Archive for February, 2008
US Dollar at Record Lows !
By Marek W. Stupka | February 27, 2008
Another set of record-breaking price levels for the Euro paired against its major rival, the US dollar. Interesting though, the fundamentals…
… were not what triggered the aggressive dollar selling this time. Want to know what the catalyst was? Combination of comments from FED President Kohn and trade position stops being taken out at the prior high!! Markets are also pricing-in FED’s expeceted 50bp cut…
These catalysts, lined up with a weaker US consumer confidence and stronger Eurozone economic data forced the greenback to fall to levels near to the psychological Resistance 1.5000. At least that’s what they say…
Note, however, that many trade position stops are placed at this rather significant price level of the referential EURUSD currency pair. Therefore, do not expect the market to cross this line easily. Candles and bars might get a little shaky this week..
Note, however, that we at GI are not fundamental traders. This means that our trade positions are triggered by sophisticated technical systems. We only consider fundamentals to be generators of market moves, but we never try to determine in which direction the market is going to move judged solely by the economic reports. If you - like many other successful traders from around the world - would like to adopt the back-tested GI trading strategies, please visit Gepard Investments, Inc. website for more information.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
And Indeed - EUR Dipped!!
By Marek W. Stupka | February 18, 2008
In my last post, I predicted the Euro to make a temporary correction within the drawn red ascending triangle range. The prediction was right again…
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture] Observe the 1D chart for EURUSD above. The red, long-term ascending triangle has formed an important range for the pair’s price action.
However, considering the fundamental background descibed in the What’s Hot section, but most of all respecting the technical (Ichimoku cloud Resistance) scenario on the 4h below, there are very good chances for this referential FX pair to stay range-bound this week…
There will of course be other trading opportunities this week perfectly attractive for us to take. Apart from today’s holiday (President’s Day, US), the markets have quite an interesting data set in store for us …
I WILL TRY MY BEST to produce another trading signal in the coming days, preferably on one of the majors or carry trade crosses. As you probably know by now, my most preferred currency pairs are the 4 FX majors, and the GBPJPY along with the EURJPY. After having traded hundreds of setups on these pairs, I am pretty much familiar with their performance, data sensitivity and data-implied volatility. Please review my recent trading results for more insight [ click here to view my trade journal ].
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
Markets and the US Consumer
By Marek W. Stupka | February 18, 2008
It is a known fact that the confidence of an average US consumer has the power to influence global markets like no other institution on earth …
Last week, the FOREX community has witnessed a classy example of the above statement - problems in the housing and labor markets forced consumer sentiment to 16-year lows !!
These numbers, lined up with a drop of the manufacturing activity in the NY region to 4-year low, caused FED Chairman, Ted Bernanke, to warn investors that consumer spending could remain under pressure…
In January 2008, US Retail Sales jumped up 0.3% which surpassed expectations. However, given the turn of consumer sentiment and Bernanke’s bearish comments, consumer spending might very well drop once again..
US growth figures send us a clear message that the US economy is in trouble and the Federal Reserve will have to continue in its rate-cutting procedures. On the other hand, Friday’s import price numbers aggressively turned invetors’ attention towards the old inflation problem. From this stance, there will be a pressure on the US FED to at least keep the rates steady in order to combat possible inflation threats. This said, I have to remind all of the readers of my blog what is it that has always been the absolute Nr.1 priority of Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues - to keep the US inflation under control! And so no one would want to be in Ted Bernanke’s shoes these days. There are simply too many contraproductive pressures on what he should do next…
For the reasons above, we at Gepard Investments, Inc. prefer a rather range-bound EURUSD trading scenario in the week to come. However, as all of my 1-on-1 students know by now, we do NOT base our investment decisions on the Fundamental Analysis. We only take the fundamental reports as generators of the market moves, and base our trading on the Technical Analysis. To see a very simplified TA please visit the Trader’s Corner section of this blog. If you would like to receive a comprehensive trading education with my full 1-on-1 backup and attention, and see detailed technical setups of various FOREX markets, you are welcome to apply for the GI 1-on-1 Training Course.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
EUR Ready for a Small Dip
By Marek W. Stupka | February 3, 2008
After the last week’s collapse in the global equity markets EURUSD managed to climb to its all-time highs. It is now set for a short-term correction…
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture ] Observe the 1D chart for EURUSD above. The red, long-term ascending triangle forms an important range for the pair’s next price action.
The technicals are clearly favoring inevitable correction from the all-time Resistance. If we take a closer look at the lower time scales, e.g. 4h - which is always a useful insight to get - we discover a Divergence Scenario right on the last couple of candles of our chart…
This trading opportunity, however, is not to be traded immediately, and requires additional time to “ripe”, t.m. to produce a legitimate signal according to THE CONFIRMATOR Trading System. I will render new update to the PDF Chart Planner as soon as the signal is given…
JUST IN CASE YOU WONDER: THE CONFIRMATOR is my own, back-tested, mid-term trading system, and is offered in its entirety to all of my 1-on-1 students, along with 2 other proven (short-term and long-term) systems. I use my own systems to trade FOREX, and I am successful [ click here to view my trade journal ]. Now you can join the Gepard trading community, learn everything you need to trade this fascinating market with consistent profits, and become successful too!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
What Do TRADERS Want? (3)
By Marek W. Stupka | February 3, 2008
In November 2007, I wrote two short articles on what traders really desire. The response has been amazing! Today, I’ve got new things to share…
As I already mentioned in the November posting, depiction of what you can buy for the trading proceeds has instant stimulating effect on all traders. >>> Wait a minute! We’re in the world’s largest market !! Ours is the legitimate right to plan on buying these things !!!
However - and I believe you agree with me here - it is equally necessary to realize trading is NOT AN EASY JOB (although it might look like one at the first glance)! In the 2-nd article in this series I mentioned that trading means working hard, dedicating yourself to trading, and requires patience and skill…
Today, I’d like to share with you few additional comments on the subject. As a FOREX mentor, I am constantly bombarded with questions (mostly by the novice students) on how fast can a newcomer reach profit from trading and become “filthy” rich.
If you have the same question to ask, let me answer it for you right here, right now. Successful trading, as any other serious money-making activity under the sun, was not “implanted into you” on the day when you were born! Trading skill has to be acquired, learned. It has been the same case with EVERY SINGLE trader I know of, me including. You can’t expect yourself to be a successful trader after just a few weeks of demo trading, having a “surefire” indicator system depicted on one screen and a 10-point list of “bulletproof” advice from a third-class trading guru on another…
The trading know-how has to be learned from the pros. There’s tons of information on trading out there! Analysis, indicators, systems, techniques… And I guarantee you that >90% of that is trash. You have to be able to distinguish trash from the real thing. That’s why I am here for. I do not train others for a living - I TRADE for a living! And I offer my trading advice to selected students for a symbolic price in order to keep in touch with other traders around the world, and share my trading ideas with them. The market is big enough to not get distorted by such common trading practices. I enjoy the connection! And I’m happy to see my students grow into successful traders. > visit GI to know more…
Topics: Lifestyle Of A Trader | No Comments »
Why Do Traders Lose (2)
By Marek W. Stupka | February 1, 2008
In my November posting, I wrote that as many as 89% of all traders end up losing their money invested in trading. Read on. I’ve got new things to share…
Traders usually start trading because they want more freedom. They want to live and make their money anywhere on the planet. They want to make their dreams come true.
Well, as I already wrote, this cool-n-easy way of making fast cash on trading is usually replaced by feelings of profound frustration, anger, and bitterness.
See, trading is no amateur’s game. After a couple of weeks of trading, a trading newbie is usually ready to admit he or she needs to really learn how to trade before going live again, or, worse, to quit this whole “gambling nonsense” for good.
What most trading novices don’t realize is that all traders lose in the beginning. I had too. The initial loss is some sort of a “baptism” for every trader. That is why, when mentoring a new student, I always guide him/her to start trading on a demo account. And to load the first live account with just a very small amount of money (preferably few hundred dollars). It is absolutely vital to make the first losing experience as painless as possible.
Only after a trader goes through what I described above, he or she is ready to begin with the real trading education. The trading pro realizes the true scope of risks attached to trading, and thus devotes him- or herself to digging deep into the Technical Analysis, and to learn how to trade conservatively in order to make rather smaller amounts of profit, but make them consistently and over the long haul. Those traders who do NOT pass this point, usually quit trading. They are responsible for the shockingly high 89% of trading losers.
This is absolutely vital! Therefore, let me now repeat the reasons WHY do traders lose. Since I was able to talk to many traders from different corners of this wonderful planet, I can honestly say that majority of them show the same reasons to trading failure.
THE MOST FREQUENT REASONS ARE:
1. No quality trading education and know-how;
2. Poor, or nonexisting, trading plan;
3. Lack of trading discipline;
4. Underestimating the importance of money management;
5. Trading on inner “impulses” or “inspirations”;
6. Trading with the money that one cannot afford to lose;
7. Knowing a little, or nothing, about the psychology of trading.
I personally went through all of the stages of the trading education. In fact, I designed my FOREX Training to actually help ME first to trade better. Yes, I trade my own systems. Yes, I obey my trade signals. And I’m successful. Now you can join me - and be too…
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »