Archive for August, 2009
Bernanke Sees Recession Ending !!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 22, 2009
FED chief Ben Bernanke told a gathering of economists and central bankers at a speech in Jackson Hole on Friday that the world is emerging from recession and showing better prospects for growth the rest of the year.
Bernanke, whose term as FED Chairman is about to end soon, with clear purpose to advertise own re-election added to the market-boosting statement a comprehensive monologue defending FED’s policies before and during the world’s worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and did not fall short of emphasizing that a sweet great portion of how we got out of the pit can be attributed to him and him alone…
I certainly agree that Mr. Bernanke played his role as the FED’s boss in the battle against recession, mostly in terms of early accepting the tightening monetary policy. However, we should not forget that it was the same Bernanke and the same FED that failed to deploy supervising mechanisms over the financial and the housing markets that caused this recession to blossom in the first place…
In any case, all major instruments of the Financial Market jumped Friday as Bernanke’s speech and word that more homes were selling sent traders into the weekend optimistic about an economy recovery. Equity indexes posted their biggest gains early in the session after the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales soared 7.2% last month. EURUSD regained its bullish momentum short after, too.
On the fundamental front, I recommend traders focus on the consumer confidence, a very important indicator closely watched by the markets. It is a generally known fact that this recession is only to be ended by growing purchasing capability of an average consumer. The consumer confidence reading is due next Tuesday, right after the NY opening bell. Economists expect a reading of 48 for August, up from July’s 46.6. However, any surprise on the downside can spoil what Mr. Bernanke’s said so purposefully in his extensively cheerful speech…
Topics: News From Wall Street | 3 Comments »
What Do TRADERS Want? (5)
By Marek W. Stupka | August 12, 2009
[ This original article contains inspiring facts hotter these days more then ever before. So I decided to re-publish it. ] People think of different things when they first get into trading - from buying super fast cars, through launching gigantic corporations, to helping others…
I’ve heard a whole range of prospects traders intend to do with the money they are to make on trading (usually, however, it is the money they still don’t have) – from buying own islands, through purchasing holiday villas, to helping defeat poverty in the Third World.
Surely, everything is possible! It is absolutely normal to have dreams like these! The market we’re in has unlimited potential. Plus, there are people in this market who really DO live their dreams.
However, it is equally necessary to realize that, in order to reach your goals, you will have to work, and work hard. There is no easy money to be made on FOREX, in the long-term. Sure, you can win random profit once or twice (even without knowing what you’re doing), but so you can in any casino in Monte Carlo, or Las Vegas.
If you want to trade with consistent profits, it will take commitment. Commitment to learn as much as you can, to act professionally, to never stop working on improving your trading strategies, and to not get discouraged by occasional failures. Commitment to dig deep. To activate your every braincell in order to achieve the promise land: Trade with consistent profits.
But don’t get discouraged. Many traders have been able to reach the promise land. Now, will you be the next one of them..? The answer is up to you right now.
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
Why Do Traders Lose? (3)
By Marek W. Stupka | August 11, 2009
I decided to re-publish my original blog article named “Why Do Traders Lose?” since information contained in this short text can save novice traders out there from further trading losses and profound disappointment.
ACCORDING TO AN INDEPENDENT STATISTICS, AS MANY AS 89% OF ALL TRADERS END UP LOSING THEIR MONEY INVESTED IN TRADING !!! READ ON. I’LL EXPLAIN WHY…
Most of the traders I know - including myself - went into trading because they wanted more freedom. It is a great prospect to be able to make unlimited amounts of money anywhere on the planet with just a laptop and an internet connection. Or, isn’t it?
Well, without almost a single exception, this cool-n-easy way of making fast cash on trading is soon replaced by feelings of profound frustration, anger, and even bitterness.
Trading is no amateur’s game. After a couple of weeks of trading, a trading newbie is usually ready to admit he or she needs to really learn how to trade before going live again, or, worse, to quit this whole “gambling nonsense” for good.
First thing I say when approached by such a frustrated trading newcomer is: Welcome to the trading world! This very same experience is, in fact, common to almost every trader that ever existed (you guessed it, including myself again…). Just study the history of the great investors, from the trading legends like Jesse Livermore, Bernard Baruch, and Edward Francis Hutton, to investment superstars like George Soros and Warren Buffet. All of them, at some point of their career (usually near to its start), managed to lose money.
The initial loss is some sort of a “baptism” for every trader. That is why, when mentoring a new student, I always guide him/her to start trading on a demo account. And to load the first live account with just a very small amount of money (preferably few hundred dollars). It is absolutely vital to make the first losing experience as painless as possible.
Only after a trader goes through what I described above, he or she is ready to begin with the real trading education. The trading pro realizes the true scope of risks attached to trading, and thus devotes him- or herself to digging deep into the Technical Analysis, and to learn how to trade conservatively in order to make rather smaller amounts of profit, but make them consistently and over the long haul. Those traders who do NOT pass this point, usually quit trading. They are responsible for the shockingly high 89% of trading losers.
Let us now talk a bit about the reasons WHY traders really lose money. Since I was able to talk to many traders from different corners of this wonderful planet, I can honestly say that majority of them show the same reasons to the trading failure.
THE MOST FREQUENT REASONS ARE:
1. No quality trading education and know-how;
2. Poor, or nonexisting, trading plan;
3. Lack of trading discipline;
4. Underestimating the importance of money management;
5. Trading on inner “impulses” or “inspirations”;
6. Trading with the money that one cannot afford to lose;
7. Knowing a little, or nothing, about the psychology of trading.
I personally went through all of the stages of the trading education. In fact, I designed my FOREX Training to actually help ME first to trade better. Yes, I trade my own systems. Yes, I obey my trade signals. And I’m successful. Now you can join me - and be too…
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
Safe Haven No Longer Necessary ??
By Marek W. Stupka | August 10, 2009
After the Friday’s USD advance following the release of stronger-than-expected US unemployment data, some investors are beginning to believe that the greenback’s status as safe haven is beginning to dissolve…
Some analysts have had their say that due to encouraging actions from governments not to let another major institution to fall, the need for the US dollar to play the safe haven role has substantially diminished. They are arguing that buying of dollars is returning to economic issues rather than fear.
As for my view, I believe that more rational reasons to a currency exchange rate growth start to take over along with rising expectations that the central bank (respective to the country currency of which this applies to) might exit from its low interest rate policy sooner than expected. Among these reasons definitely are the yield differentials (responsible for the so-called “carry trades”), and the general fundamental strength based on macro indicators.
This exactly is being the case now with the US dollar, and the FED. As we are beginning to see global investors expecting the Federal Reserve to slowly abandon its tightening policy, chances are getting higher for the negative correlation between improving risk sentiment and a weaker dollar to break down. Note, however, that this is the case only during the expanding phase of the macroeconomy cycle (which, I believe, we are just entering). As soon as any consequent major event occurs that causes the markets to question its potential for growth, investors will always have a need to return to the safe haven principle and correlation.”
Topics: News From Wall Street | 2 Comments »
Markets End Month With Flying Colors !!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 1, 2009
The U.S. economy shrank at a slower than expected pace in QII, a sign that the worst recession since the Great Depression is slowly bottoming out. Gross domestic product contracted at a less-than-projected 1% annual rate after shrinking 6.4% in QI. Markets ended the month with solid gains..
Even though this reading was made for the US, it is not just America that is affected. The pace of the global economy contraction finally slowed. Company profits from IBM to Samsung signal the slump is losing steam as governments efforts to revive lending and stimulus packages (such as President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan) gain traction.
At the same time, however, the US GDP report showed that consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, shrank more than twice (down to -1.5% against -0.5% expected) versus the forecast. In other words, US and world corporations might finally be making more money than they were in the end of 2008, but it is not because they would produce more - it is because they save more!! Saving, at this point of the global economy cycle, many times equals job cutting. Thus, the real spending power of an American consumer (still perceived as the universal pillar and measure of growth) remains locked in the recession agony from past months, and it will take 3-6 months for it to recover. As for my personal prophecy, unemployment will step aboard the recovery train as the very least in line, resulting in a 6-9 months period for the Non-farm Payrolls to show distinctly positive numbers again.
World Markets Poised for an Upturn…
In any case, long-term technical picture of the world’s major financial markets like stocks and commodities is now strongly favoring bulls over bears. Take a look at 1W charts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and NYMEX October Crude Oil Contract (CLV9) below. Both are posting evident bullish signals stemming from the long-term Convergence Scenario as well as from the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo analysis.
What only few traders realize is the fact that the major stock, commodity, and currency markets are correlated. Of course, there are technical differences to trading stock or commodity instruments of the Financial Markets (with commodity futures, for instance, you would have to pay margin and brokerage fees, only trade in the time window your chosen commodity exchange is open, follow a different set of fundamentals, etc.) but the most important thing it takes to trade these markets is..? You guessed it right! It is the technical analysis and the sophisticated trading strategies and systems we use when trading FX. In other words, you can trade stock indexes and commodity futures like DJIA and crude oil contracts in the same way as you trade FOREX. What’s even more interesting is that you can use past price action of one instrument to predict the future development of another. For more info please refer to the 1-on-1 FOREX Training materials…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 3 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. Feel free to send me an email before you apply!
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »