Archive for December, 2007
Trade-free Christmas & HNY!
By Marek W. Stupka | December 23, 2007
Till January 6, 2008 I am not going to be available to you as FX advisor. I will also temporarily stop posting blog updates and render trade signals…
In case you wonder what I WILL be doing: I will finally be taking some time off, doing some skiing, partying, celebrating, and going nuts. Please do not try to IM me. Any email you send from now on will only be answered on Monday, January 7, the soonest.
Have yourself a wonderful Christmas. Don’t forget what this Holiday really is all about. And who. Have a splendid happy New Year 2008! Stay trade-free. Forget about your notebook for a while. Enjoy life! And get some sleep too…
MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR 2008 !!
Topics: Lifestyle Of A Trader | No Comments »
Euro Weaker. What’s Next?
By Marek W. Stupka | December 16, 2007
In the last weeks euro, strenghtened by the weak dollar, managed to climb to price levels just few pips short of the magic 1.5000 level. Correcting now…
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture] Note that the price has deviated from the long-term ascending channel, and is now posting the inevitable corrective move.
If you look closer, you can observe that the very last price action actually starts to form a distinct mid-term descending channel. For those of my 1-on-1 Students, this setup will only seem familiar, since it is supported by the MACDH and Stochastic Convergence Scenario…
The last trade I took on this pair [ click here to view my trade journal ] came out positive. On this setup, the coming week seems to store other opportunities!
NOTE TO MY 1-ON-1 STUDENTS: All Ichy Freaks out there, watch out! In the daily EURUSD chart above you can see that the price action has just hit the Resistance line of the Kumo cloud. This might indicate possible range-bound trading, at least for a couple of 1-day candles. It is thus important to be patient, and only take a trade when the setup is close to perfection. Check the 4h and 1w setups too, as usual…
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
$ Bulls Strongest in 2 Years!
By Marek W. Stupka | December 16, 2007
On Friday, the dollar bulls surprised us all with posting the longest 1-day candle since May 2005. Morevoer, the rally began at the European open…
On the last trading day of the last week, we have witnessed the strongest dollar bull attack in 2 years! As surprising as it may seem, the euro fans were hunt away from the scene!
There are several factors that can be attributed to such a fierce price action, such as the last US strong consumer price index release, overall risk-aversive behavior of investors, as well as Lufthansa’s purchase of a stake in JetBlue…
In addition, this price kamikadze began at the time of opening of the European session. This means, that they were the European traders who have triggered the euro meltdown.
There’s a separate article on this new short- to mid-term correction in my blog’s Trader’s Corner section. Check it out to get better insight in the technical background of the move.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
Still Long on GBPJPY …
By Marek W. Stupka | December 9, 2007
In my last Trader’s Corner post I predicted mid- to long-term reversal in the Japanese Yen, namely in the most dynamic carry pair. Still long here…
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture ] Observe the 1d chart for GBPJPY above. The green Resistance trend line has just been broken. To those familiar with the Technical Analysis Volume II. (module 4 of the 1-on-1 Training) should also be obvious from the chart above that the pattern posted by the indicators is actually a bullish convergence scenario.
Moreover, the pair posts the same bullish pattern on the 1w chart, supported by a reversal off the profound long-term channel Support line. Anyway, to conclude this simplified analysis, we should be aware of the fact that there might be some volatily ahead of us, but the general picture is definitely Yen bearish - and thus GBPJPY bullish…
After the last trade I took on this pair [ click here to view my trade journal ], it seems that the following week has another trading opportunity in store for us!
NOTE TO MY 1-ON-1 STUDENTS: Watch this pair as well as other carry and major pairs, in the days to come. I will do my utmost to produce another trade signal in the course of the coming week. As usual, the signal will be delivered exclusively to the inboxes of my students soon enough to analyze it and trade it.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
Angry About the Low $?
By Marek W. Stupka | December 9, 2007
Whenever I speak to my American friends about the current exchange rate of the US dollar, the words they use are “ridiculous” and “unbearable”…
In the course of 2007, the once glamorous American currency shrank to levels deeply annoying every American tourist travelling virtually anywhere in the world. Since I work with exchange rates, I am constantly bombarded with questions on how is this possible?!!
There are several reasons to the low dollar. One of the most obvious of them is the expanding American indebtness. If you follow the history of the TICS data, you realize that the American economy runs on an ever-increasing debt, while there’s nothing on the horizon that would be able to stop this speeding train …
I am not going to dig deep into what actually causes America to have such a huge debt (well, if the war on terror comes into your mind, you’re on the right track here). Another reason is the unfamous crisis in the subprime credit sector. Yet another one is without doubt the low-performing housing sector. Etc.
But here’s what I recommend to my friends living on the American continent: There is a way to actually make up for the losses you experience when exchanging dollars for euros, pounds, or yens. Curious about what I have in mind?
TRADE THE EUR/USD (AND OTHER FOREX PAIRS) - AND MAKE SOLID PROFIT FROM THE LEVERAGED INCREASES AND DECREASES IN THE CURRENCY PRICE LEVELS !!
Read more about how you too can participate in my 1-on-1 Training and LEARN HOW to do trade FOREX with consistent profits (even while you have a full-time job).
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
Trichet to Stop $ Correction?
By Marek W. Stupka | December 6, 2007
Voices in the US media expressing concerns about an imminent start of a recession seem to form a double top now. Today’s ECB conference holds the clue…
To all investors sticking around the currency markets for a while it is obvious that the US currency exchange rate is just a reflection of the US economy staus quo. The economy performs low = greenback goes down (for the most part, at least). But what does the ECB, and its current president, Mr. Trichet, have to do with the possible American recession?!!
On todays’ press conference Mr. Trichet focused mostly on the price tenses burbling up in the EZ economy. He did not refelect on the possible dangers of weak consumer spending in the Eurozone, and suggested to combat the trend of easing the monetary policy, and thus possibly hike rates for the Q1 of 2008…
However, many analysts (me including) are skeptical of Jean Claude Trichet’s posture, and believe that the boast we were able to hear today is simply too much a bite for the bank.
Although there are vast differences between the attitudes of two world’s biggest central banks, and their plans to set monetary policies of their countries for the beginning of 2008, we continue to prefer the rather topping-out-of-the-greenback-losses outlook…
Topics: Uncategorized | No Comments »