FOREX Trading Systems
Euro Pushed South By the Freddie/Fannie Bailout!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 8, 2008
The US Government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac! This has been the Nr.1 fundamental story influencing the markets today. The dollar strenghtened within the 1h channel pushing the euro down south …
Although the market was expecting the bailout of the two largest US mortgage companies for some time, today’s price action has definitely surprised many investors. With the start of the Autumn season the markets are highly liquid and volatile again, and the strategic EURUSD major has just made another set of fresh lows.
NOW TO OUR PREFERRED ANALYSIS: THE TECHNICAL VIEW. The charting you see above is what we at Gepard Investments, Inc. use for planning our daily trades. [Click on the chart to see bigger picture]. In the chart, I have purposefully erased all the important data revealing how the system works and what it takes to trade it, to just present its general idea and, most importantly, to prove that it works well in all market situations, today’s one including.
We use mid-term technical studies to MAKE MONEY on the moves like you’ve seen today. To trade with the current trend, we apply the ALEXANDER Market Personality (used for trending marekts), and use THE CONFIRMATOR = my mid-term Trading System to capitalize on multiple price bounces during the pair’s fall…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Come back again in a few days for another fresh insight…
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis, FOREX Trading Systems | 2 Comments »
This Is How We Backtest
By Marek W. Stupka | August 17, 2008
A student of mine did a wonderful job on backtesting one of my trading systems, The Confirmator. I took the liberty to present here his final results applied to GBPUSD. Observe the spreadsheet below…
The backtesting idea is not just about the pip gains and win to loss ratio! This testing has been applied on a system that I teach. This diligent trainee wrote down the rules, he followed those rules, and tracked his results.
May his approach be a great example for all of the traders out there! See, many traders I train never take the effort to backtest one single trade. This guy is on his path to become a very successful trader…
Note that in the table above, it is trading with the most conservative SL/PL that brings the best results with win percentage between 70-80%! On the contrary, aggressive trading (which I never recommend) lingers around the so much feared 50% win percentage. The point is clear. Don’t be aggressive. Stay conservative, at all times.
Topics: FOREX Trading Systems | 2 Comments »
Triple Moving Averages
By Marek W. Stupka | September 3, 2007
If you are one of my 1-on-1 students, you definintely know by know that I like to use Triple MAs for planning my mid-term trades. Here’s a small example…
Observe the 1h chart for NZDUSD above. At the point I am publishing this post, the pair shows a great SHORT trading opportunity! How do I know it? Well, first of all I recognize the position of the 3 moving averages present in the chart. I analyze their placement against each other and the price - and recognize the relevant Market Personality.
[ Notice that the MA settings presented above are NOT EXACTLY the same ones that we use in our charts. If you wonder about the exact settings I use, send me an email, and I'll send them back to you as soon as I find time for it. ]
With my students we recognize four main Market Personality types, and are able to trade each of them in an entirely different manner. The Market Personality rules are explained in great detail in the 1-on-1 Training, along with interactive case studies and assignments.
But back to our trading opportunity. According to my analysis, small portion of which I am presenting to you here, the pair is just about to fall down now. I will not go any further as far as how deep it can decrease, or where you should place your Stop-loss or Profit Limit. All of these information are covered in the training course.
Anyway, you can consider the chart above sort of a quality, albeit incomplete, trading signal. The general idea behind posting it here is to prove to you the quality of the trading techniques and strategies that me and my students are using (and cashing-in) every day.
Check the pair’s action in a couple of days! If NZDUSD decreases for at least 50-70 pips, you can’t argue with our trading style anymore. It is time to face the truth. What we do at Gepard Investments, Inc. is just the right way to trade!!!
Topics: FOREX Trading Systems | No Comments »
Ichimoku Long-term Planning
By Marek W. Stupka | August 20, 2007
If you followed the posts published previously, you know by now that Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a traditional Japanese strategy that I prefer for long-term trading.
Have a closer look at the 1d chart for GBPJPY above. GBPJPY is my most favorite currency pair when it comes to carry trade. The chart above comprises the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo trading strategy, and this time I made it clickable, so that by double-clicking on the chart you can see the picture with higher recognition.
Note that there are two yellow arrows in the chart. One of them represents the entry point of my long trade, and the other one stands for my short trade entry point. To better depict the price levels of both of my entry points, check out the 4h chart for the same currency pair below (and again, double-click on the chart to see better detail).
See, Ichimoku is simply the best trend-following system I know of. It works best on higher time frames, e.g. 1w, 1d and 4h. The complex guide on how to use this strategy is fully covered in one of the lessons of my 1-on-1 Training.
Let me just repeat the info from last month: If you like Ichimoku, you are encouraged to send me an email with the request to add you to my Ichimoku Freak List. Once on the list, you will receive updates on the real mid- to long-term Ichimoku trades that I plan for my own trading.
Topics: FOREX Trading Systems | No Comments »
And the Winner Is…!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 19, 2007
In the beginning of July, I have announced a trading contest. The winner was to: A. Only trade THE CONFIRMATOR (my trading system), B. Make most pips!
The CONFIRMATOR Trading Contest was announced to all of my 1-on-1 students over the email. To participate, they had to trade THE CONFIRMATOR and THE CONFIRMATOR ONLY, for the whole month (from July 16 to August 15), and to produce the best score in terms of net pip amount earned. The decisive factor was not the money made, but the pips made, so even the participants with small accounts, or mini demos, had the same chances as those trading higher loads.
Part of the game was that the participants had to send me their original track records covering the contest time period to be able to aspire for the contest Grand Prize (two tickets to Sting’s concert in Stockholm, SE, in late August). I promised to check every single trade of the highest scoring trader in order to determine if the rules were adhered to.
The absolutely highest score - 790 pips - belongs to Mr. Amir Mustafa Bhraim from Suisse, Tunisia (amir.bhraim@gmail.com). Congratulations!
However, after checking Amir’s track record for compliance with the rules, I had to kick him out of the winner’s throne! The reason is that you, Amir did not play by the rules - some of the trades you took were based on your own “scalping” strategy, rather than THE CONFIRMATOR. I’m sorry.
The second highest score was in the track record of Ms. Ria Wojciechowska from Krakow, Poland (wojciechowskaria@gmail.com). Ria, you kapt all the rules!
Congratulations! RIA, YOU WIN THE PRIZE!
I’m sending you the tickets via UPS.
Ria did not want me to publish her track record, so I respect her wish. Anyways, this is the brief summary: she made 713 pips profit in a single month, on 16 CONFIRMATOR trades, with the average pip profit per trade 56.6 (That’s wild! Congratulations!!!), and with the win-to-lose ratio 78.95% (That’s even wilder! Ria, I’m proud of you! Stay on this road).
[ Jurgen Steiger from Graz, Austria, scored 48 pips. He ended up last, and thus wins the Consolation Prize - one free month of the 1-on-1 Training! ]
Topics: FOREX Trading Systems | No Comments »
Ichimoku Freak List
By Marek W. Stupka | July 20, 2007
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a traditional Japanese trading strategy that holds a very unique approach to trading. It is fully covered in one of the 1-on-1 Trading lessons.
Have a closer look at the 1d chart for USDJPY above. It comprises the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo trading strategy. The complex guide on how to use this strategy is fully covered in one of the lessons of my 1-on-1 Training.
If you like Ichimoku, you are encouraged to send me an email with the request to add you to my Ichimoku Freak List. Once on the list, you will receive updates on the real mid- to long-term Ichimoku trades that I plan for my own trading.
Topics: FOREX Trading Systems | 6 Comments »
Using “Exotic” Time Frames
By Marek W. Stupka | May 21, 2007
Some traders like to trade on “exotic” time scales set in whole numbers down to one minute (e.g. 23 minutes). They want to be “ahead of the others”. Are they?
Few days ago, I met an enthusiastic option and currency trader who, after inviting me to visit him in his luxury apartment, started a very interesting discussion about life, girls and trading. Over the cup of fine tea, he revealed to me that the true secret to his trading is using time scales set few minutes “shorter” than what the standard scales are.
His reasoning was that he has learned this technique from an experienced trading teacher, and, basically, that by using the “exotic” scales he sees well ahead of the other traders what is really going to happen in the markets!
Well, after asking him what time scales he is using exactly, he answered: 23 minutes and 4 minutes. No other scales allowed! As soon as I inquired about the strategies he bases his trading on, and about the consistency of his trading results, he couldn’t really answer my question. So I suggested to move our tea cups to his study room, and to let him demonstrate how he likes to trade.
After he finished the demonstration, my original suspicion has been fully confirmed. The guy’s “pride” are his “exotic” time scales. The real quality-determining factors of his trading, e.g. the technical tools, tactiques, and strategies used, the trading discipline, written Trading Plan, etc. - are considered “not that important”.
Well, as I started to comment on his trading style, I was as clear and straightforward as possible about the importance of sound, back-tested trading strategy on the trading results. “It does not necessarily matter what time scales you are using. Much more essential to your monthly track record is the strategy you apply in your trading. As far as the time scales are concerned, I personally like to watch the same charts as the trading professionals on Wall Street and Fleet Street. These scales are: 15m, 1h, 4h, 1d, and 1w. If you look at something else, it is important for you to realize that you’re looking at the same price action as everybody else, only rendered in different candlestick time intervals, and thus your trading charts might be distorted against the charts of the pros (not just moved ahead in time, but truly DISTORTED!).
As I tried to prove the statement above to him by explaining the math behind how the charts are plotted, he didn’t want to hear. He said that he’s been trading options and currencies for 7 years, and he is not going to change his trading style now. “Well”, I teased, “it is one finely furnished apartment you have here! Does all of this come from your trading proceeds?” The man just vaguely turned his head, what could be interpreted as yes, but also as maybe not. “May I see your track records, then?”, I deared to ask. And I instinctively knew what is going to happen. The answer just never arrived…
I have been teasing this guy, since I know that he is a sought-after psychologist, and all of his wealth comes from this profession. He only trades part-time, in-between his psychology sessions, with very small money. Trading is sort of a good sport for him, almost like casino gambling. With FOREX he doesn’t even have to leave the room!
See, if FOREX equals gambling in your lingo, you are on the right track to lose all of your money as you’d do at the Roulette Royal. If, on the other hand, you treat FX like a good business, it will reward you with good business results!
Topics: FOREX Trading Systems | No Comments »