Archive for July, 2008
Commodities - Same Old Story! (2)
By Marek W. Stupka | July 24, 2008
In one of the previous articles posted on this blog I mentioned the possibility to also trade other instruments of the Financial Markets (namely commodity futures) using the very same technical toolset I use myself for managing my own money and the money of my clients, and teach in my training. Let’s now discuss the correlation between these markets…
Here’s a simple rule you need to know: The major commodity markets and the major currency markets are DIRECTLY CORRELATED.
If you haven’t noticed it yet, the referential EURUSD currency pair usually moves in direct positive correlation with the most commonly traded commodity futures. This becomes evidentally clear as you study crude oil and gold markets, and compare them to EURUSD. Once these markets begin to move in a distinct direction, EURUSD usually hops on the trend train too, and vice versa.
This comes very handy when trading currency majors. And this is the same thing that has happened recently - over the last few days, the commodity markets have made a somewhat fierce reversal when oil and gold corrected from their highly overbought trading territories. And so did the EURUSD. Please note that I have predicted this move in my recent blog post.
Of course, to really benefit from the above-described correlation you should be able to monitor what’s going on in the commodity markets. One (easy) way to follow these is to visit www.quote.com. Another way is to download the complex trading platforms allowing you to trade various FM instruments. You will find more about the pros and cons of various trading platforms in the Module I of the 1-on-1 Training course.
Topics: Miscellanous | 4 Comments »
Dollar Bulls Relieved! Temporarily?
By Marek W. Stupka | July 17, 2008
EURUSD hit a new 1.6038 record high on Tuesday morning, but the reignited Euro euphory has subsequently faded off as the US dollar managed to recover, supported by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
Significantly stronger-than-expected US CPI figures only added fuel to this temporary dollar recovery. Looking at the technical picture, we are definitely prefering shorting the pair at this point. Recent development in the commodity (oil) markets back our view, too. However, please note that a recovery like this was inevitable and the market needs it to keep its ever-cyclical mood, and the dollar bulls will very likely not be able to celebrate for long.
Fear of another Wall Street turmoil, bearish arguments for the US economic outlook, and concerns about the health of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, still speak in favor of the prevailing long-term Euro bullish trend to take over in the course of several days or weeks. Come back in few days for another fresh insight.
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
€ in 2 Submerging Channels! (2)
By Marek W. Stupka | July 17, 2008
In my recent technical post, I predicted the referential EURUSD curency pair to move within a distinct channel range submerging to a bigger channel on the 1d chart. The prediction has been right again! Check out what action the pair’s price has posted over the previous weeks…
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture] Inspect the 1d EURUSD chart above as it stands now. Want a quick market prophecy? After several attempts to break the red, inner channel Resistance level, the pair needs some time to let off steam and make a correction move downwards. The bearish scenario is also backed by the evident, and almost exemplary, Divergence Scenario on the 1d.
Detailed description of the way to capitalize on Convergence/Divergence Scenarios like the one you see in the 1d EURUSD chart above is included in the 1-on-1 Training. In fact, this is one of the most powerful and fascinating techniques ever used to trade the markets. It works like magic accross all time scales, with only few exceptions…
If you wonder what it takes to actually participate in the 1-on-1 Training, there’s an easy way to find out. Simply click here, and you will be taken to an information website with comprehensive description on how the course works. Since the training seats are limited, it is a good idea to check the course availability by sending me an email at marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 3 Comments »
What Do TRADERS Want? (4)
By Marek W. Stupka | July 4, 2008
In the past, I published a successful series of blog articles titled the same as today’s one. The readers response has been amazing …
…since, as it seems, once a trader gets the clear vision of what he or she can achieve by trading, the motivation and enthusiasm to trade the markets better rises high. And fast !!
Today, I do not want to repeat the same basic principles I mentioned in my previous posts when describing the way to achieve lasting profitability from trading. Please comb through the blog archives to read the related articles and capture the few simple, yet very important, rules of thumb.
Instead, I decided to make publically available another one of my educational ebooks (selected from a high number of textual, audio, and video training materials available to my 1-on-1 students). It is titled “The Sound Money Management Principles” and describes the essential money management issues every trader has to deal with when trying to trade responsibly and conservatively. The ebook is yours free. You can download it here. Enjoy.
Topics: Lifestyle Of A Trader | 3 Comments »
US NFP And Mr. Trichet !
By Marek W. Stupka | July 3, 2008
Today, the markets have seen two major fundamental stories happening in parallel. The US NFP and the ECB Chairman’s press conference…
…came out at the very same time - NFP release was moved due to the Independance Day holiday tomorrow. We all expected extended volatility. And we were not dissapointed!
Observe that the NFP came out in line with expectations, but Mr. Trichet, despite hiking the ECB interest rates to 4.25% today (which the market has already fully anticipated), had “no bias” during the press conference, and was decisively speaking on combating inflation in the Eurozone over the long run.
Mr. Trichet’s speech combined with the luckily-no-surprise NFP report from the United States caused the market to post a wonderful, one way down, NFP move. Please visit the Trader’s Corner section of this blog to see more details on how I traded this piece of news.
Note, however, that we at Gepard Investments, Inc. use fundamentals only as generators of the market moves. Today’s NFP move was a classy example. We prefer to base our trading on technical studies, and on proven, thouroughly backtested trading systems exploiting several easy-to-learn technical strategies …
Such technical strategies and trading systems are explained in great detail in my 1-on-1 training course. Many decided to get educated and let themselves be properly trained in order to become successful traders. Please visit the Gepard Investments, Inc. website to see how you can become one too.
Topics: Uncategorized | No Comments »
€ in 2 Submerging Channels!
By Marek W. Stupka | July 3, 2008
The referential FX pair, EURUSD, is trading in two submerging channels. Expect range trading to continue in the days to follow too…
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture ] Note the red channel (or trannel, as we call it at Gepard Investments) in the upper right corner of the chart above? This is the range EURUSD is moving in at the moment. Bear in mind this is the long-term, 1d chart, thus we are talking about the pair to range for at least few days if not weeks…
A more detailed, short-term view at today’s price action shows us, however, that the prevailing dollar weakness has slowly been fading over the last hours. This is fundamentally caused by the expected NFP number, released today at the time of Trichet’s press conference on the already anticipated ECB interest rate hike. Technically, the pair was just reversing from the overbought territory in the top part of the long-term range in our 1d chart.
NOTE TO MY 1-ON-1 STUDENTS: Today is a classy example of the NFP day on which the so-called Bollinger Band Squeeze strategy can be applied with definite success. Note the 15m chart below. Study the training materials for Module V, Day A to know more…
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | No Comments »