Archive for August, 2008
Is This the Recovery of the US Economy?
By Marek W. Stupka | August 30, 2008
The American dollar recovered from its temporary losses after a government report showed that the U.S. economy expanded faster than expected. The Commerce Department in Washington announced that in the second quarter of 2008 the American GDP increased at the annual pace of 3.3 percentage points which truly is a surprisingly positive news when compared with the original estimate of 1.9 percent.
The U.S. economy has been stimulated by two major macroeconomy injections: 1. Better exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against its major trading partners and 2. Surge in continental exports (in fact, over the last 30 years this contributed the most to American growth). As a result, the Q2 2008 U.S. trade deficit shrank to $376.6 billion and added 3.1 percentage points to the GDP growth, which is the highest number since 1980.
Yet, boldly claiming that the U.S. economy is on the rise again would be preliminary, if not unwise. There are other important elements of a country’s economic health. Take this figure, for example: the total number of unemployed active people in the USA stands now at more than 3.4 million - the highest number since November 2003. Or take the impact of crude oil prices: as they edge higher concerns over the U.S. financial system increase, with talk of substantial job losses at Lehman Brothers. Moreover, a story in The Wall Street Journal suggested that Jefferson County, Alabama, is facing what could be the largest ever municipal bankruptcy. In addition, the global economic slowdown outside the United States is also likely to weigh on the American growth in the weeks and months to come…
Topics: News From Wall Street | 4 Comments »
As Predicted on August 17, Euro Consolidated!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 21, 2008
As per the simple analysis in my recent technical post, the major EURUSD curency pair bounced off the bottom of the green ascending channel drawn on the profoundly long-term 1w chart. Note that the prediction was right. Again! Check out the pair’s last movement in the chart below…
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture] Have a closer look at the 1w EURUSD chart. The price has wonderfully obeyed the important Support trend line, and the pair has consolidated, making a reversal move.
There are at least 2 WAYS TO MAKE MONEY on a movement like the one you see above. One is to open a profoundly long-term position in line with the S/R analysis (of course, it has to be backed by more sophisticated technical tools taught in my training course). The other one is to use mid-term technical studies to trade with the current trend, and use THE CONFIRMATOR = my mid-term Trading System to capitalize on multiple price bounces during the pair’s fall…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 2 Comments »
This Is How We Backtest
By Marek W. Stupka | August 17, 2008
A student of mine did a wonderful job on backtesting one of my trading systems, The Confirmator. I took the liberty to present here his final results applied to GBPUSD. Observe the spreadsheet below…
The backtesting idea is not just about the pip gains and win to loss ratio! This testing has been applied on a system that I teach. This diligent trainee wrote down the rules, he followed those rules, and tracked his results.
May his approach be a great example for all of the traders out there! See, many traders I train never take the effort to backtest one single trade. This guy is on his path to become a very successful trader…
Note that in the table above, it is trading with the most conservative SL/PL that brings the best results with win percentage between 70-80%! On the contrary, aggressive trading (which I never recommend) lingers around the so much feared 50% win percentage. The point is clear. Don’t be aggressive. Stay conservative, at all times.
Topics: FOREX Trading Systems | 2 Comments »
EURUSD - How Far South Can It Go?
By Marek W. Stupka | August 17, 2008
After the referential EURUSD major made the spectacular correction move predicted in my post from July 17, it has been continuing on its downward path ever since. Now I keep receiving questions on how far more do I think the pair is about to fall. Well, check out the chart below:
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture] Have a closer look at the 1w EURUSD chart. Profoundly long-term, 1 week chart scales are especially suitable for cases like this is. Can you recognize in the chart the green ascending channel (or trannel, as we like to call it at GI)? Can you see how it is just crossing the 1.4600 price level as we speak? Well, this level is very likely to become the pair’s next Support where the pair is likely to consolidate. Another, very strong Support level is at 1.4400 = the top of the kumo cloud also backed by the historical support from 12/2007 and 1/2008.
Of course, to be able to MAKE MONEY on setups like the one you see above you need a much more sophisticated technical toolset than what is being presented here. The 3 fully working, back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits are at full disposal to every participant of my 1-on-1 Forex Training. They comprise exact rules on when, what, how much, and for how long, you are supposed to trade…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems mentioned above, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 2 Comments »
As Predicted on July 17, Euro Felt Tumbling Down!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 7, 2008
As per the simple analysis in my recent technical post, the major currency pair felt to the bottom of the red channel submerging to the bigger (green) channel on the 1d chart. Note that the prediction was right. Again! Check out the pair’s last movement in the chart below…
[Click on the chart to see bigger picture] Have a closer look at the 1d EURUSD chart. The price has wonderfully obeyed both technical Support and Resistance lines, and has tumbled ALL THE WAY DOWN to the red channel’s very bottom.
There are at least 2 WAYS TO MAKE MONEY on a movement like the one you see above. One is to open a profoundly long-term position in line with the S/R analysis (of course, it has to be backed by more sophisticated technical tools taught in my training course). The other one is to use mid-term technical studies to trade with the current trend, and use THE CONFIRMATOR = my mid-term Trading System to capitalize on multiple price bounces during the pair’s fall…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 5 Comments »
Both FED and ECB Leaving Rates Unchanged!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 7, 2008
Over the last 2 days the whole trading community has watched how both of the world’s biggest central banks did - exactly NOTHING. They both have decided to leave their interest rates unchanged.
On Wednesday, the FOMC’s policy statement expressed very clearly that any 75bps rate hike speculation over the next 12 months is now totally out of question. The FOMC essentially said that they would leave rates fixed at 2.00 percent going forward (very likely until after the US elections in November) since they “noted downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation.”
The officials of the European Central Bank have just announced their rate decision. They did what the vast majority of the Capital Market investors expect them to do - they left rates steady at 4.25%. Moreover, 45 minutes after the ECB rate announcement, the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet gave his monthly press conference where he remained focused on inflation and price stability, and said that “recent economic data pointed toward a weakening of real GDP growth in mid-2008″.
Both influential fundamental reports left the EUR/USD on its current downward path. The recent weak Euro-zone data as well as the prevailing mid-term, USD bearish, sentiment have logically had a bigger impact on the referential FX currency pair.
Please note that I have predicted the pair to fall (already on July 17). Technically, the EURUSD price has made an inevitable correction within the submerging channel on the 1d chart. Check out the next technical post to find out more…
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
Who Says A Trader’s Life Is Boring?
By Marek W. Stupka | August 1, 2008
Who says that life of a trader is just the same boring I’m-watching-the-charts-again stuff? Lately, I’ve been to a wonderful trip around Florida, first visiting my friends in Melbourne, FL, and then continuing to Daytona Beach (famous rally), St. Augustine (the most ancient US city), Orlando, Tampa, Clearwater, Venice, Miami. Oh, and I managed to buy a new ride there, too…
WOOOOOOOOOOHA! To all of you who sent me personal well wishes - thanks. I’ve really had a blast in Florida! The place was cool. The car is a 25th Anniversary Silver Edition Nissan 350Z with 300hp, and I already drove it all around the Sunny State to check out its real charms. It drives like a beast!
However, a little but very annoying trouble occured when shipping the car to Europe. There have been shipment delays in the port of Miami and it seems it takes these guys forever to ship a single car across the Atlantic and have it cleared through German customs! I had to wait for 4 FULL WEEKS to actually get the news that my new ride has finally left the Miami port. At the moment, the shipment is on the water, and I’m awaiting its arrival to Bremerhaven, Germany. So please pray the car gets on the European soil and safely joins my BMW. Thanks guys. And happy trading, by the way…
Topics: Lifestyle Of A Trader | 3 Comments »