Archive for December, 2008
Euro’s 10th Anniversary !!
By Marek W. Stupka | December 31, 2008
On New Year’s Eve, the Europe’s single currency marks its 10th birthday. Since its launch on January 1, 1999, the euro has proven that it really can deliver what so many of the Old Continent planned for it - to become a powerful greenback’s competitor…
Europe’s single currency was born out of tension. After the foreign exchange turmoil in the early nineties it became obvious that the non-effective “fixed but adaptive” currency exchange mechanism has to be replaced either by a set of local floating currencies, which would actually mean taking a step back, or by a monetary union. The second option prevailed, although the risk of the unknown was high in the beginning.
10 years later, Europeans can sigh with relief that the decision was worth the trouble. As Germans gave up their Deutsche Marks that were actually at the very core of their Wirtschaft Wonder (Economy Miracle), French their Franks, and Austrians their Schillings, the Europe’s single currency that replaced them became one of the most stable and trusted currencies in the world. In 2006, the total value of euro notes in circulation overtook that of dollar bills. The respect the euro has earned as a store of value is also shown in the rise of official reserves held in euros: 27 per cent of the 2008 world total, up from 18 per cent a decade ago. Over the same period, the dollar’s share fell to 63 per cent from 71 per cent.
The power of the euro notes becomes more and more obvious along with the continuing recession which, although affecting in a negative way both the Old and the New Continent, still seems to raise its ugly head higher in the US. In Quantum of Solace, the latest James Bond film, James uses euros because, as one of the counterparties notes, “the dollar isn’t what it once was. The cost of war.”
Of course, to claim that the US dollar is no longer the world’s Nr.1 currency would still be preliminary, if not unwise. There is a strong tradition attached to the US banknote - many call it the “safe haven” of investments, or assign to it the two most needed attributes: safety and liquidity. This might not change as soon as the euro enthusiasts tend to believe. One of the many reasons is that hedge funds - the true market makers in this industry - are in large numbers denominated in the US dollars. And while this is the case, we can still reasonably expect the currency markets to “fly back to safety” in times of trouble, as they did over the last hectic couple of months…
Topics: Miscellanous | 1 Comment »
Detroit Gets the Government Money !!
By Marek W. Stupka | December 31, 2008
US car makers were finally able to take the long expected sigh of relief. Their shares skyrocketed following news that the U.S. government agreed to bolster GMAC, the former financing arm of General Motors, with a nice, round 6 billion dollar aid …
Late on Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department offered funds from the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) to GMAC, the financing firm of General Motors that is still 40% owned by the auto making company.
The Treasury commited itself to buy a $5.0 billion stake in GMAC and will give GM up to $1.0 billion to invest in the financial firm.
This step was taken following a very emotional discussion in both US Government and Senate, and is supposed to facilitate auto financing for consumers and mute fears of insolvency for a company that has struggled under the global economic slowdown.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
FED’s Rate Slash Causes the Dollar to Fall !!
By Marek W. Stupka | December 18, 2008
The dollar’s fall against the euro so far this week has been the largest and steepest since the inception of the single currency in 1999. Greenback came under renewed selling pressure after the Federal Reserve decided on Tuesday to slash US interest rates to zero.
Consequently, the dollar declined to a 13-year low against the Japanese yen and a 10-week low against the European single currency. And so, it seems that the greenback strength and safe haven status which has been the case in the currency markets since this Summer is now nothing but history.
The Fed decision drove short-term interest rate differentials between the US and the eurozone back to the highs of earlier this year. This simply means that interest rates in Europe are substantially higher than those in the US again.
As we are well aware of from the past decisions of major central banks, interest rate cuts as dramatic as the one we’ve seen on Tuesday have not only immediate impact on the markets, but also serve as catalysts of market sentiment in the days and weeks to come. Therefore, in the light of the above, we at Gepard Investments, Inc. prefer trading along with the euro bulls at the moment. This renewed euro-strength sentiment is also backed by the 1d EURUSD Ichimoku analysis which shows the price distinctly leaving the uncertainity of the Kumo cloud, and moving high into the bull territory.
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
EURUSD Ready for a Corrective Move
By Marek W. Stupka | December 14, 2008
A lot has happened in the investment world over the last couple of weeks. We have seen the G4 central banks cutting interest rates to historically low levels. We have seen the US unemployment skyrocketing. We have seen emotional discussions on the necessity to bail out the US auto industry (first the talks collapsed, now the US Treasury signals a rescue). OK, wrap it up, Marek! All we want to know is: Quo Vadis (Where are you heading), EURUSD?
Examine the 1d EURUSD chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ]. The referential currency pair has just reached the green Resistance trend line and is about to post a corrective move. Note, however, that the sentiment is slowly turning against the USD bulls, so expect the pair to attack the green R again in near future. Once the attack succeeds and the trend line is broken, the pair is well positioned to rise.
Those of my students who are practitioning the traditional Japanese Ichimoku Kinko Hyo strategy (shown in the chart above) are advised to wait until the price breaks out of the Kumo cloud in the chart above - since, as we know, all of the day traders better stay on the sidelines while the market is within the Kumo. Once the Kumo is broken and all 5 of the traditional Ichy signals are in place, the time will be ripe to shoot north in accordance with the Ichimoku Trading System.
Of course, to really be able to MAKE MONEY on setups like above you need a much more sophisticated technical toolset than what is being presented here. The 3 fully working, back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits are at full disposal to every participant of my 1-on-1 Forex Training. They comprise exact rules on when, what, how much, and for how long, you are supposed to trade…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems mentioned above, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 5 Comments »
Is Your Mentor a Scammer? (2)
By Marek W. Stupka | December 5, 2008
I am being bombarded by guys from the New Continent sending emails asking what exactly can one expect from the 1-on-1 Training and what can one find inside the exclusive training website. This is the answer.
Due to the ever increasing number of second- through twelfth-grade FOREX mentors many times operating with fraud, scam, and fake (or nonexisting) training interfaces, I decided to show to my audience a small piece of what’s really inside my training website. Here it is:
The 1-on-1 Training comprises 7 and 1/2 weeks full of quality training materials, 3 tested trading systems, 24 lessons, large number of interactive stuff, system updates, videos, trade signals, online reference, and other support documents. The interactive guide above is actually one of the 4 User’s Manuals on how to use the exclusive training interface.
Besides having the chance to work with me on a daily basis (over the emails, IM, and even phone), my 1-on-1 students also have access to several other cool features of the training. One of them is the online Trade Journal. Check out the User’s Manual below:
Proved above, my 1-on-1 Training is really a precise, comprehensive, and definitely no-fake training environment. By using the training tools contained in the exclusive training interface, I have already helped many people from around the world to become better traders and shift their trading results from the red zone to the black zone. Speaking of which, you are welcome to participate too.
Topics: Miscellanous | 1 Comment »