest rate cuts as dramatic as the one we’ve seen on Tuesday have not only immediate impact on the markets, but also serve as catalysts of market sentiment in the days and weeks to come. Therefore, in the light of the above, we at Gepard Investments, Inc. prefer trading along with the euro bulls at the moment. This renewed euro-strength sentiment is also backed by the 1d EURUSD Ichimoku analysis which shows the price distinctly leaving the uncertainity of the Kumo cloud, and moving high into the bull territory.
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
EURUSD Ready for a Corrective Move
By Marek W. Stupka | December 14, 2008
A lot has happened in the investment world over the last couple of weeks. We have seen the G4 central banks cutting interest rates to historically low levels. We have seen the US unemployment skyrocketing. We have seen emotional discussions on the necessity to bail out the US auto industry (first the talks collapsed, now the US Treasury signals a rescue). OK, wrap it up, Marek! All we want to know is: Quo Vadis (Where are you heading), EURUSD?
Examine the 1d EURUSD chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ]. The referential currency pair has just reached the green Resistance trend line and is about to post a corrective move. Note, however, that the sentiment is slowly turning against the USD bulls, so expect the pair to attack the green R again in near future. Once the attack succeeds and the trend line is broken, the pair is well positioned to rise.
Those of my students who are practitioning the traditional Japanese Ichimoku Kinko Hyo strategy (shown in the chart above) are advised to wait until the price breaks out of the Kumo cloud in the chart above - since, as we know, all of the day traders better stay on the sidelines while the market is within the Kumo. Once the Kumo is broken and all 5 of the traditional Ichy signals are in place, the time will be ripe to shoot north in accordance with the Ichimoku Trading System.
Of course, to really be able to MAKE MONEY on setups like above you need a much more sophisticated technical toolset than what is being presented here. The 3 fully working, back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits are at full disposal to every participant of my 1-on-1 Forex Training. They comprise exact rules on when, what, how much, and for how long, you are supposed to trade…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems mentioned above, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 5 Comments »
Is Your Mentor a Scammer? (2)
By Marek W. Stupka | December 5, 2008
I am being bombarded by guys from the New Continent sending emails asking what exactly can one expect from the 1-on-1 Training and what can one find inside the exclusive training website. This is the answer.
Due to the ever increasing number of second- through twelfth-grade FOREX mentors many times operating with fraud, scam, and fake (or nonexisting) training interfaces, I decided to show to my audience a small piece of what’s really inside my training website. Here it is:
The 1-on-1 Training comprises 7 and 1/2 weeks full of quality training materials, 3 tested trading systems, 24 lessons, large number of interactive stuff, system updates, videos, trade signals, online reference, and other support documents. The interactive guide above is actually one of the 4 User’s Manuals on how to use the exclusive training interface.
Besides having the chance to work with me on a daily basis (over the emails, IM, and even phone), my 1-on-1 students also have access to several other cool features of the training. One of them is the online Trade Journal. Check out the User’s Manual below:
Proved above, my 1-on-1 Training is really a precise, comprehensive, and definitely no-fake training environment. By using the training tools contained in the exclusive training interface, I have already helped many people from around the world to become better traders and shift their trading results from the red zone to the black zone. Speaking of which, you are welcome to participate too.
Topics: Miscellanous | 1 Comment »
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