Archive for October, 2008
FED’s Merciless Interest Rate Cut
By Marek W. Stupka | October 30, 2008
On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates 50 bp bringing them down to 1.0%. The rate cut is intended to ease the pain of an economy that has “slowed markedly”, and has brought interest rates to the level only achieved before once - amid the 2003 deflation scare.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues voted unanimously to cut their target for short-term interest rates to 1%. This level is supposed to offset the recent sharp tightening of credit conditions that threatens to plunge a weakening US economy into a recession.
US stocks immediately responded to the Fed’s move in a down-swing price action, but then moved higher. Investors also seem to be encouraged by reports that the US authorities might soon announce a new mortgage guarantee program to help restructuring home loans.
In parallel, there have been important things happening in the FOREX backyard, too. Japanese yen strengthened against greenback on expectations of a government bailout, reaching 98.00, the highest level since 1995. Apart from this move, the US dollar is now again widely perceived as “safe haven”, mostly due to liquidity concerns of the big hedge funds (most hedge funds are denominated in USD). These two trends generated A. Rebirth of the so called “carry trade” - if you don’t know the meaning, just search this site for the term, B. Excellent trading opportunities with any of the major currency pairs that includes the USD.
In these dramatic pre-elecion times, every trader needs to be aware of the true scope of trading opportunities out there. However, with every trading opportunity there is a certain level of risk involved. As the FOREX market has proven over the last weeks of turmoil it posts relatively low risk levels compared to other instruments. Now more than ever we see traders chosing currencies to be their playground (instead of risky equities or bonds).
If you have just found yourself in the lines above you are welcome to join my FOREX 1-on-1 Training no matter what the size of your planned investment is. Over the years of providing this unique training environment I have worked with professional traders as well as small individual investors. Some of my trainees even wrote “housewife” when asked what they do for a living. So the number of the students is high, but so is the comprehensiveness and benefit of the course. Feel free to apply today by sending a simple email explaining your trading experience, and your investment goals.
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
As Predicted on 10/21, US Dollar Skyrocketed !!
By Marek W. Stupka | October 26, 2008
Those of you who read my previous technical post and have followed my simple trading advice are now a few hundreds (thousands?, ten thousands? - it depends on how much you’ve invested) dollars richer. Note that the prediction has been accurate. Again !!!
The following statement is both true and powerful, and I have already mentioned it several times throughout this blog >> The FOREX market shows fantastic predictability and pattern recognition when compared with e.g. the stock or the bond markets (both now experiencing chaotic and unpredictable, bottom-headed slides) …
The price action in our 4h EURUSD chart [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ] is just another proof of the statement above. The referential currency pair made another fresh low, with USD skyrocketing to the levels predicted in the simple technical analysis from my last blog update (exploiting the convergence scenario). The recent Euro downmove brought money to every trader following my analysis.
Of course, to be able to REPEATEDLY CAPITALIZE on setups like the one you see above you need a much more sophisticated technical toolset than what is being presented here. The 3 fully working, back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits are at full disposal to every participant of my 1-on-1 Forex Training. They comprise exact rules on when, what, how much, and for how long, you are supposed to trade…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems mentioned above, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 2 Comments »
USD Listens to Bernanke & Global Markets!
By Marek W. Stupka | October 21, 2008
US dollar received support after FED Chairman, Mr. Bernanke, said that an additional US fiscal injection should be considered to help improve access to credit for consumers, homebuyers and businesses. USD also rose due to funding demand generated by big investment sharks…
We’ve already discussed that the FOREX market continues posting easily tradable patterns, even despite the equity markets make highly unpredictable, pre-election price moves. Currently, the currency market is traded in massive volumes - which is GREAT NEWS FOR ALL FX TRADERS since the liquidity of the world’s most liquid market is now even higher than the standard - with many big players in the industry withdrawing their money from risky equity instruments and pouring them into spot and future FOREX. This only proves right my claims made in the previous posts about the relatively low risk levels attached to FX trading…
Have a closer look at the 4h EURUSD chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ]. The referential currency pair made a fresh 1 and 1/2 year low, bringing the USD to the level from the beginning of 2007. Note the convergence scenario in the chart marked by red trend lines. This simple technique is helping us at Gepard Investments to capitalize on the continuing downmove as we speak.
Of course, to be able to MAKE MONEY on setups like the one you see above you need a much more sophisticated technical toolset than what is being presented here. The 3 fully working, back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits are at full disposal to every participant of my 1-on-1 Forex Training. They comprise exact rules on when, what, how much, and for how long, you are supposed to trade…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems mentioned above, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 2 Comments »
Wind of Hope for the Investment World?
By Marek W. Stupka | October 3, 2008
Minutes ago, the US Congress passed the $700 billlion bailout plan. Despite the fact that many analysts, me including, find the plan deeply controversial, the atmosphere it conveyed while being advocated by both presidential candidates brought positive expectations to the investment community. And in the investment world, expectations are everything…
I’ve just watched the record of Obama’s speech regarding the bailout plan given few hours before the US Senate voted for it. Despite he stood for this plan (which, like I said, I find controversial) his speech calmed me down. And I am not alone. This is exactly the tone and atmosphere the markets respond positively to. As I wrote in my last blog post, this atmosphere creates positive expectations regarding the US (and thus global, as well) economy and its future fate. His words brought hope and seemed to re-establish people’s trust in the financial system. The man spoke with confidence, and everything he said made sense.
McCain, on the other hand, although supporting the bailout plan too, gave a speech during which many investors might have been asking what is it exactly that this guy is trying to say. He had repeatedly mentioned the country’s need for leadership, but somehow leadership is what his whole presentation failed to express.
And so, the recent poll results (Obama takes the lead in some of the swing states like Florida) really bring the wind of hope that the US system, and the global financial system as well, gets better after November 2008.
N.B. Here’s one important thing you should know: When it comes to US, I am not favoring any political party over another. This means my views are motivated solely economically. As a graduate from the most credited university of economics in my country, I am just responding to the global economy crisis from the economic point of view. The global economy, however, is tightly connected with the US economy, while the latter is directly influenced by the current political events happening in Washington. Hence my commentaries might seem politically biased, but believe me, they are not. Nevertheless, when the world politics is in fact made by people who undervaluate the importance of healthy economy and financial growth, I simply don’t like them and want them to be changed. As a professional trader, I prefer to have a stable and healthy financial system to a system threatening to collapse…
And so - in the context of the above - let’s trade FOREX, one of the most stable financial markets, staying relieved that the global financial system is on the right way to get in the prosperity zone again …
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »