Archive for February, 2009
Profiting on FOREX While Wall Street Slumps !!
By Marek W. Stupka | February 28, 2009
Friday has been another hectic day on Wall Street. Even before trading started, two major fundamental stories had influenced traders’ sentiment in a major way. First one was the partial nationalization of the Citigroup which - to put it mildly - left many people feeling quite uncomfortable and second one was the revised US GDP for the last quarter of 2008.
The original estimate for contraction of the Gross Domestic Product growth in the USA in the last 3 months of 2008 was 3.8%. This has now been pulled down to 6.2%. Such abrupt revision represents the sharpest decline in GDP since 1982. In all this terrible piece of news there is, fortunately, one ray of hope: if we scrutinize the details of the report we find that the GDP revision was caused partially by a drop in inventories which implies that there will be less need for cuts in inventories and production this year. In any case, however, this is still a very negative set of data.
At about the same time, the US Government agreed to become the biggest single shareholder in Citigroup, in the latest attempt to save the ailing financial group and to shore up the country’s banking system. The partial nationalization will give the government a stake of up to 36% in the troubled group, trying to recover a fading giant that once used to be among the world’s largest financial institutions.
Later on in the afternoon, a new melancholy has been imparted into the Wall Street blues during an announcement that General Electric, once the US biggest company, is slashing its dividends for the first time since 1938.
These worrying reports came out after weeks of fundamental data strings falling almost entirely in the negative territory. Wall Street had no other choice but to get out of positions in the troubled equities which implied the S&P to close below 735 - the lowest level this index has posted since December 1996. DJIA closed near to 7,000 which is also below the levels from November 2008.
Now, let’s move from the unpredictable world of equity trading to the fairly recognizable universe of FOREX trading. If we look at Friday’s price action in all FOREX majors we see nothing else but a series of predictable price patterns. EURUSD has been posting moves within a distinct channel (or rather trannel, as we like to call it here at GI), creating a perfect playground for applying the Sherlock Market Personality rules. GBPUSD acted very much in the same fashion, only moving a lot more, as usual. USDJPY has been topping on its extensive gains, preparing ground for the Alexander Market Personality. Etc. We have seen no dramatic volatility or brutal price moves into the long-uncharted territories as was the case with shares all over the world.
If you wonder how to recognize various market personalities and profit from this recognition using my propritary CONFIRMATOR (mid-term) Trading System, or you you want to know more about The CANAAL (short-term) or The PERSONALIZED ICHIMOKU Trading systems, you are welcome to drop me an email with your questions. N.B. Note that answers to your specific trade setups might be limited and you might be recommended to apply for the 1-on-1 Training prior to getting my full attention…
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
EUR Ready for a Corrective Upmove !!
By Marek W. Stupka | February 27, 2009
The fundamental reports published over the past few days have brought several shockingly surprising data sets, negative both for the Eurozone and the USA. One typical example is the Q4 2008 Gross Domestic Product which was revised for the US under -6% y/y and for Germany under -2% y/y.
These bluntly negative numbers triggered several spontaneous and very volatile price actions, including the one seen in the EURUSD chart last week. In any case, as said earlier, we at GI still prefer profiting on the long trades (either short- or mid-term) with this pair, following the evident convergence scenario present in the long-term 1W chart.
Note the bullish convergence scenario in the 1W chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ]. This simple technique suggests change of the current downtrend and a swing movement to the north in the days or weeks to come. N.B. Those of you who do not understand how to trade on convergence/divergence scenarios are welcome to apply to my 1-on-1 course where C/D Ss are explained in great detail.
Note, however, that what is being presented to you here is just a very simplified technical analysis, and you are under no circumstances advised to understand it as a trade signal or recommendation. To actually deploy a trade, you should have it backed by a full-scope technical examination, that we at Gepard Investments, Inc. like to call the Trading System, following a clearly defined Trading Plan.
Now, in order to master and deploy a working, back-tested GEPARD trading system (either short-, or mid-, or long-term) you need the access codes to enter the community of GEPARD traders. Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining our community and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 4 Comments »