Archive for September, 2008
USA As a Giant Credit Card?
By Marek W. Stupka | September 30, 2008
If you look at the thinkflow and actions (some fortunately stopped from being taken) of the current American Government you swiftly get the impression that every mess the country finds itself in can simply be erased by just another ton of borrowed money. The American economy can always be handled as the most gigantic credit card in the world. Or, can’t it?
Unfortunately, no economy can afford to keep this attitude forever, and ever, end ever…, without having to face the music some day. There definitely are limits to the philosophy of extending the nation’s debt and calling it good for the system. Yesterday’s rejection of the Bush/Paulson bailout plan by the U.S. House, and the consequent fall in the stock markets, was a clear indication of this simple truth.
If you think about it, there are three pretty straightforward reasons to the current state of the US economy. They are: 1. The borrow-the-buck-and-don’t-think-about-tomorrow philosophy of a typical American consumer, and government for that matter; over the past few years promoted, sustained, and taken to even higher levels, by the US mortgage banks and their agents, 2. The war in Iraq which turned out to be as bizarre as it is money-consuming, 3. The current downslope of the global economy cycle.
An experienced Wall Street stock trader said that “…what markets really need right now is the atmosphere of decisiveness.” It is not the money. Pumping the borrowed cash into the economy’s pipes would be like giving an aspirin to a patient who’s got a developed cancer. Wall Street simply needs leadership, somebody in the presidential chair who would announce the war against indebtness and (at least pretend that he) know(s) what he’s doing. This is the only prescription to cure the illness and get in the prosperity zone again…
However, Mr. Bush’s political capital seems to be spent to the very last penny, and the country is on the edge of the next presidential elections. So the emotional race of the two candidates only adds fuel to the indecisiveness and uncertainty that has possessed America in the past weeks.
I GET FEEDBACK FROM STOCK TRADERS AROUND THE WORLD, SOME REALLY TERRIFIED AND EMOTIONALLY AS WELL AS FINANCIALLY EXHAUSTED. PLENTY DECIDE TO WAIT TILL THE ELECTIONS, OTHERS QUIT TRADING FOR GOOD.
HOWEVER, NOTE THAT FOREX TRADING HAS NOT EXPERIENCED ANY PLUMMETING LIKE WE’VE SEEN IN THE STOCK MARKETS LATELY. OBSERVE THE CHART ABOVE! CAN YOU SEE HOW THE CURRENCY MARKETS RESPONDED TO THE EVENTS OF THE PAST WEEKS? NO SUDDEN AND CHAOTIC VOLATILITY, JUST A SERIES OF TRADABLE TECHNICAL PATTERNS. AND THUS, MY ANSWER TO STOCK TRADERS IS ALWAYS THE SAME AS IT HAS BEEN FOR YEARS:
“QUIT THE UNPREDICTABLE AND CHAOTIC JUNGLE OF STOCK (AND BOND) TRADING, AND SWITCH TO TRADING CURRENCIES. TRADE FOREX AND YOU CAN EVEN CAPITALIZE ON SITUATIONS LIKE THE ONE WE SEE TODAY…”
Topics: News From Wall Street | 3 Comments »
Currencies - One of the Safest Markets Today !!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 19, 2008
This week, fear has dominated the global stock markets. Black Monday and Terrible Tuesday tragedies described in my last post were followed by even deeper financial crisis, despite billion-dollar injections of major central banks. Newspapers around the world published picture of a Wall Street trader pressing a cellphone to his ear and crying in despair…
Stocks of several US, EU and Asian financial institutions felt to record lows, domino-effected by tragedies of the Lehman Brothers, AIG (mercifully helped by the US Government), Goldman Sachs and the like. Major stock indexes experienced chaotic volatility, pledging many traders’ accounts.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST DEVELOPMENT IN THE FOREX MARKETS BROUGHT NOTHING ELSE BUT A SERIES OF PREDICTABLE TECHNICAL PATTERNS!
The 4h EURUSD chart above shows a “classy” descending channel breakout followed by a triangle formation that is close to perfection! This exemplary and easily tradable triangle has been formed this very week, t.m. in the same period of time when stock and bond markets posted unpredictable, chaotic, and aggressive moves, causing that guy from the magazine photo to cry a river full of bitter tears…
Moreover, the 1d EURUSD chart has posted a beautiful correction towards the first Fibonacci level, so often seen in any non-turbulent market. And it’s not just the EURUSD. Check out the AUDUSD, for instance!
This article was written to prove how safe is the market we operate in. Want the reasoning? Simple. Our market is not influenced by the outcomes of specific companies or banks, rather by the outcomes of the world’s most prosperous countries. These are mostly scheduled in the economy calendars, leaving as small room for unexpected surprises as possible. In addition, world’s biggest economies are very hard to file for bankruptcy!
Apart from the above, FOREX has other advantages as well. Today, I want to challenge you to switch to trading currencies, whatever other market you trade (except maybe T-Bills, commodity futures, and some selected options). FOREX simply is one of the SAFEST MARKETS to trade! If you want to learn FOREX trading 1-on-1, write me an email and we will work things out for you whatever mess you’re in…
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis, News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
Wall Street Turmoil - Impact on the FX Market!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 16, 2008
Today, the global Financial Markets have experienced a turmoil that some describe as the beginning of a collapse comparing to the Asian Financial crisis of 1997/98, the Savings and Loans crisis of the 1980’s and 1990’s, and some say even the Great Depression. Richard Quest of CNN reported from London that stock traders in the city have already found a name for today’s market behaviour - “The Terrible Tuesday”.
Wall Street has truly been shaken at its very roots. Lehman Brothers, the world’s third largest securities firm, filed for bankruptcy due to a drain on capital and liquidity. Stocks of AIG, the biggest insurance giant in the US, fell under $4.00! Goldman Sachs Q3 earnings sank 70%!
As a result, the primary risk asset, the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average, surged over 500 points to close below 11,000 for the first time since July 17th. The S&P Volatility Index (VIX) tumbled more than 30 percent for the first time since the March. The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell an unbelievable 51 basis points on the the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts expectations; and even the crude dropped to $92 per barrel (this move, however, was predictable - see my previous post).
NOW, WHAT WAS THE INFLUENCE OF ALL THIS ON THE FOREX MARKETS? Here’s the thing you have to remember. As a rule, Wall Street turmoils only have MUTED immediate effect on currencies. This is one of the GREAT ADVANTAGES AND BEAUTIES of trading FX. You don’t have to be afraid of sudden price spikes caused by unexpected fundamental events like the ones you see above. These news ALWAYS hit the stock & bond markets first.
In contrast to the obvious crisis and unexpected volatility in Wall Street, today’s currency trading has not been much different from just another smooth trading day. In fact, the major fundamental story of the FX day - the scheduled FED interest rate decision - came in line with expectations and caused only a few, price-limited, technically predictable, and easily tradable moves.
See why it pays choosing your traded instrument wisely? If you are a stock trader and today you have experienced another one of those fierce setbacks, I strongly recommend you to quit the unpredictable world of stock trading and join our FX trading community. You are warmly welcome to apply for the 1-on-1 FOREX Training, described by many as one of the best educational interfaces on trading on the net, and learn how to trade this predictable, fascinating market with consistent profits.
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
Trade Oil in the Same Way As You Trade FOREX!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 10, 2008
Fancy the falling oil prices? I’ve got good news to share. This one is supposed to brighten your day even more! You can now capitalise on the fall (and on the future rise as well) of the crude oil futures in the same fashion as you are capitalising already on the recent EURUSD moves…
I’ve already mentioned this subject in one of my previous posts, but it seems many traders still do not realize the amazing trading potential you get once you learn to trade the FOREX market majors. The reason is simple. Since FOREX is the largest, and the most liquid, market in the world once you get familiar with trading FOREX with consistent profits you are literally able to trade almost everything.
Of course, there are technical differences to trading other instruments of the Financial Markets (with commodity futures, for instance, you would have to pay margin and brokerage fees, only trade in the time window your chosen commodity exchange is open, follow a different set of fundamentals, etc.) but the most important thing it takes to trade the markets you already know! You guessed it right … it is the technical analysis and the sophisticated trading strategies and systems we use when trading FX.
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: Miscellanous | 4 Comments »
Euro Pushed South By the Freddie/Fannie Bailout!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 8, 2008
The US Government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac! This has been the Nr.1 fundamental story influencing the markets today. The dollar strenghtened within the 1h channel pushing the euro down south …
Although the market was expecting the bailout of the two largest US mortgage companies for some time, today’s price action has definitely surprised many investors. With the start of the Autumn season the markets are highly liquid and volatile again, and the strategic EURUSD major has just made another set of fresh lows.
NOW TO OUR PREFERRED ANALYSIS: THE TECHNICAL VIEW. The charting you see above is what we at Gepard Investments, Inc. use for planning our daily trades. [Click on the chart to see bigger picture]. In the chart, I have purposefully erased all the important data revealing how the system works and what it takes to trade it, to just present its general idea and, most importantly, to prove that it works well in all market situations, today’s one including.
We use mid-term technical studies to MAKE MONEY on the moves like you’ve seen today. To trade with the current trend, we apply the ALEXANDER Market Personality (used for trending marekts), and use THE CONFIRMATOR = my mid-term Trading System to capitalize on multiple price bounces during the pair’s fall…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Come back again in a few days for another fresh insight…
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis, FOREX Trading Systems | 2 Comments »
Euro Sabotaged By Two Jean-Claudes!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 4, 2008
The ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet’s lack of commitment towards future monetary policy caused the single European currency to lose 200 b.p. against its major counterpart, the US dollar. During the press conference, given 45 minutes after the ECB announced that it leaves the central bank’s interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, Mr. Eurobanker’s “no bias” comments left investors wondering about the future fate of the Euro Zone economics as well as the next ECB decision.
Moreover, at about the same time, another Jean-Claude (chairman of the Euro Zone finance ministers Jean-Claude Juncker) announced that the Euro Zone economic growth will slow to between 1.0-1.3 percent this year from 2.6 percent in 2007.
Juncker also revealed that in the first half of 2009 the economy could slow down even more. The addition that there is a chance of a pickup in growth in the second half of next year somewhat failed to sound optimistic, as it seems.
Today, both Jean-Claudes seemed to willingly undermine their own currency. However, the price action they caused in the currency markets was a blessing for all active traders, my trading team including - generating another straight set of profits…
Topics: News From Wall Street | 4 Comments »