Why Do Traders Lose? (4)
By Marek W. Stupka | November 6, 2008
I’ve been recieving feedback from traders worldwide complaining about losses recorded during “Shoctober 2008″. Therefore, I decided to re-publish my original blog article named “Why Do Traders Lose?” since information contained in this short text can save novice traders out there from further trading losses and profound disappointment.
ACCORDING TO AN INDEPENDENT STATISTICS, AS MANY AS 89% OF ALL TRADERS END UP LOSING THEIR MONEY INVESTED IN TRADING !!! READ ON. I’LL EXPLAIN WHY…
Most of the traders I know - including myself - went into trading because they wanted more freedom. It is a great prospect to be able to make unlimited amounts of money anywhere on the planet with just a laptop and an internet connection. Or, isn’t it?
Well, without almost a single exception, this cool-n-easy way of making fast cash on trading is soon replaced by feelings of profound frustration, anger, and even bitterness.
Trading is no amateur’s game. After a couple of weeks of trading, a trading newbie is usually ready to admit he or she needs to really learn how to trade before going live again, or, worse, to quit this whole “gambling nonsense” for good.
First thing I say when approached by such a frustrated trading newcomer is: Welcome to the trading world! This very same experience is, in fact, common to almost every trader that ever existed (you guessed it, including myself again…). Just study the history of the great investors, from the trading legends like Jesse Livermore, Bernard Baruch, and Edward Francis Hutton, to investment superstars like George Soros and Warren Buffet. All of them, at some point of their career (usually near to its start), managed to lose money.
The initial loss is some sort of a “baptism” for every trader. That is why, when mentoring a new student, I always guide him/her to start trading on a demo account. And to load the first live account with just a very small amount of money (preferably few hundred dollars). It is absolutely vital to make the first losing experience as painless as possible.
Only after a trader goes through what I described above, he or she is ready to begin with the real trading education. The trading pro realizes the true scope of risks attached to trading, and thus devotes him- or herself to digging deep into the Technical Analysis, and to learn how to trade conservatively in order to make rather smaller amounts of profit, but make them consistently and over the long haul. Those traders who do NOT pass this point, usually quit trading. They are responsible for the shockingly high 89% of trading losers.
Let us now talk a bit about the reasons WHY traders really lose money. Since I was able to talk to many traders from different corners of this wonderful planet, I can honestly say that majority of them show the same reasons to the trading failure.
THE MOST FREQUENT REASONS ARE:
1. No quality trading education and know-how;
2. Poor, or nonexisting, trading plan;
3. Lack of trading discipline;
4. Underestimating the importance of money management;
5. Trading on inner “impulses” or “inspirations”;
6. Trading with the money that one cannot afford to lose;
7. Knowing a little, or nothing, about the psychology of trading.
I personally went through all of the stages of the trading education. In fact, I designed my FOREX Training to actually help ME first to trade better. Yes, I trade my own systems. Yes, I obey my trade signals. And I’m successful. Now you can join me - and be too…
Topics: Miscellanous | 6 Comments »
Yesterday, US History Has Been Made !!
By Marek W. Stupka | November 5, 2008
Last night, Senator Barrack Obama ceased to exist. President-elect Barrack Obama was born. He was elected to become the first African-American president in the US history. Starting from January 20, 2009, he will have a chance to lead the USA towards the so much anticipated change. Despite current euphory, however, there are serious problems he will have to face.
There is no doubt - when I first heard about the results I was delighted by the news, and so were millions of open-minded people around the world. Congratulations!
However, there are still deep underlying problems that America needs to solve in the months and maybe even years to come. Mr. Obama might have a really, really hard time to stand up to his pre-election promises since - let’s admit it - the country and the global economy are in an unbelievably poor shape (read more about this issue in my previous posts).
Obama’s victory translates to a very likely change for better in the financial market field. Especially in the long haul. In any case, let’s not forget that the immediate situation in the stock markets might not be as pink and bright as we might think judging by the euphory of the moment. Just follow any economy calendar and learn why. However, the solid and predictable behavior of the FOREX majors during October 2008, the worst month in Wall Street in 27 years, lets us currency traders feel relieved that WE DEFINITELY ARE IN THE RIGHT MARKET (note that this does not go to some exotic crosses and currencies with low trading volumes). The impact of Wall Street turbulences on our trading is delayed and considerably muted. Happy trading!
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
US Elections and the Markets
By Marek W. Stupka | November 1, 2008
The US presidential elections are just around the corner and many analysts (me including) are of the opinion that they will influence the markets positively. This simple statement was proven to be true during the past elections, it simply is an implication of removing the current political instability from the White House.
Compare it, if you will, to a company hiring a new CEO. The new boss usually gets sort of a few-day honeymoon no matter how bad things are with the company. The same thing is very likely to happen to the US economy - the new president means a new atmosphere of hope and stability which will definitely mirror positively in (mostly) the (stock) markets.
Note also that I do not believe in the new president to immediately mean a sustained positive influence on the markets, at least not in the short term, simply because the US economy will have to face other, extremely important, changes in the end of next week: A. The NFP change measuring the broad dynamics in employment, and B. Quarterly results of several big US corporations. These, if coming out worse than expected, might very well offset the euphory of the so much anticipated end of the longest presidential race in US history.
As far as the two candidates and their long-term positive influence on both the stock and the currency markets are concerned, I have pretty much explained my views in one of my previous posts. [ click here to read it ]
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
FED’s Merciless Interest Rate Cut
By Marek W. Stupka | October 30, 2008
On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates 50 bp bringing them down to 1.0%. The rate cut is intended to ease the pain of an economy that has “slowed markedly”, and has brought interest rates to the level only achieved before once - amid the 2003 deflation scare.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues voted unanimously to cut their target for short-term interest rates to 1%. This level is supposed to offset the recent sharp tightening of credit conditions that threatens to plunge a weakening US economy into a recession.
US stocks immediately responded to the Fed’s move in a down-swing price action, but then moved higher. Investors also seem to be encouraged by reports that the US authorities might soon announce a new mortgage guarantee program to help restructuring home loans.
In parallel, there have been important things happening in the FOREX backyard, too. Japanese yen strengthened against greenback on expectations of a government bailout, reaching 98.00, the highest level since 1995. Apart from this move, the US dollar is now again widely perceived as “safe haven”, mostly due to liquidity concerns of the big hedge funds (most hedge funds are denominated in USD). These two trends generated A. Rebirth of the so called “carry trade” - if you don’t know the meaning, just search this site for the term, B. Excellent trading opportunities with any of the major currency pairs that includes the USD.
In these dramatic pre-elecion times, every trader needs to be aware of the true scope of trading opportunities out there. However, with every trading opportunity there is a certain level of risk involved. As the FOREX market has proven over the last weeks of turmoil it posts relatively low risk levels compared to other instruments. Now more than ever we see traders chosing currencies to be their playground (instead of risky equities or bonds).
If you have just found yourself in the lines above you are welcome to join my FOREX 1-on-1 Training no matter what the size of your planned investment is. Over the years of providing this unique training environment I have worked with professional traders as well as small individual investors. Some of my trainees even wrote “housewife” when asked what they do for a living. So the number of the students is high, but so is the comprehensiveness and benefit of the course. Feel free to apply today by sending a simple email explaining your trading experience, and your investment goals.
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
As Predicted on 10/21, US Dollar Skyrocketed !!
By Marek W. Stupka | October 26, 2008
Those of you who read my previous technical post and have followed my simple trading advice are now a few hundreds (thousands?, ten thousands? - it depends on how much you’ve invested) dollars richer. Note that the prediction has been accurate. Again !!!
The following statement is both true and powerful, and I have already mentioned it several times throughout this blog >> The FOREX market shows fantastic predictability and pattern recognition when compared with e.g. the stock or the bond markets (both now experiencing chaotic and unpredictable, bottom-headed slides) …
The price action in our 4h EURUSD chart [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ] is just another proof of the statement above. The referential currency pair made another fresh low, with USD skyrocketing to the levels predicted in the simple technical analysis from my last blog update (exploiting the convergence scenario). The recent Euro downmove brought money to every trader following my analysis.
Of course, to be able to REPEATEDLY CAPITALIZE on setups like the one you see above you need a much more sophisticated technical toolset than what is being presented here. The 3 fully working, back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits are at full disposal to every participant of my 1-on-1 Forex Training. They comprise exact rules on when, what, how much, and for how long, you are supposed to trade…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems mentioned above, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 2 Comments »
USD Listens to Bernanke & Global Markets!
By Marek W. Stupka | October 21, 2008
US dollar received support after FED Chairman, Mr. Bernanke, said that an additional US fiscal injection should be considered to help improve access to credit for consumers, homebuyers and businesses. USD also rose due to funding demand generated by big investment sharks…
We’ve already discussed that the FOREX market continues posting easily tradable patterns, even despite the equity markets make highly unpredictable, pre-election price moves. Currently, the currency market is traded in massive volumes - which is GREAT NEWS FOR ALL FX TRADERS since the liquidity of the world’s most liquid market is now even higher than the standard - with many big players in the industry withdrawing their money from risky equity instruments and pouring them into spot and future FOREX. This only proves right my claims made in the previous posts about the relatively low risk levels attached to FX trading…
Have a closer look at the 4h EURUSD chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ]. The referential currency pair made a fresh 1 and 1/2 year low, bringing the USD to the level from the beginning of 2007. Note the convergence scenario in the chart marked by red trend lines. This simple technique is helping us at Gepard Investments to capitalize on the continuing downmove as we speak.
Of course, to be able to MAKE MONEY on setups like the one you see above you need a much more sophisticated technical toolset than what is being presented here. The 3 fully working, back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits are at full disposal to every participant of my 1-on-1 Forex Training. They comprise exact rules on when, what, how much, and for how long, you are supposed to trade…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems mentioned above, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 2 Comments »
Capitalize on FOREX Even in Times of Turmoil !!
By Marek W. Stupka | October 9, 2008
Recent collapse in the stock and bond markets around the world brought a brand new perception of risk and strategic planning for all savvy investors. According to an expert article in the Financial Times, the fall of Lehman Brothers triggered a new era in investing, emphasizing simplicity and changing risky stock portfolios for their more conservative alternatives…
When it comes to conservatism and profit, I know of no better market than the foreign exchange. As I wrote in my recent technical posts even in times of great fluctuations and chaotic movements in the stock markets in the past few weeks, the FOREX markets held their technical patterns, and me and my students were able to profit from the rather muted, easily tradable moves generated by the storm out there.
Detailed description of the way to capitalize on trading FOREX is included in the 1-on-1 Training. In fact, this easy-to-follow training course is designed to be the most comprehensive expert training interface available online for individual traders from around the planet…
If you wonder what it takes to actually participate in the 1-on-1 Training, there’s an easy way to find out. Simply click here, and you will be taken to an informative website describing in great detail how the course works. Since the training seats are limited, it is a good idea to check the course availability by sending me an email at marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
Wind of Hope for the Investment World?
By Marek W. Stupka | October 3, 2008
Minutes ago, the US Congress passed the $700 billlion bailout plan. Despite the fact that many analysts, me including, find the plan deeply controversial, the atmosphere it conveyed while being advocated by both presidential candidates brought positive expectations to the investment community. And in the investment world, expectations are everything…
I’ve just watched the record of Obama’s speech regarding the bailout plan given few hours before the US Senate voted for it. Despite he stood for this plan (which, like I said, I find controversial) his speech calmed me down. And I am not alone. This is exactly the tone and atmosphere the markets respond positively to. As I wrote in my last blog post, this atmosphere creates positive expectations regarding the US (and thus global, as well) economy and its future fate. His words brought hope and seemed to re-establish people’s trust in the financial system. The man spoke with confidence, and everything he said made sense.
McCain, on the other hand, although supporting the bailout plan too, gave a speech during which many investors might have been asking what is it exactly that this guy is trying to say. He had repeatedly mentioned the country’s need for leadership, but somehow leadership is what his whole presentation failed to express.
And so, the recent poll results (Obama takes the lead in some of the swing states like Florida) really bring the wind of hope that the US system, and the global financial system as well, gets better after November 2008.
N.B. Here’s one important thing you should know: When it comes to US, I am not favoring any political party over another. This means my views are motivated solely economically. As a graduate from the most credited university of economics in my country, I am just responding to the global economy crisis from the economic point of view. The global economy, however, is tightly connected with the US economy, while the latter is directly influenced by the current political events happening in Washington. Hence my commentaries might seem politically biased, but believe me, they are not. Nevertheless, when the world politics is in fact made by people who undervaluate the importance of healthy economy and financial growth, I simply don’t like them and want them to be changed. As a professional trader, I prefer to have a stable and healthy financial system to a system threatening to collapse…
And so - in the context of the above - let’s trade FOREX, one of the most stable financial markets, staying relieved that the global financial system is on the right way to get in the prosperity zone again …
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
USA As a Giant Credit Card?
By Marek W. Stupka | September 30, 2008
If you look at the thinkflow and actions (some fortunately stopped from being taken) of the current American Government you swiftly get the impression that every mess the country finds itself in can simply be erased by just another ton of borrowed money. The American economy can always be handled as the most gigantic credit card in the world. Or, can’t it?
Unfortunately, no economy can afford to keep this attitude forever, and ever, end ever…, without having to face the music some day. There definitely are limits to the philosophy of extending the nation’s debt and calling it good for the system. Yesterday’s rejection of the Bush/Paulson bailout plan by the U.S. House, and the consequent fall in the stock markets, was a clear indication of this simple truth.
If you think about it, there are three pretty straightforward reasons to the current state of the US economy. They are: 1. The borrow-the-buck-and-don’t-think-about-tomorrow philosophy of a typical American consumer, and government for that matter; over the past few years promoted, sustained, and taken to even higher levels, by the US mortgage banks and their agents, 2. The war in Iraq which turned out to be as bizarre as it is money-consuming, 3. The current downslope of the global economy cycle.
An experienced Wall Street stock trader said that “…what markets really need right now is the atmosphere of decisiveness.” It is not the money. Pumping the borrowed cash into the economy’s pipes would be like giving an aspirin to a patient who’s got a developed cancer. Wall Street simply needs leadership, somebody in the presidential chair who would announce the war against indebtness and (at least pretend that he) know(s) what he’s doing. This is the only prescription to cure the illness and get in the prosperity zone again…
However, Mr. Bush’s political capital seems to be spent to the very last penny, and the country is on the edge of the next presidential elections. So the emotional race of the two candidates only adds fuel to the indecisiveness and uncertainty that has possessed America in the past weeks.
I GET FEEDBACK FROM STOCK TRADERS AROUND THE WORLD, SOME REALLY TERRIFIED AND EMOTIONALLY AS WELL AS FINANCIALLY EXHAUSTED. PLENTY DECIDE TO WAIT TILL THE ELECTIONS, OTHERS QUIT TRADING FOR GOOD.
HOWEVER, NOTE THAT FOREX TRADING HAS NOT EXPERIENCED ANY PLUMMETING LIKE WE’VE SEEN IN THE STOCK MARKETS LATELY. OBSERVE THE CHART ABOVE! CAN YOU SEE HOW THE CURRENCY MARKETS RESPONDED TO THE EVENTS OF THE PAST WEEKS? NO SUDDEN AND CHAOTIC VOLATILITY, JUST A SERIES OF TRADABLE TECHNICAL PATTERNS. AND THUS, MY ANSWER TO STOCK TRADERS IS ALWAYS THE SAME AS IT HAS BEEN FOR YEARS:
“QUIT THE UNPREDICTABLE AND CHAOTIC JUNGLE OF STOCK (AND BOND) TRADING, AND SWITCH TO TRADING CURRENCIES. TRADE FOREX AND YOU CAN EVEN CAPITALIZE ON SITUATIONS LIKE THE ONE WE SEE TODAY…”
Topics: News From Wall Street | 3 Comments »
What Do TRADERS Want? (5)
By Marek W. Stupka | September 23, 2008
[ This original article contains inspiring facts hotter these days more then ever before. So I decided to re-publish it. ] People think of different things when they first get into trading - from buying super fast cars, through launching gigantic corporations, to helping others…
I’ve heard a whole range of prospects traders intend to do with the money they are to make on trading (usually, however, it is the money they still don’t have) – from buying own islands, through purchasing holiday villas, to helping defeat poverty in the Third World.
Surely, everything is possible! It is absolutely normal to have dreams like these! The market we’re in has unlimited potential. Plus, there are people in this market who really DO live their dreams.
However, it is equally necessary to realize that, in order to reach your goals, you will have to work, and work hard. There is no easy money to be made on FOREX, in the long-term. Sure, you can win random profit once or twice (even without knowing what you’re doing), but so you can in any casino in Monte Carlo, or Las Vegas.
If you want to trade with consistent profits, it will take commitment. Commitment to learn as much as you can, to act professionally, to never stop working on improving your trading strategies, and to not get discouraged by occasional failures. Commitment to dig deep. To activate your every braincell in order to achieve the promise land: Trade with consistent profits.
But don’t get discouraged. Many traders have been able to reach the promise land. Now, will you be the next one of them..? The answer is up to you right now.
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
Currencies - One of the Safest Markets Today !!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 19, 2008
This week, fear has dominated the global stock markets. Black Monday and Terrible Tuesday tragedies described in my last post were followed by even deeper financial crisis, despite billion-dollar injections of major central banks. Newspapers around the world published picture of a Wall Street trader pressing a cellphone to his ear and crying in despair…
Stocks of several US, EU and Asian financial institutions felt to record lows, domino-effected by tragedies of the Lehman Brothers, AIG (mercifully helped by the US Government), Goldman Sachs and the like. Major stock indexes experienced chaotic volatility, pledging many traders’ accounts.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST DEVELOPMENT IN THE FOREX MARKETS BROUGHT NOTHING ELSE BUT A SERIES OF PREDICTABLE TECHNICAL PATTERNS!
The 4h EURUSD chart above shows a “classy” descending channel breakout followed by a triangle formation that is close to perfection! This exemplary and easily tradable triangle has been formed this very week, t.m. in the same period of time when stock and bond markets posted unpredictable, chaotic, and aggressive moves, causing that guy from the magazine photo to cry a river full of bitter tears…
Moreover, the 1d EURUSD chart has posted a beautiful correction towards the first Fibonacci level, so often seen in any non-turbulent market. And it’s not just the EURUSD. Check out the AUDUSD, for instance!
This article was written to prove how safe is the market we operate in. Want the reasoning? Simple. Our market is not influenced by the outcomes of specific companies or banks, rather by the outcomes of the world’s most prosperous countries. These are mostly scheduled in the economy calendars, leaving as small room for unexpected surprises as possible. In addition, world’s biggest economies are very hard to file for bankruptcy!
Apart from the above, FOREX has other advantages as well. Today, I want to challenge you to switch to trading currencies, whatever other market you trade (except maybe T-Bills, commodity futures, and some selected options). FOREX simply is one of the SAFEST MARKETS to trade! If you want to learn FOREX trading 1-on-1, write me an email and we will work things out for you whatever mess you’re in…
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis, News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
Wall Street Turmoil - Impact on the FX Market!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 16, 2008
Today, the global Financial Markets have experienced a turmoil that some describe as the beginning of a collapse comparing to the Asian Financial crisis of 1997/98, the Savings and Loans crisis of the 1980’s and 1990’s, and some say even the Great Depression. Richard Quest of CNN reported from London that stock traders in the city have already found a name for today’s market behaviour - “The Terrible Tuesday”.
Wall Street has truly been shaken at its very roots. Lehman Brothers, the world’s third largest securities firm, filed for bankruptcy due to a drain on capital and liquidity. Stocks of AIG, the biggest insurance giant in the US, fell under $4.00! Goldman Sachs Q3 earnings sank 70%!
As a result, the primary risk asset, the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average, surged over 500 points to close below 11,000 for the first time since July 17th. The S&P Volatility Index (VIX) tumbled more than 30 percent for the first time since the March. The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell an unbelievable 51 basis points on the the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts expectations; and even the crude dropped to $92 per barrel (this move, however, was predictable - see my previous post).
NOW, WHAT WAS THE INFLUENCE OF ALL THIS ON THE FOREX MARKETS? Here’s the thing you have to remember. As a rule, Wall Street turmoils only have MUTED immediate effect on currencies. This is one of the GREAT ADVANTAGES AND BEAUTIES of trading FX. You don’t have to be afraid of sudden price spikes caused by unexpected fundamental events like the ones you see above. These news ALWAYS hit the stock & bond markets first.
In contrast to the obvious crisis and unexpected volatility in Wall Street, today’s currency trading has not been much different from just another smooth trading day. In fact, the major fundamental story of the FX day - the scheduled FED interest rate decision - came in line with expectations and caused only a few, price-limited, technically predictable, and easily tradable moves.
See why it pays choosing your traded instrument wisely? If you are a stock trader and today you have experienced another one of those fierce setbacks, I strongly recommend you to quit the unpredictable world of stock trading and join our FX trading community. You are warmly welcome to apply for the 1-on-1 FOREX Training, described by many as one of the best educational interfaces on trading on the net, and learn how to trade this predictable, fascinating market with consistent profits.
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
Trade Oil in the Same Way As You Trade FOREX!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 10, 2008
Fancy the falling oil prices? I’ve got good news to share. This one is supposed to brighten your day even more! You can now capitalise on the fall (and on the future rise as well) of the crude oil futures in the same fashion as you are capitalising already on the recent EURUSD moves…
I’ve already mentioned this subject in one of my previous posts, but it seems many traders still do not realize the amazing trading potential you get once you learn to trade the FOREX market majors. The reason is simple. Since FOREX is the largest, and the most liquid, market in the world once you get familiar with trading FOREX with consistent profits you are literally able to trade almost everything.
Of course, there are technical differences to trading other instruments of the Financial Markets (with commodity futures, for instance, you would have to pay margin and brokerage fees, only trade in the time window your chosen commodity exchange is open, follow a different set of fundamentals, etc.) but the most important thing it takes to trade the markets you already know! You guessed it right … it is the technical analysis and the sophisticated trading strategies and systems we use when trading FX.
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
Euro Pushed South By the Freddie/Fannie Bailout!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 8, 2008
The US Government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac! This has been the Nr.1 fundamental story influencing the markets today. The dollar strenghtened within the 1h channel pushing the euro down south …
Although the market was expecting the bailout of the two largest US mortgage companies for some time, today’s price action has definitely surprised many investors. With the start of the Autumn season the markets are highly liquid and volatile again, and the strategic EURUSD major has just made another set of fresh lows.
NOW TO OUR PREFERRED ANALYSIS: THE TECHNICAL VIEW. The charting you see above is what we at Gepard Investments, Inc. use for planning our daily trades. [Click on the chart to see bigger picture]. In the chart, I have purposefully erased all the important data revealing how the system works and what it takes to trade it, to just present its general idea and, most importantly, to prove that it works well in all market situations, today’s one including.
We use mid-term technical studies to MAKE MONEY on the moves like you’ve seen today. To trade with the current trend, we apply the ALEXANDER Market Personality (used for trending marekts), and use THE CONFIRMATOR = my mid-term Trading System to capitalize on multiple price bounces during the pair’s fall…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Come back again in a few days for another fresh insight…
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis, FOREX Trading Systems | 2 Comments »
Euro Sabotaged By Two Jean-Claudes!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 4, 2008
The ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet’s lack of commitment towards future monetary policy caused the single European currency to lose 200 b.p. against its major counterpart, the US dollar. During the press conference, given 45 minutes after the ECB announced that it leaves the central bank’s interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, Mr. Eurobanker’s “no bias” comments left investors wondering about the future fate of the Euro Zone economics as well as the next ECB decision.
Moreover, at about the same time, another Jean-Claude (chairman of the Euro Zone finance ministers Jean-Claude Juncker) announced that the Euro Zone economic growth will slow to between 1.0-1.3 percent this year from 2.6 percent in 2007.
Juncker also revealed that in the first half of 2009 the economy could slow down even more. The addition that there is a chance of a pickup in growth in the second half of next year somewhat failed to sound optimistic, as it seems.
Today, both Jean-Claudes seemed to willingly undermine their own currency. However, the price action they caused in the currency markets was a blessing for all active traders, my trading team including - generating another straight set of profits…
Topics: News From Wall Street | 4 Comments »
Is This the Recovery of the US Economy?
By Marek W. Stupka | August 30, 2008
The American dollar recovered from its temporary losses after a government report showed that the U.S. economy expanded faster than expected. The Commerce Department in Washington announced that in the second quarter of 2008 the American GDP increased at the annual pace of 3.3 percentage points which truly is a surprisingly positive news when compared with the original estimate of 1.9 percent.
The U.S. economy has been stimulated by two major macroeconomy injections: 1. Better exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against its major trading partners and 2. Surge in continental exports (in fact, over the last 30 years this contributed the most to American growth). As a result, the Q2 2008 U.S. trade deficit shrank to $376.6 billion and added 3.1 percentage points to the GDP growth, which is the highest number since 1980.
Yet, boldly claiming that the U.S. economy is on the rise again would be preliminary, if not unwise. There are other important elements of a country’s economic health. Take this figure, for example: the total number of unemployed active people in the USA stands now at more than 3.4 million - the highest number since November 2003. Or take the impact of crude oil prices: as they edge higher concerns over the U.S. financial system increase, with talk of substantial job losses at Lehman Brothers. Moreover, a story in The Wall Street Journal suggested that Jefferson County, Alabama, is facing what could be the largest ever municipal bankruptcy. In addition, the global economic slowdown outside the United States is also likely to weigh on the American growth in the weeks and months to come…
Topics: News From Wall Street | 4 Comments »
As Predicted on August 17, Euro Consolidated!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 21, 2008
As per the simple analysis in my recent technical post, the major EURUSD curency pair bounced off the bottom of the green ascending channel drawn on the profoundly long-term 1w chart. Note that the prediction was right. Again! Check out the pair’s last movement in the chart below…
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture] Have a closer look at the 1w EURUSD chart. The price has wonderfully obeyed the important Support trend line, and the pair has consolidated, making a reversal move.
There are at least 2 WAYS TO MAKE MONEY on a movement like the one you see above. One is to open a profoundly long-term position in line with the S/R analysis (of course, it has to be backed by more sophisticated technical tools taught in my training course). The other one is to use mid-term technical studies to trade with the current trend, and use THE CONFIRMATOR = my mid-term Trading System to capitalize on multiple price bounces during the pair’s fall…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 2 Comments »
This Is How We Backtest
By Marek W. Stupka | August 17, 2008
A student of mine did a wonderful job on backtesting one of my trading systems, The Confirmator. I took the liberty to present here his final results applied to GBPUSD. Observe the spreadsheet below…
The backtesting idea is not just about the pip gains and win to loss ratio! This testing has been applied on a system that I teach. This diligent trainee wrote down the rules, he followed those rules, and tracked his results.
May his approach be a great example for all of the traders out there! See, many traders I train never take the effort to backtest one single trade. This guy is on his path to become a very successful trader…
Note that in the table above, it is trading with the most conservative SL/PL that brings the best results with win percentage between 70-80%! On the contrary, aggressive trading (which I never recommend) lingers around the so much feared 50% win percentage. The point is clear. Don’t be aggressive. Stay conservative, at all times.
Topics: FOREX Trading Systems | 2 Comments »
EURUSD - How Far South Can It Go?
By Marek W. Stupka | August 17, 2008
After the referential EURUSD major made the spectacular correction move predicted in my post from July 17, it has been continuing on its downward path ever since. Now I keep receiving questions on how far more do I think the pair is about to fall. Well, check out the chart below:
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture] Have a closer look at the 1w EURUSD chart. Profoundly long-term, 1 week chart scales are especially suitable for cases like this is. Can you recognize in the chart the green ascending channel (or trannel, as we like to call it at GI)? Can you see how it is just crossing the 1.4600 price level as we speak? Well, this level is very likely to become the pair’s next Support where the pair is likely to consolidate. Another, very strong Support level is at 1.4400 = the top of the kumo cloud also backed by the historical support from 12/2007 and 1/2008.
Of course, to be able to MAKE MONEY on setups like the one you see above you need a much more sophisticated technical toolset than what is being presented here. The 3 fully working, back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits are at full disposal to every participant of my 1-on-1 Forex Training. They comprise exact rules on when, what, how much, and for how long, you are supposed to trade…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems mentioned above, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 2 Comments »
As Predicted on July 17, Euro Felt Tumbling Down!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 7, 2008
As per the simple analysis in my recent technical post, the major currency pair felt to the bottom of the red channel submerging to the bigger (green) channel on the 1d chart. Note that the prediction was right. Again! Check out the pair’s last movement in the chart below…
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture] Have a closer look at the 1d EURUSD chart. The price has wonderfully obeyed both technical Support and Resistance lines, and has tumbled ALL THE WAY DOWN to the red channel’s very bottom.
There are at least 2 WAYS TO MAKE MONEY on a movement like the one you see above. One is to open a profoundly long-term position in line with the S/R analysis (of course, it has to be backed by more sophisticated technical tools taught in my training course). The other one is to use mid-term technical studies to trade with the current trend, and use THE CONFIRMATOR = my mid-term Trading System to capitalize on multiple price bounces during the pair’s fall…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 5 Comments »
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