Archive for November, 2007
Yen Finally Reverses !!
By Marek W. Stupka | November 28, 2007
Wednesday morning brought mid- to long-term reversal in the Japanese Yen. Currently the strongest of the majors has finally made a reversal …
[ Click on the chart to see bigger picture ] Observe the 4h chart for GBPJPY above. The green Triangle has already been broken few days ago. Consequently, te pair posted a reversed Head & Shoulders formation, and began to climb up north.
NOTE TO MY 1-ON-1 STUDENTS: after the yestererday’s signal for the USDJPY, GBPJPY is the pair to watch. Can you see the small blue up and down arrows in the chart? Those are the points of my last long trade opening and closing. The trade was based on 1h CONFIRMATOR analysis. However, the current 4h setup above actually suggests performing further analysis of this carry pair via the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo TS.
GBPJPY now broke out of the Kumo cloud, and is nearing the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the previous downmove. Once the line is crossed, I definitely recommend applying the 4h Ichimoku. All my students are encouraged to discuss this trading possibility with me…
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
What Do TRADERS Want? (2)
By Marek W. Stupka | November 28, 2007
It seems that the end product of trading activities is what attracts traders the most. I received a number of replies to the equally titled post below…
Having depicted what you can buy for the trading profits seem to motivate people to actually devote themselves to give the prospect a serious thought. Yes, it is true. We are in the world’s largest market! And ours is the legitimate right to plan on buying these things !!
However, as I already mentioned, it is necessary to realise that trading is NOT AN EASY JOB (although it might look like one at the first glance)! In fact, it means working hard, dedicating yourself to trading, and requires patience and skill. If you want to be successful at FOREX in the long term, and even support yourself and your family on your trading proceeds, get ready to sweat and to drill…
But the benefits are amazing. Once you master the trading with consistent profits, you can literally live and make your money anywhere on the planet you want. You can make your secret dreams come true. Obviously, it will take time to get to this level of expertise (usually it takes 3-6 months). But it is posible. Read my free ebooks to know more…
Topics: Lifestyle Of A Trader | No Comments »
Reaching Beyond FOREX!
By Marek W. Stupka | November 26, 2007
Recently, I’ve got the possibility to talk to guys from Saxo Bank, a well-known Danish broker, about trading FOREX and beyond. Read on to know more…
Many traders that master the way of consistently profiting from trading one instrument of the Financial Markets reach out to widen the scope of their trading of one (or two) complementary instruments. The technical know-how is the same EVERYWHERE !!!
[ Click on the chart to see bigger picture ] The graph above is actually 4h chart for the ECBOT December gold future contract. Notice that the technical analysis we at GI are so intimately familiar with applies to the commodity market without a SINGLE exception.
Of course, there are differences to trading futures, when compared to traditional FOREX trading. The most obvious of them are: trading is possible only within the specific exchange open hours time window, traders buy or sell contracts for various delivery months, they have to pay transaction fees, etc. Moreover, the fundamental background of these markets is different…
But the similarities are great. If you are curiuous about how the futures markets work, drop me an email, and I’ll gladly navigate you to the right sources. Oh, one more thing, just to make it clear - FOREX continues to be in the very center of my attention due to obvious advantages. Trading futures only comes complementary …
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
FOREX “Turkey Driver”!
By Marek W. Stupka | November 22, 2007
The Turkey Holiday has already become famous in the world of FX trading for producing extra volatility. Days right after Thanksgiving drive the move…
Traders who already witnessed impact of several Thanksgiving Holidays on the FOREX markets are well aware of the fact that Friday, or better yet, Monday right after the holiday serve as powerful drivers for generating trade opportunities caused by increased volatility.
In fact, if you study the 2004-2006 charts for the EURUSD currency pair at the time of Thanksgiving, you find out that markets showed the same characterisics in all three cases: A. Historically narrow trading ranges in the days before the holiday; B. Extensive, trend-confirming breakouts right after the holiday is over.
It is only wise to presume that this same scenario is about to repeat itself in the year 2007 - with impact ranging from mid to ultra-high. The reasoning is clear. Many pro traders take a part or a whole week off on Thanksgiving, only to return to their trading desks rested, and hungry for profit. Another reason is that the awareness of the historically increased volatility during Thanksgiving among traders is already high, causing expectations for the major pairs to move much. And expectations are the very essence of FX movements…
Though the “Turkey-driven” market moves seen in the previous years show the same trend-confirming pattern, it is hard to say at this point if we should simply assume that this year’s Thanksgiving is going to shift EURUSD higher. The long term (1d, 1w) charts are heavily overbought, posting increased risk to opening a trade position in any direction right now.
But there certainly are ways of making money on the opportunity lying ahead of us. One of them is to apply short- to mid-term GI strategies, and trade the most favorable major or carry pair in line with their rules at the first dawn after the trukey feast becomes history…
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
What Do TRADERS Want?
By Marek W. Stupka | November 14, 2007
People think of different things when they first get into trading - from buying super fast cars, through launching gigacorporations, to helping others…
I’ve heard a whole range of prospects traders intend to do with the money they are to make on trading (usually, however, it is the money they still don’t have) – from buying own islands, through purchasing holiday villas, to helping defeat poverty in the Third World.
It is absolutely normal to have dreams like these. The market we’re in has unlimited potential. Plus, there are people in this market who really DO live their dreams.
However, it is equally necessary to realize that, in order to reach your goals, you will have to work, and work hard. There is no easy money to be made on FOREX, in the long-term. Sure, you can win random profit once or twice (even without knowing what you’re doing), but so you can in any casino in Monte Carlo, or Las Vegas.
If you want to trade with consistent profits, it will take commitment. Commitment to learn as much as you can, to act professionally, to never stop working on improving your trading strategies, and to not get discouraged by occasional failures. Commitment to dig deep. To activate your every braincell in order to achieve the promise land: Trade with consistent profits.
But don’t get discouraged. Many traders have been able to reach the promise land. Now, will you be the next one of them..? The answer is up to you right now.
Topics: Lifestyle Of A Trader | No Comments »
Another Carry Unwind !!
By Marek W. Stupka | November 12, 2007
Monday brought aggressive selling in GBPJPY, as Nikkei followed Friday’s weak performance in the Dow and felt more than –300 pips…
[ Click on the chart to see bigger picture ] Despite the no-work-today Veterans Holiday in the US, all of the carry pairs recorded unusual volatility levels.
The underlying reasons to these volatile moves are further problems in the sub-prime sector. (If you’re curious about what the “carry trade” means, and what exactly caused the subprime credit problems, you should visit the BLOG TOPIC SEARCH section on your left, click the FOREX Trading Analysis section, and do your search right there).
Anyway, this aggressive price action started on Friday, happened out of the blue and was very hard to predict via the technical toools. Basically, the pair did not follow any clear technical pattern, or, to be more specific, it swung bearish before we were able to analyze it with the technical tools. At the end of the day, the only pattern followed by the carry was the price action in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA).
Look at the daily chart for GBPJPY above. The pair has just crossed below the 24% Fibonacci Retracement line of the previous unwind. The volatility is high, and the movements are fast. Be very careful when trading this pair these days .
NOTE TO MY CURRENT 1-ON-1 STUDENTS: I will produce an update to this pair soon. Visit the Interactive Updates and Planners section for the newest planner….
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
Dollar Collapses Completely!
By Marek W. Stupka | November 8, 2007
Over the last couple of weeks, the US dollar sinked to levels referred to by many as “ridiculous” and “unbearable”. Let’s look at the weekly EURUSD chart…
[ Click on the chart to see bigger picture ] The EURUSD currency pair broke out of its long-term rising trannel already 8 weeks ago (look up the FOREX Trading Analysis in the BLOG TOPIC SEARCH on your left to check the historical charts and comments). At the present moment, the pair is positioned aggressively north, within a steep ascending channel.
The weekly Stochastic is heavily overbought. MACD lines post unusually high levels. However, note the MACD Histogram - not much going on there, can you see that?
In any case, the pair has to hit a significant level of resistance to actually stop the dollar fall and make a reversing correction. On this setup, it is hard to predict where the train stops. 1.4700 can become such a significant resistance. But it is also possible that the pair will break even higher in search for another resistance level.
At this point, the only piece of advice I can give you is to avoid trading (at the present moment), and to wait until the pair fully leaves the current 1.4700 level. If it moves distinctly higher, the preferred strategy will be trading on dips, or better yet, trading according to the rules of THE CONFIRMATOR Alexander personality. If it, on the contrary, moves distinctly lower, the time will be ripe for analysing the reversal based on the ICHIMOKU rules.
NOTE TO MY CURRENT 1-ON-1 STUDENTS: In the days to follow, I will produce mid- to long-term system chart planner updates on this pair and have them sent to you via email. Besides the small, or commodity, dollars, the EURUSD will be a very interesting pair to watch - and to benefit from. Get ready for a thrilling couple of weeks ….
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
Why Do Traders Lose?
By Marek W. Stupka | November 8, 2007
According to an independent statistic, as many as 89% of all traders end up losing their money invested in trading. Read on. I’ll explain WHY…
Most of the traders I know - including myself - went into trading because they wanted more freedom. It is a great prospect to be able to make unlimited amounts of money anywhere on the planet with just a laptop and an internet connection. Or, isn’t it?
Well, without almost a single exception, this cool-n-easy way of making fast cash on trading is soon replaced by feelings of profound frustration, anger, and even bitterness.
Trading is no amateur’s game. After a couple of weeks of trading, a trading newbie is usually ready to admit he or she needs to really learn how to trade before going live again, or, worse, to quit this whole “gambling nonsense” for good.
First thing I say when approached by such a frustrated trading newcomer is: Welcome to the trading world! This very same experience is, in fact, common to almost every trader that ever existed (you guessed it, including myself again…). Just study the history of the great investors, from the trading legends like Jesse Livermore, Bernard Baruch, and Edward Francis Hutton, to investment superstars like George Soros and Warren Buffet. All of them, at some point of their career (usually near to its start), managed to lose money.
The initial loss is some sort of a “baptism” for every trader. That is why, when mentoring a new student, I always guide him/her to start trading on a demo account. And to load the first live account with just a very small amount of money (preferably few hundred dollars). It is absolutely vital to make the first losing experience as painless as possible.
Only after a trader goes through what I described above, he or she is ready to begin with the real trading education. The trading pro realizes the true scope of risks attached to trading, and thus devotes him- or herself to digging deep into the Technical Analysis, and to learn how to trade conservatively in order to make rather smaller amounts of profit, but make them consistently and over the long haul. Those traders who do NOT pass this point, usually quit trading. They are responsible for the shockingly high 89% of trading losers.
Let us now talk a bit about the reasons WHY traders really lose money. Since I was able to talk to many traders from different corners of this wonderful planet, I can honestly say that majority of them show the same reasons to the trading failure.
THE MOST FREQUENT REASONS ARE:
1. No quality trading education and know-how;
2. Poor, or nonexisting, trading plan;
3. Lack of trading discipline;
4. Underestimating the importance of money management;
5. Trading on inner “impulses” or “inspirations”;
6. Trading with the money that one cannot afford to lose;
7. Knowing a little, or nothing, about the psychology of trading.
I personally went through all of the stages of the trading education. In fact, I designed my FOREX Training to actually help ME first to trade better. Yes, I trade my own systems. Yes, I obey my trade signals. And I’m successful. Now you can join me - and be too…
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »