EURUSD Locked In a Range
By Marek W. Stupka | March 2, 2010
Today, I would like to bring your attention to one important fact that was scientifically proven using the math behind the charts: “Financial markets spent most of the time locked in clearly defined ranges”. Let’s have a look at the 1W chart for EURUSD…
Now in the 1D chart above [ click on the chart to get a bigger picture ], we can clearly identify the actual mid-term price range (green parallel S-R trend lines in the right part of the chart/ at GI we like to call them channels). Moreover, there are other profoundly long-term channels, or trannels, the pair has been bouncing on and off, some of them drawn in the chart (red), some not …
As usual, I will not go deeper into the thorough technical analysis of the EURUSD currency pair. One thing is clear, though, and that is the pair is now - like I already wrote in my last technical blog article - perfectly set for posting excellent trading opportunities when applying the CANAAL (short-term) and the CONFIRMATOR (mid-term) Trading Systems, both proprietary to Gepard Investments, Inc.
Let me just give you a beautiful example of how to trade a range-locked instrument, as EURUSD is at the moment - in accordance with the CONFIRMATOR TS in its Sher-lock market phase:
The chart above is actually EURUSD, t.m. the same currency pair as above, only rendered over a shorter time period (1 hour). All of the red circles you can see in the chart represent due CONFIRMATOR trading opportunities, or signals, generated by the CONFIRMATOR Trading System after considering all of its rules.
Watch out, though, no range is kept forever! There will come a time for this pair to cross the range barrier, either the top or the bottom one, and then to continue moving in line with a freshly defined new trend. For the immediate trend change, or swing as some like to call it, there are other technical tools to be applied choosing out of the comprehensive portfolio of GI technical toolset. If you are my 1-on-1 FX Student, I certainly recommend to review all materials comprised in Modules 4 and 10 of your training course in order to properly identify trading opportunities when price moves within a range, and when it crosses the range from inside out …
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
Davos / Jobs / Europe Debt Worries
By Marek W. Stupka | February 9, 2010
Over the last couple of weeks, investors have seen a rather high number of sentiment-changing events of which the most important were: A. US jobs report; C. Worries over sovereign debt in Greece, Spain, and Portugal, and C. Closely watched World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
World business and political leaders gathered in the snowy Davos, Switzerland January 27 to 31 for the 2010 of the World Economic Forum. This year’s theme: “Improve the State of the World: Rethink. Redesign. Rebuild.” In contrast with the noble forum theme and the rethorics of Davos speakers, however, there seems to be no real, lasting, and positive impact of this year’s forum on the Financial Markets. In fact, the behind-the-curtain talk of the very opposite nature turned out to be market moving - Davos 2010 ended up to be banker-bashing (and particular big-bank banker-bashing), with hedge fund and private equity managers delighted to find themselves on the side of the angels for once: “Hey, we’re not bankers.” As one of the Japanese speakers put it, it seems that the western banks are now perceived as the public enemies rather than public-serving institutions.
On the macroeconomic forefront, the data has been pretty favorable: global industrial output is booming, U.S. economic growth accelerated in final months of 2009 and central banks are in no rush to tighten their monetary policy. U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell in January yet the unemployment rate fell to a five-month low of 9.7 percent (albeit the economy actually shed 20k jobs).
However, the true market-moving “story of the day” seems to be the persistent worries about fiscal problems in Greece, Spain and Portugal. Concerns over the sovereign credit (and its financing + insurance) in these European countries forced investors to stay cautious, and brought DJIA below the 10,000 level for the first time since October 2009.
ADVICE FOR MY 1-ON-1 STUDENTS: As per the latest news the fiscal situation in Europe might be helped by the European Government and the European Central Bank, expect a choppy trade in the coming weeks. The markets are already perfectly set for the SHER-LOCK Market Personality, go ahead and use it in accordance with the CONFIRMATOR Trading System rules. If you have any questions or any portion of your currently studied training materials seems to remain unclear to you, just drop me an email with questions, as usual…
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
Massachusetts Changes Things !!
By Marek W. Stupka | January 21, 2010
This week’s stunning victory by a conservative Republican Scott Brown (elected to the U.S. senate) in the genetically liberal climes of Massachusetts will very likely have a far greater long-term impact on the financial markets than what we may realize today.
Republican Scott Brown won a tough Senate race to succeed the deceased liberal Edward Kennedy, giving Republicans 41 votes in the chamber consisting of 100 members, and depriving Democrats of a “super majority” needed to pass the proposed pieces of legislation. The Republican win means Obama’s plans for healthcare (mainly passing the long-debated healthcare bill), climate change, financial regulatory reform and fighting unemployment could suffer from the new power structure in the Senate.
The stock market is set to reflect the impact of the Democrats’ Debacle in Massachusetts. The Dow is now down more than a 200 points after rising to its peak levels since the recession begun.
However, true meaning of the new Senate lineup is only about to impact the financial world in the coming weeks and months. Apart from initial enthusiasm on Wall Street, caused by the fact that the healthcare sector is likely to record higher profits after Mr. Brown’s victory, the new Senate power structure also means that all consequent Obama’s regulatory reforms will meet strong resistance coming from the opposite political camp.
This will most likely affect Obama’s plans for another targeted governmental financial injections coming on top of the $787 billion stimulus package he signed in February 2009, especially the so much discussed $155 billiion job bill, which is now, after having passed in the House of Representatives, expected to leave the Senate in a new, “republicanized” version.
As many of us following the market fundamentals are very well aware of, the still lingering fears among global investors of another market meltdown were being downplayed till now by pointing to the fact that whenever the US government smells the markets are about to deteriorate again, Obama simply provides for a new bailout money, and the danger just disappears… Well, after Brown’s victory, things are not as pink-’n-bright for Wall Street as they seemed just days ago! Get ready for an inevitable market correction. TO ALL MY STUDENTS: In the FOREX market, get ready to use the ALEXANDER Trading System! We will be able to make juicy profits on the new technical trend that is just developing !! (I’ll publish another post with the technical analysis of the majors anytime soon).
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
EURUSD and DJIA Decoupled Significantly !!
By Marek W. Stupka | January 9, 2010
Today I want to start with citation of my August’09 forecast (which I confirmed in my September technical post): “EURUSD rising as far as to the important psychological resistance of 1.5000 after crossing the all-year resistance 1.4337 is my preferred outlook for this instrument…”
Now in the 1D chart above [ click on the chart to get a bigger picture ], one can see EURUSD price development with start in April 2009 and end today, the 9th of January 2010. Note that the most frequently traded FOREX pair traded just as I have prophesied already back in August 2009, t.m. in a long-term ascending channel (red), from October onwards capped by long-term ascending trend line (brown). Also note that it wasn’t until December 2009 till the pair: A. met the predicted 1.5000 psychological Resistance, B. broke below the bottom of the ascending channel, C. descended to the Ichimoku Kumo Cloud and below (more about Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, channel and trendline breakouts in the 1-on-1 Training Course), and started to post a reversing price pattern since that time…
In reference to my very last article posted on this blog, I do not want to go deeper into why I predict the EURUSD to mostly trade sideways in a broad range of 1.3000 and 1.5000 in 2010, and thus generate excellent trading opportunities for the CANAAL (short-term) and the CONFIRMATOR (mid-term) Trading Systems, both proprietary to Gepard Investments, Inc. What I want to focus on, however, is the rather substantial correlation decoupling between the benchmark Foreign Exchange instrument and the benchmark equity index instrument…
Note that the chart you see above [ again, feel free to click on the picture to get a bigger chart ] is rendered over the very same time period as the EURUSD chart in the beginning of my today’s post. This chart, however, is for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (if you tried to plot charts for both the S&P100 and S&P500, you end with pretty much the same price curve).
One interesting thing to recognize when comparing both charts is that, starting from December 2009, EURUSD has been significantly decoupling from the DJIA and the S&P. The correlation between the two, based mostly on the investor pattern generally known as “Flight to Safety” or “Flight to Quality” and representing pouring money into the greenback’s safe haven whenever investors smell a risk-aversive behavior in equities, has now been considerably weakened. One good reason for this is that neither USA nor Europe - or China (and China in particular, since it is now the investing party in a great sweet portion of the US national debt, while -unluckily for Uncle Sam- it now perceives America as its most treasured investment) - would want a weak-greenback scenario again. Weak dollar, implied predominantly by the irresponsible actions of the US Government and the FED in-between 2004 and 2008, has been one of the primary reasons why we have experienced the 2008-2009 Great Recession in the first place …
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
Happy New Year 2010, Traderland !!
By Marek W. Stupka | January 3, 2010
Another year’s over! When we turn back to analyze it, there’s a simple question to be answered: “How was 2009, really?” By the global trading community, 2009 is perceived as one of the worst years ever. Hey, but not by smart investors able to profit on trading even when conditions suddenly change!! .. we at GI boast to belong to ones ..
Perfectly in accord with that widely spread habit of returning during the NYE holiday to the old year performance in order to summarize and make conclusions, I attempted to make the same effort and went through all my 2009 blog posts, mostly the technical ones (please note that on this blog, I only publish simplified, long-term market analysis and make predictions as far as my most favored future development of the selected currency majors, EURUSD in particular. In no way, however, these should be mistakenly perceived as being the sophisticated, comprehensive technical research pieces we produce at Gepard Investments, Inc. - these are only available to my students after they apply for my 1-on-1 FOREX Training Program).
I encourage you to go through my last year’s posts by visiting the Archives of this page. If you read carefully, and compare the actual predictions with the market reality, you will find out the same thing I did.
In fact, even for me, this was an encouraging fact to discover:
In 2009, none of my long-term technical market prophecies on this blog failed to come true!! In fact, those investors that took my advice to heart in the past year were able to make hundreds of pips and thus generate profit of hundreds to hundreds of thousands dollars, depending on how much money they trade with. SO HERE GOES MY LATE CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR’S WISH > Cheers to smart investing in accordance with the finest trading strategies ever invented! Cheers to the Gepard Trading Style!! May the year 2010 be even more fruitful for us than 2009 !!!
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
Investing Today? Liquidity Above All!
By Marek W. Stupka | December 12, 2009
The deepest pit of the recession seems to be over now and the markets, with DJIA lingering just above 10,000 and gold falling almost 10% since the beginning of 12/09, seem to hesitate about which direction to go. What on earth should a global investor do at times like these?
Here’s a grand idea. For clues on how this investment situation is perceived by the wealthiest people of our planet let us look at the high net-worth investors and their views on their current investment strategy.
Throughout 2009, several extensive surveys have been performed among some of the wealthiest individuals on the planet on what investment strategy/strategies they are using when it comes to managing their money. The Economist Intelligence Unit was commissioned by Barclays Wealth to survey 2,000 wealthy individuals around the globe and published a paper called “New Horizon, New Behavior” in September 2009. Most recently, the Family Office Channel, an exclusive group of advisors and wealthy families surveyed 100 advisers on current investment attitudes.
The findings across all surveys were consistent - wealthy clients are returning to a much more conservative money management style. But hey, that’s not all! They also plan to stay this way for the future. In other words, they are increasingly skeptical of highly complicated products like structured notes and hedge funds and are concentrating on plain vanilla liquid investments like bonds, stocks, ETFs, commodities, and currencies. Rather than use complicated option strategies to hedge the risk of a financial meltdown, they were turning to an old favorite - cash.
This - among many of the wealthiest people of our time - has led during the recent months to investing their vast monetary resources in the currency markets, or the FOREX, since we all know that SPOT FOREX IS THE MOST LIQUID MARKET IN THE WORLD. In the beginning of this year it was the greenback many poured their money into. After the March/April market meltdown (and dollar rebound based on the “return to safety” approach), however, investors swapped to other currencies, especially Euro and the Australian dollar.
I get asked by traders worldwide what is it that I prophet for the markets to do next. Gold has already posted a strong correction, drawing other commodities, as well as some of the currency majors with it. Should this mean that we are at the very dawn of another market meltdown, or a “government bubble burst” as some chronically bearish analysts would proclaim so boldly?
Well, I know for many of the hedge fund and portfolio managers out there the idea of another meltdown seems to be incredibly appealing. The reason? Once a bubble bursts out, as it did in September 2008, it is very easy for bears to ride down with the rest and make money on the implied panic. Why? Because of one of the very essential human emotions=fear. Fear, my friends, was the reason why many bears were able to make millions on the 2008/2009 crunch with a very little risk attached. Oh, when a blood-thirsty bear gets his tasty filling once, he simply wants more as soon as his stomach gets empty again.
P.S. Note that there is no doubt in my mind that what we are witnessing right now is not another bubble burst, but just a temporary market correction, and that the global recovery is already underway. I am am definitely a bottom-up investor and like to make money on the progress instead of on the fall. In any case, however, global investors should get ready for a bumpy road towards the 2010, with volatility and market risk being extremely high. For the most cautious of you out there, I recommend to stay on the sidelines, or even get away from the hustle and bustle of the city (applies in case you live in one) and visit a beach resort. For those who like to profit on high volatility, we have 3 trading systems proved to bring forth consistent profits even at times of uncertainty. On this blog page, I plan on posting (apart from a Christmas wish) another simplified tech analysis post till the end of the year. Always remember - your questions and observations are welcome at my email address marek@gepardinvestments.com. HAPPY TRADING !!
Topics: Miscellanous | 7 Comments »
Recovery vs Unemployment
By Marek W. Stupka | November 22, 2009
U.S. unemployment has not hit 10% since 1983. The highest American unemployment rate on record, 10.8%, was reached in late 1982 and lingered in the calendars till January 1983. On November 6, 2009, the U.S. unemployment posted a shocking double-digit number again : 10,2% !!
Hilary Kramer, chief investment strategist at A& G Capital Research said that: “As long as the consumer is 70% of the gross domestic product, then we can’t recover with so many unemployed and underemployed.”
But let’s face it, how real are threats of the unemployment ghosts influencing the already booming recovery? There is no doubt - unemployment is here to stay. That, of course, doesn’t mean the U.S. as well as the global economy is not recovering.
Personally, I don’t expect the employment situation to get better until at least the start of next year. Some companies may even wait until next year to begin hiring people to help their bottom line through the end of the fourth quarter. Moreover, unemployment is a lagging indicator. It is absolutely normal and even typical for unemployment to continue to inch up for several months after the DJIA and the S&P 500 trough. In other words, history shows that the unemployment rate only starts to fall 6 to 7 months after the Dow Jones Industrial Average crosses from below an important psychological level - in our case it is the 10,000 mark. It was reached in the early November 2009, so don’t expect the NFP showing positive numbers until June-July 2010.
OK, what should a savvy investor do these days? What is the best fundamental data to follow? Well, let’s be honest, the absolute worst thing an investor can do is try to time the market according to unemployment numbers! If you do this, you will miss the train and settle your long-term trades too late..
And so, investors shouldn’t put too much weight on the unemployment numbers. These numbers won’t improve soon, as employers will first try to replace their lost workforce with technology and then hire temporary workers before hiring employees full-time.
Right now, the Nr.1 fundamental story of the Fall 2009 is the CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. Yes, we all know that the GDP figures are on the rise again. That, my friend, is already history. Now, when it comes to fundamentals, the absolute superior thing you should focus on is confidence of the U.S. buyers. I strongly advise to watch the indicators like CB Consumer Confidence and Personal Spending to determine how soon the markets will recover.
P.S. Note that there is no doubt in my mind about the global recovery being already underway. The only thing we need to find out in the days to come is how fast the recovery process is going to blossom. This, my fellow traders, is the beginning of many investment opportunities, this is the dawn of big money being made at the FOREX front, too…
Topics: Miscellanous, News From Wall Street | 3 Comments »
RECOVERY - Where is the Real Money ??
By Marek W. Stupka | October 26, 2009
A year after the 2008 market freefall, many of those investors that for so long have been standing on the sidelines are now beginning to think about investing big in order to profit from trading again. So, where’s the real money to be made during this sluggish recovery?
Opinions of experts and professional forecasters on the future course of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 100 and 500, as well as the EURUSD (benchmark FX currency pair) vary. Some analysts and fund managers predict the financial markets to rise based on renewed “risk appetite” - the same pattern of behavior we observed in the markets before the 2008 crisis. Others prophecy the markets will decline, pointing to the fact that unemployment will need another months, if not years, to get back to the positive territory again, and the governmental financial injections will fail to have impact on the economy once the money stops coming in.
Since the time I launched this blog, I have been receiving plenty of inquiries on where the markets are going to move next, what future prediction I can draw for the EURUSD and other majors, what is my personal view on when the crisis will end, etc.
But the single most important question I have been asked was :
SHOW ME HOW I CAN MAKE MONEY ON TRADING THE MARKETS, BE IT DURING THE RECESSION OR THE RECOVERY. SHOW ME HOW I CAN GET RICH BY TRADING !!
Well, the answer is quite simple - in order to trade the markets with profit month in and month out, regardless of their fundamental condition, you must have a quality trading education. That’s where the REAL MONEY abides - no inexperienced individual has ever been able to get rich on trading without getting experienced first…
For the reason of equipping every investor hungry for profit with a cutting-edge trading education, teaching him/her the principles that helped me (and so many of my students from Hong-Kong to New York) to trade the markets with consistent profits, in late 2006 I launched the FOREX 1-on-1 Training, very likely the best online personal program on trading on the planet. The training program turned out to be overwhelmingly helpful for great majority of my trainees, since less than 2% of the 1-on-1 students have ever asked for a refund. A third-party proof of how satisfied are the people I work with can be found at r.ecommended.com.
If you would like to join the growing community of GEPARD traders and receive the best FOREX trading education available on the internet, I invite you to visit our GI website and search it for more information on how the course works and how you can apply. See you aboard the course ship, then. And happy trading!!
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
Euro Skyrocketing As Foretold On 8/22/2009 !!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 22, 2009
As forecasted on July 22, the single European currency paired with its biggest rival, the US dollar, remained locked in an evident rising channel and made its way north after a series of range-bound price moves…
Note that in the chart above [ click on the chart to get a bigger picture ], there are two submerging Support and Resistance channels - the red channel and the blue channel. As per my market prophecy from late August, the referential currency pair traded in the broader range (red), and after crossing above the important all-year resistance 1.4337, confirmed its bullish momentum, and climbed high bouncing on and off borders of the narrower range (blue) …
Note also that on 8/22 I wrote that EURUSD rising as far as to the important psychological resistance of 1.5000 after crossing the all-year resistance 1.4337 is my preferred outlook for this instrument. And, as many times in the past, my forecast was right. Those of the readers that took my advice to heart are now a few hundreds - thousands, ten thousands - dollars richer, depending on how much they’ve invested…
However, please be advised that the S/R channel recognition presented to you above is just a simple, basic technique mostly used to identify price ranges of a currency pair, or any other traded instrument for that matter. To really be able to trade the markets and capitalize on your trading activities with profit, you should apply one of the trading strategies (combination of specific trading techniques) and/or trading systems (explicitly defined navigational guides on when, what, how much, and for how long to trade) taught in my 1-on-1 FOREX Training Course.
If you haven’t become member of the GEPARD trading family, you are invited to apply for the course at www.gepardinvestments.com. If you are my student, please refer to the corresponding lessons and updates to find out how to trade the referential, as well as the other major, currency pairs…
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
A Year After the Lehman Collapse
By Marek W. Stupka | September 7, 2009
On September 15, 2008, the world witnessed collapse of one of the world’s oldest and most respected investment banks, the Lehman Brothers. It led to a global financial meltdown that has seriously damaged the global economy.
Since September 2008, traders have witnessed how the most severe financial crisis in 60 years plundered the wealth and the glamor of the planet’s richest nations. Stock markets were down 40%, major banks all over the globe were surviving only on government support, and the world had entered a sharp decline phase of the global macro cycle, with rising unemployment and a collapse of house prices.
However, with all this bad news on the table, it is equally necessary to stress that every recession - including the one we are witnessing today - has to come to an end. That’s simply the way macro-economy cycles work. Without the decline, there would be no growth. In other words, no market appreciation can go on forever, there always must be a downphase and bottom happening somewhere, sometime…
Well, this cycle’s “somewhere and sometime” has certainly been planet Earth, September 2008 - March 2009.
As we enter Autumn 2009, there are clear signs evident in all developed countries (mostly , however, on the Old Continent) that he worst of the financial crisis seems to have passed. The first glimmers of economic recovery are visible in Germany and France. The European Central Bank has – in the eyes of many finance officials – emerged from its first big institutional stress test with its credibility enhanced. And there is a growing conviction that European policymakers, for so long divided about the virtues and vices of the free market and state intervention, are converging on a new balanced consensus…
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
Bernanke Sees Recession Ending !!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 22, 2009
FED chief Ben Bernanke told a gathering of economists and central bankers at a speech in Jackson Hole on Friday that the world is emerging from recession and showing better prospects for growth the rest of the year.
Bernanke, whose term as FED Chairman is about to end soon, with clear purpose to advertise own re-election added to the market-boosting statement a comprehensive monologue defending FED’s policies before and during the world’s worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and did not fall short of emphasizing that a sweet great portion of how we got out of the pit can be attributed to him and him alone…
I certainly agree that Mr. Bernanke played his role as the FED’s boss in the battle against recession, mostly in terms of early accepting the tightening monetary policy. However, we should not forget that it was the same Bernanke and the same FED that failed to deploy supervising mechanisms over the financial and the housing markets that caused this recession to blossom in the first place…
In any case, all major instruments of the Financial Market jumped Friday as Bernanke’s speech and word that more homes were selling sent traders into the weekend optimistic about an economy recovery. Equity indexes posted their biggest gains early in the session after the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales soared 7.2% last month. EURUSD regained its bullish momentum short after, too.
On the fundamental front, I recommend traders focus on the consumer confidence, a very important indicator closely watched by the markets. It is a generally known fact that this recession is only to be ended by growing purchasing capability of an average consumer. The consumer confidence reading is due next Tuesday, right after the NY opening bell. Economists expect a reading of 48 for August, up from July’s 46.6. However, any surprise on the downside can spoil what Mr. Bernanke’s said so purposefully in his extensively cheerful speech…
Topics: News From Wall Street | 3 Comments »
What Do TRADERS Want? (5)
By Marek W. Stupka | August 12, 2009
[ This original article contains inspiring facts hotter these days more then ever before. So I decided to re-publish it. ] People think of different things when they first get into trading - from buying super fast cars, through launching gigantic corporations, to helping others…
I’ve heard a whole range of prospects traders intend to do with the money they are to make on trading (usually, however, it is the money they still don’t have) – from buying own islands, through purchasing holiday villas, to helping defeat poverty in the Third World.
Surely, everything is possible! It is absolutely normal to have dreams like these! The market we’re in has unlimited potential. Plus, there are people in this market who really DO live their dreams.
However, it is equally necessary to realize that, in order to reach your goals, you will have to work, and work hard. There is no easy money to be made on FOREX, in the long-term. Sure, you can win random profit once or twice (even without knowing what you’re doing), but so you can in any casino in Monte Carlo, or Las Vegas.
If you want to trade with consistent profits, it will take commitment. Commitment to learn as much as you can, to act professionally, to never stop working on improving your trading strategies, and to not get discouraged by occasional failures. Commitment to dig deep. To activate your every braincell in order to achieve the promise land: Trade with consistent profits.
But don’t get discouraged. Many traders have been able to reach the promise land. Now, will you be the next one of them..? The answer is up to you right now.
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
Why Do Traders Lose? (3)
By Marek W. Stupka | August 11, 2009
I decided to re-publish my original blog article named “Why Do Traders Lose?” since information contained in this short text can save novice traders out there from further trading losses and profound disappointment.
ACCORDING TO AN INDEPENDENT STATISTICS, AS MANY AS 89% OF ALL TRADERS END UP LOSING THEIR MONEY INVESTED IN TRADING !!! READ ON. I’LL EXPLAIN WHY…
Most of the traders I know - including myself - went into trading because they wanted more freedom. It is a great prospect to be able to make unlimited amounts of money anywhere on the planet with just a laptop and an internet connection. Or, isn’t it?
Well, without almost a single exception, this cool-n-easy way of making fast cash on trading is soon replaced by feelings of profound frustration, anger, and even bitterness.
Trading is no amateur’s game. After a couple of weeks of trading, a trading newbie is usually ready to admit he or she needs to really learn how to trade before going live again, or, worse, to quit this whole “gambling nonsense” for good.
First thing I say when approached by such a frustrated trading newcomer is: Welcome to the trading world! This very same experience is, in fact, common to almost every trader that ever existed (you guessed it, including myself again…). Just study the history of the great investors, from the trading legends like Jesse Livermore, Bernard Baruch, and Edward Francis Hutton, to investment superstars like George Soros and Warren Buffet. All of them, at some point of their career (usually near to its start), managed to lose money.
The initial loss is some sort of a “baptism” for every trader. That is why, when mentoring a new student, I always guide him/her to start trading on a demo account. And to load the first live account with just a very small amount of money (preferably few hundred dollars). It is absolutely vital to make the first losing experience as painless as possible.
Only after a trader goes through what I described above, he or she is ready to begin with the real trading education. The trading pro realizes the true scope of risks attached to trading, and thus devotes him- or herself to digging deep into the Technical Analysis, and to learn how to trade conservatively in order to make rather smaller amounts of profit, but make them consistently and over the long haul. Those traders who do NOT pass this point, usually quit trading. They are responsible for the shockingly high 89% of trading losers.
Let us now talk a bit about the reasons WHY traders really lose money. Since I was able to talk to many traders from different corners of this wonderful planet, I can honestly say that majority of them show the same reasons to the trading failure.
THE MOST FREQUENT REASONS ARE:
1. No quality trading education and know-how;
2. Poor, or nonexisting, trading plan;
3. Lack of trading discipline;
4. Underestimating the importance of money management;
5. Trading on inner “impulses” or “inspirations”;
6. Trading with the money that one cannot afford to lose;
7. Knowing a little, or nothing, about the psychology of trading.
I personally went through all of the stages of the trading education. In fact, I designed my FOREX Training to actually help ME first to trade better. Yes, I trade my own systems. Yes, I obey my trade signals. And I’m successful. Now you can join me - and be too…
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
Safe Haven No Longer Necessary ??
By Marek W. Stupka | August 10, 2009
After the Friday’s USD advance following the release of stronger-than-expected US unemployment data, some investors are beginning to believe that the greenback’s status as safe haven is beginning to dissolve…
Some analysts have had their say that due to encouraging actions from governments not to let another major institution to fall, the need for the US dollar to play the safe haven role has substantially diminished. They are arguing that buying of dollars is returning to economic issues rather than fear.
As for my view, I believe that more rational reasons to a currency exchange rate growth start to take over along with rising expectations that the central bank (respective to the country currency of which this applies to) might exit from its low interest rate policy sooner than expected. Among these reasons definitely are the yield differentials (responsible for the so-called “carry trades”), and the general fundamental strength based on macro indicators.
This exactly is being the case now with the US dollar, and the FED. As we are beginning to see global investors expecting the Federal Reserve to slowly abandon its tightening policy, chances are getting higher for the negative correlation between improving risk sentiment and a weaker dollar to break down. Note, however, that this is the case only during the expanding phase of the macroeconomy cycle (which, I believe, we are just entering). As soon as any consequent major event occurs that causes the markets to question its potential for growth, investors will always have a need to return to the safe haven principle and correlation.”
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
Markets End Month With Flying Colors !!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 1, 2009
The U.S. economy shrank at a slower than expected pace in QII, a sign that the worst recession since the Great Depression is slowly bottoming out. Gross domestic product contracted at a less-than-projected 1% annual rate after shrinking 6.4% in QI. Markets ended the month with solid gains..
Even though this reading was made for the US, it is not just America that is affected. The pace of the global economy contraction finally slowed. Company profits from IBM to Samsung signal the slump is losing steam as governments efforts to revive lending and stimulus packages (such as President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan) gain traction.
At the same time, however, the US GDP report showed that consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, shrank more than twice (down to -1.5% against -0.5% expected) versus the forecast. In other words, US and world corporations might finally be making more money than they were in the end of 2008, but it is not because they would produce more - it is because they save more!! Saving, at this point of the global economy cycle, many times equals job cutting. Thus, the real spending power of an American consumer (still perceived as the universal pillar and measure of growth) remains locked in the recession agony from past months, and it will take 3-6 months for it to recover. As for my personal prophecy, unemployment will step aboard the recovery train as the very least in line, resulting in a 6-9 months period for the Non-farm Payrolls to show distinctly positive numbers again.
World Markets Poised for an Upturn…
In any case, long-term technical picture of the world’s major financial markets like stocks and commodities is now strongly favoring bulls over bears. Take a look at 1W charts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and NYMEX October Crude Oil Contract (CLV9) below. Both are posting evident bullish signals stemming from the long-term Convergence Scenario as well as from the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo analysis.
What only few traders realize is the fact that the major stock, commodity, and currency markets are correlated. Of course, there are technical differences to trading stock or commodity instruments of the Financial Markets (with commodity futures, for instance, you would have to pay margin and brokerage fees, only trade in the time window your chosen commodity exchange is open, follow a different set of fundamentals, etc.) but the most important thing it takes to trade these markets is..? You guessed it right! It is the technical analysis and the sophisticated trading strategies and systems we use when trading FX. In other words, you can trade stock indexes and commodity futures like DJIA and crude oil contracts in the same way as you trade FOREX. What’s even more interesting is that you can use past price action of one instrument to predict the future development of another. For more info please refer to the 1-on-1 FOREX Training materials…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 3 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. Feel free to send me an email before you apply!
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
Euro Bullish But Nearing All-Year Resistance !!
By Marek W. Stupka | July 22, 2009
With rising equities and renewed risk appetite there’s clear evidence for the EURUSD to head north. In any case, however, note that the pair is now nearing its important all-year Resistance which implies cautiousness when it comes to being overly euro optimistic…
Investors’ risk appetite is on the rise again, as mentioned in my last blog post. Note that, technically speaking, the referential FOREX pair is now evidently positioned in the long-term rising channel (red) and has just broken its mid-term Resistance cap (green). On the Fibonacci front, the pair has recently crossed above the 76.40% of the preceding big downmove which translates to 1.4183 in the EURUSD price. In addition, the latest MACDH Convergence Scenario only confirms this mid-term bullish trend…
Note also, however, that the most eyed FOREX pair is getting near the all-year Resistance of 1.4337. This is a very important psychological level and will very likely result in a renewed fighting between bulls and bears in the days and weeks to follow.
As for my preferred outlook, watch out for EURUSD to cross substantially above the all-year Resistance. Once this happens, the pair is very well positioned to “ALEXANDER skyrocket” all the way to 1.4500, or even to 1.4700 (major price peak from December 2008). Once, however, the pair gets range-bound under the umbrella of 1.4337, apply the SHER-LOCK trading type.
Remember to have all of your trades confirmed in line with the rules.
At Gepard Investments, Inc., we have special trading strategies (or better yet, we like to call them Trading Systems) for every market phase. When trading gets range-bound, we apply the second of the four types of the so called CONFIRMATOR Trading System named THE SHERLOCK Market Personality. Once a substantial breakout occurs on any of the long-term time scales, we deploy the so-called ALEXANDER Market Personality of this system. We also have other 2 back-tested trading systems at our disposal, covering trading on longer and shorter time scales. In addition, there is quite a number of the most recommended and conservative trading strategies used by professional trading houses and hedge funds. The point of the 1-on-1 Training is to guide a trader to develop his own trading plan following or slightly modifying one of the proven trading methods, respecting his or her own personality and trading style.
Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining the community of GEPARD traders and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 2 Comments »
Corporate Harvest Drives the Recovery !!
By Marek W. Stupka | July 16, 2009
Across the boards of the major financial instruments we see clear evidence of stabilization and bottoming out. The latest recovery driver? QII financial harvest of the biggest American corporations and banks..
Positive surprises on the earnings front are already boosting markets. Here are some examples: Intel reported results that surpassed expectations and also gave a forecast for current-quarter revenue that beat analysts’ estimates. Its stock surged 7.4 percent to $18.08 in extended trade. Jump in profit from Goldman Sachs forced the major stock indexes to climb already earlier more than 2 percent in anticipation of strong bank results. CSX Corp’s and Johnson & Johnson results also surpassed expectations.
JPMorgan reported record revenues in the second quarter as well as soaring investment banking fees drove profits in spite of swelling loan losses. The bank’s earnings beat analysts’ most bullish expectations, jumping 36 per cent and producing net income of $2.7bn, or 28 cents a share. Revenues climbed by 41 per cent in the quarter to a record $27.7bn.
Positive news like the above serve as catalysts of market sentiment and we are beginning to see investors’ risk appetite to slowly unleash again. Therefore, in the light of the above, we at Gepard Investments, Inc. prefer trading along with the euro bulls at the moment. This renewed euro-strength sentiment is also backed by the 1d and 4h EURUSD analysis which I am about to publish in my next technical post.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
EURUSD Triangle Range. Sure. Forecasted.
By Marek W. Stupka | July 1, 2009
In my last blog post I wrote: “Do you see the thick green lines in the chart? Right now, these are the Support and Resistance lines in-between which the pair is likely to trade in the following days.”. OK, guess what happened since I published my last simplified EURUSD analysis..?
The pair has been range-bound in between the thick green triangle for several days and even weeks now, and is gathering momentum for a breakout. For those of you who have not been using any of my strategies for range trading and are awaiting the breakout: Watch out for it in the days to come! When this happens, the movement might be fast and the volatility high. Ideal train to step aboard and make solid amount of cash in line with the rules. For determining the right time and direction of the breakout, please follow the rules of any of the proven intraday trading strategies, e.g. the one that is exploited in The CONFIRMATOR TS….
Note also that the pair has been moving not only in the range defined by the thick green trend lines forming a triangle but lately also in-between the 61.8% and 76.4% fibbles capping the preceding substantial price move - just in line with the rules for Fibonacci retracements.
Pay heed to these two S/R levels when positioning yourself for your next trade. Once one of these lines is successfully crossed above or below, the trading opportunity will be there. Of course, always confirm such an opportunity via a set of more sophisticated technical tools and strategies, in accord with the training materials.
At Gepard Investments, Inc., we have special trading strategies (or better yet, we like to call them Trading Systems) for every market phase. When trading gets range-bound, we apply the second of the four types of the so called CONFIRMATOR Trading System named THE SHERLOCK Market Personality. Once a substantial breakout occurs on any of the long-term time scales, we deploy the so-called ALEXANDER Market Personality of this system. We also have other 2 back-tested trading systems at our disposal, covering trading on longer and shorter time scales. In addition, there is quite a number of the most recommended and conservative trading strategies used by professional trading houses and hedge funds. The point of the 1-on-1 Training is to guide a trader to develop his own trading plan following or slightly modifying one of the proven trading methods, respecting his or her own personality and trading style.
Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining the community of GEPARD traders and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 2 Comments »
Corrective Move, Just In Line With My Analysis !!
By Marek W. Stupka | June 9, 2009
In my last blog post I wrote that: “The referential currency pair has just hit its long-term Resistance and will need more momentum to really break above it in a substantial way.” and that “The technical setup suggests a shaky movement on the north side of the indicator equilibrium in the days and weeks to come”. OK, guess what happened in the meantime..?
Elsewhere in the last post I also mentioned that: “Greenback felt to levels above the EURUSD psychological Resistance 1.4000. Note, however, that many trade position stops are placed at this rather significant price level of the referential EURUSD currency pair. Therefore, do not expect the market to substantially cross above this line easily. Candles and bars might get a little shaky…
Note that my conservative approach to further trading the pair bullish proved to be just right. In the 1D EURUSD chart above [click on the picture to get a bigger chart] we see that the most traded financial instrument in the world truly posted a corrective move.
Do you see the thick green lines in the chart above? Right now, these are the Support and Resistance lines in-between which the pair is likely to trade in the following days.
At Gepard Investments, Inc., we have a special trading strategy (or better yet, we like to call it a Trading System) for these kinds of market phases when the trading gets range-bound. It is the second of the four types of the so called CONFIRMATOR Trading System named THE SHERLOCK Market Personality. There are strict rules to the system and the type; they have been duly back-tested via up to 1000 demo trades, and they proved to work bearing consistent profits across all of the FOREX majors as well as most crosses. All my 1-on-1 students are given details of the system for free (as just one part of their training materials).
Now, in order to master and deploy a working, back-tested GEPARD trading system (either short-, or mid-, or long-term) you need the access codes to enter the community of GEPARD traders. Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining our community and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 4 Comments »
As Foretold, Dollar Continues to Shrink !!
By Marek W. Stupka | May 30, 2009
In a couple of my recent blog posts I have discussed the EUR-bullish outlook for the market (old posts can be found in the Archives of this blog). Those who took my advice to heart are now several hundred pips richer. Good old buck just did it again - shrink, I mean...
Another set of record-breaking price levels for the Euro paired against its major rival, the US dollar. The pair has just reached and significantly crossed the psychological resistance 1.4000. Interested in the fundamentals that triggered the aggressive dollar selling? Want to know what the catalyst was?
US GDP was revised up to -5.7% in Q1 from -6.1%, leaving the past two quarters as the worst in 50 years. The revisions reflect a change in gross private investment to -49.3% from -51.8%, a shift in exports to -28.7% from -30.0%, and a rise in the inventory change to -$91.4B from -$103.7B. Meanwhile, personal consumption was revised down to 1.5% from 2.2% due to a contraction in demand for nondurable goods and slower services growth.
These catalysts forced the greenback to fall to levels above the psychological Resistance 1.4000. Note, however, that many trade position stops are placed at this rather significant price level of the referential EURUSD currency pair. Therefore, do not expect the market to substantially cross above this line easily. Candles and bars might get a little shaky this week..
The bullish technical scenario in the 1W chart proved to work as smoothly as it was foretold in my earlier posts. In the 1W chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ] we can see that my EUR-bullish forecast was successful - AGAIN !! - and the price has just reached the 76,4% fibble at 1.4180.
Note, however, that at this point the long-term indicators for this pair are heavily overbought. This simple technical setup suggests a shaky movement on the north side of the indicator equilibrium in the days and weeks to come. The outlook is only powered by the fact that in this case the technical perspective agrees with the fundamental picture above.
In other words - I’d be a little more careful trading the pair long this time - the referential currency pair has just hit its long-term Resistance and will need more momentum to really break above it in a substantial way…
And, as usual, be advised that what is being presented to you here is a very simplified technical analysis, and you are under no circumstances advised to understand it as a trade signal or recommendation. To actually deploy a trade, you should have it backed by a full-scope technical examination, that we at Gepard Investments, Inc. like to call the Trading System, following a clearly defined Trading Plan.
Now, in order to master and deploy a working, back-tested GEPARD trading system (either short-, or mid-, or long-term) you need the access codes to enter the community of GEPARD traders. Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining our community and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis, News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
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