Archive for March, 2009
And Indeed - EUR Moved Up as Predicted!
By Marek W. Stupka | March 13, 2009
In my last technical post I predicted EURUSD to move upwards - and it did. We at GI still prefer profiting from trading long (either short- or mid-term) on this pair, following the Convergence Scenario present in 1W chart.
Note the bullish convergence scenario in the chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ]. This simple technical setup suggests a continuing movement to the north in the days or weeks to come. So far, traders that listened to my prophecy and traded on it via a back-tested trading system are now about 300 pips richer…
N.B. Those of you who do not understand what the crap we are talking about are welcome to apply to my 1-on-1 course where Convergence/Divergence Scenarios are explained in great detail.
Note, however, that what is being presented to you here is just a very simplified technical analysis, and you are under no circumstances advised to understand it as a trade signal or recommendation. To actually deploy a trade, you should have it backed by a full-scope technical examination, that we at Gepard Investments, Inc. like to call the Trading System, following a clearly defined Trading Plan.
Now, in order to master and deploy a working, back-tested GEPARD trading system (either short-, or mid-, or long-term) you need the access codes to enter the community of GEPARD traders. Feel free to send me an email if you have any questions about joining our community and participating in the 1-on-1 Training.
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 5 Comments »
We Are Big, Give Us the Money !!
By Marek W. Stupka | March 8, 2009
With the recession signs now more obvious than ever, it has become a fine fashion among the big sharks to profit from the advantage of being large. In the course of the past few months, we have seen CEOs of multi-billion companies coming to their political leaders to, bluntly put, shamelessly ask for money. Tons of them. Can’t you see? We need it. WE ARE BIG!
Take this case, for examle: AIG, the biggest insurance group in the USA, revealed a net loss very close to $100bn for 2008. True, $64bn in fourth-quarter charges related to restructuring and so-called “market disruption”, for example, played a huge part. Fundamentally, though, AIG’s core insurance operations are buried by losses spewing from many troubled parts of the business. The Treasury acknowledged that more government support (another $30 bln) will be required in managing the company’s overhaul. Furthermore, the emphasis placed on AIG’s role as a significant counterparty, plus the complexity of a business spread across 130 countries with 400 regulators, indicates that the government is committed to keeping AIG on taxpayer-funded life support, while protecting its counterparties (the large banks) from losses.
Let us just remember that it is the same insurance group that was given one huge government financial injection last year. This year, the verdict is: It’s not enough, give them more! Well then, this time, the giant is going down and is being turned into a set of smaller entities, of which some will live and some will die - if you ask me, this finally is the action that makes sense!
But we can see this same pretty outrageous pattern of big shark plea/government generous support behavior in almost every sector of almost every economy worldwide, from the banking giants to the automobile industry leaders.
Personally, I am not a huge fan of “Keynessian” approach to the government role in economy. Sure, in times when the economy cycle is bottoming, the government can’t just sit on the sidelines and watch. But spending taxpayers’ money on the expense of future generations, many times without the proper required feedback on what exactly the money was used for, just seems to make no sense at all. Speaking of AIG, for instance, it is a sadly known fact that the company top management members were found on an expensive hunting trip in England just after they received the first government bailout package last year.
Surely, many governments act like there is no tommorrow and the money is being printed for free in the comfort of their expensively decorated offices. But the opposite is true - every penny of the debt a nation manages to generate has to be paid back, sooner or later, including the interest. Many times the price of the payback is sinking even deeper in the recession waters.
The last unemployment report is just another proof of the statement above. The US unemployment rate jumped more than anticipated to 8.1 percent - the highest since December 1983 - from 7.6 percent. The US economy axed 651,000 jobs in February.
Well, with all this bad news on the table, I receive feedback from many traders wondering how exactly do I see the future and fate of the US and global economy. Despite the bad situation we’re in, my answer is still the same - I am a short-term pessimist but a long-term optimist. Once the wheels of the US economy find their bottom, and a solid fundamental reason for an upside momentum (which may be shockingly trivial), the wave and spur generated by it might take many by surprise. There are new opportunities ahead of us, all we have to do (globally speaking) is to weather the present storm.
In the meantime, of course, the FOREX market is more alive than ever and has by no means lost its profit potential. Want a proof of this statement? The positive results we at Gepard Investments keep getting every week speak louder than words. In my previous post, please read more about the currency market money-making potential in times of crisis…
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »