Archive for April, 2008
US FED To Cut Rates Again !
By Marek W. Stupka | April 27, 2008
Despite the fact that economic growth in the US has slowed considerably and the credit markets remain tight, this week the FED is about to cut again…
There’s one and only one reason for Bernanke & Co. to slash interest rates even more. Wonder what the reason might be? Inflation, ladies and gentlemen, the scariest of all of the nightmares of Mr. Banker, makes him and his team keeping the rate-cutting tradition.
Inflation concerns have been found on top of the FED’s agenda ever since Bernanke took the office. Well, this time it seems that we really can’t blame him - with commodity prices, including oil, wheat, rice, etc. skyrocketing, it is no surprise that recent CPI data showed rise in building prices in the USA…
However, many analysts agree that the FED guys are not going to cut rates for more than 25bp this time. Lately, there’s been an extensive discussion among the FOMC members, and some of them are already begining to show signs of a distinct hawkish tone…
And again, please be aware that we at Gepard Investments DO NOT base our trading on fundamental analysis. Fundamentals only serve as GENERATORS OF MARKET MOVES. Our trading is triggered by properly backtested, trading systems, built on sophisticated and still easy-to-apply technical strategies. We keep track with the latest economy reports and analysis, but we base our trading on tested technical patterns. A complex trading education is being offered exclusively to my 1-on-1 students (their number grows extensively) for a rather symbolic training fee. The training also includes access to the 3 tested systems and their updates, as well as to many other online features e.g. personalized Trade Journal able to record numeric details of your every trade, chart screenshots, remarks, etc.. Please visit the Gepard Investments, Inc. website for details.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
Greenback Finds Support!
By Marek W. Stupka | April 27, 2008
The important psychological EURUSD level of 1.6000 has proven to form a solid support for the ever-weakening American currency…
[ Click on the chart to see bigger picture ] Inspect the EURUSD chart above closely. After several attempts to break this price level, the pair has just realized it needs some time to let off steam, and make a correction move.
We should not forget that we, currency investors, work in an ever cyclical environment. The cycles can be long-term, but also mid- and short-term, submerging into one another. Just like the US economy is finding itself sloping downhill the long-term, cyclical wave towards the macro bottom, the shorter up and down moves can and must be found in every chart we look at…
It is the same case, of course, with the EURUSD. Every trend has to have its end. And then the market consolidates, corrects, or even reverses. That’s the way it is. That’s the way the markets work. And that’s the way we make money, too!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »
EUR Ready For a Breakout!
By Marek W. Stupka | April 13, 2008
The following week is very likely to be big for the FX market. We will see plenty of important fundamental reports. On the calendar, there are…
…economic data like US consumer spending, inflation, manufacturing and housing market numbers, etc. And the list doesn’t end here. The prevailing sentiment and expectations of global currency investors speak in favor of the EURUSD breakout in the days to come.
The US dollar has already weakened quite considerably due to the trouble of the corporate sector. For the first time in 5 years, General Electric reported a quarterly drop in profit. The Bear Sterns catastrophy has hit their Financial Division the fiercest, and forced GE to write down their assets at very low values which resulted in 42% deeper losses. Frontier Airlines followed Aloha, ATA, and Skybus, and became the fourth airline in the USA to file for bancruptcy this month. Core prices like fuel, energy, and food have thus proven to have higher impact on the economy as some expected. As if this wasn’t enough, the greenback weakness was exacerbated by the sharp drop in consumer confidence. The Michigan CI came to lows not seen in the market for 26 years…
Moreover, the technical setup speaks exactly the same language. The signals we get from our mid- to long-term setups suggest that a radical change from the recent relatively calm trading activity is to be expected soon …
As usual, I will not reveal details of my Technical Analysis here in the articles of this blog - if you want to know more, please visit the Gepard Investments, Inc. website.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
What Do I Do Before I Trade
By Marek W. Stupka | April 12, 2008
I keep receiving emails from many of you out there with questions about my trading style. Lately, you’ve been asking what it is I do before I enter a trade…
OK, since I already have a separate ebook dealing with this issue written for my 1-on-1 students, I am going to make it publically available so that anyone can read it. Yes, U2 …
Download the ebook (now for free) by clicking on the following link:
Free ebook - “Market Watchers”
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
US Jobs Deteriorating !!
By Marek W. Stupka | April 9, 2008
The so much talked about American recession might slowly become an indisputable, ugly reality. Expect the US job growth to stay negative for at least 6 months!
In the month of March there was a lot of trading activity to be seen in the currency markets. Despite the obvious slowdown in the greenback fall in the beginning of April 2008, we do not advocate short- to mid-term dollar bulls. Reason? Deteriorating US labor market.
The American job market, one of the 3 major propellers of the US economy, is very likely to get even worse in the coming 5-6 months. With ATA and Aloha Airlines announcing substantial layoffs, global investors have heard the news of Dell and Motorola joining the team and announcing even more layoffs. These 4 companies alone will shave as much as 14k from the overal US workforce…
Moreover, the US central bank interest rate level is sloping down like a fat Austrian skier equipped with a nice pair of Rossignol ski, rolling down one of the mighty hills of Alps. The minutes from the March 18 FOMC meeting indicate that the FED has very likely not decided yet how much they will cut off the current interest rate on April 30. Most analysts agree that they will bring down the rates to 1.75% minimum. Here, however, the agreement comes to an end - the analysts worldwide, as well as the FED officials themselves (as it seems), are not in accord whether to cut rates for another 25 bp or not!!
Whatever we will see the FED doing in the end of the month, one thing is pretty certain. They will definitely bring the interest rates down. By this rather unpopular act (just few months ago the FED interest rates had been as high as twice the expected April level) they will reduce their macro ammunition, and constitute an environment for the inflation to stoke.
Note, however, that we at GI do not base our trading on the fundamental analysis. In other words, we use sophisticated technical trading strategies to predicting where the market will go - visit the Gepard Investments, Inc. website for more information.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
Swissie Reaching Parity!
By Marek W. Stupka | April 9, 2008
Over the last few days, the CHF has finally succeeded in its long-time effort to reach parity with the USD. In fact, the decline started as soon as in 2000…
[ Click on the chart to see bigger picture ] If we take a closer look at the weekly USDCHF chart above, we can see a nice long-term descending channel constituted in the end of 2000. There is no doubt - the most “trusted” European currency is on the rise.
Observe the daily chart for the same currency pair. We can see that after a distinct breakout down from the upper channel Support, there has been a nice move all the way down to the lower, parallel channel Support line…
Please note that THE ABOVE IS JUST THE PAIR’S GENERAL, LONG-TERM SETUP. In order to actually know WHEN AND HOW TO TRADE this pair with success (and other currency pairs too) you would have to subscribe to the 1-on-1 Training. Along with the most comprehensive and easy-to-follow trading education on the web you will also get access to all my charts as well as to very specific trade signals I use to trade my personal and managed accounts…
I will produce another trading signal this week, preferably for the USDCHF or any of the majors or carry trade crosses. Besides the USDCHF, the so-called “small”, or “commodity” dollars (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD) might have some pleasant surprises in store for us, since they are very much influenced by price action in the commodity markets which are at the peak levels again. I will do my best to include charts for them to my periodically updated PDF Chart Planner too. Let’s make use of the trading opportunities laying ahead of us! Let’s make another string of consistent profits - review my recent trading results to see the details [ click here to view my trade journal ].
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »