Miscellanous
« Previous EntriesThe Truth Behind the Euro Crisis
By Marek W. Stupka | June 23, 2010
Following is a copy of an email I sent to my friends containing my opinion on causes and future development of the euro versus the dollar in light of the current debt crisis in Europe. Many have sent feedback that they find this an interesting reading, so I decided to post it here for the masses…
Since April 2010 when the euro began its apparent free fall, presented to us were dark scenarios predicting the single European currency will fall as low as to 1:1 in pair with the U.S. dollar (some even predicted EURUSD will decrease further down to 0.9000).
There have been reports in the media that it is almost certain the Europe crisis will culminate in Autumn 2010, with the euro down to its prehistoric levels.
I personally do not foresee a collapse of the euro. There are two fundamental bases to my analysis.
First: Overreaction to the problems of debt markets in the Eurozone.
Although many investors are trying to „talk the markets down“, there already are clear signals that neither Spain&Portugal nor Greece will have to restructure their debts. A measure as catastrophic as a country default within the Euorozone is, in my opinion, totally out of the question. This can only be preached by American prognosticators who have little or no practical knowledge of the real interest and power structures on the old continent (their analysis are most probably based on those somewhat irrelevant practical touches with the European reality these good fellows observed on a vacation to Saint Tropez, Paris or Venice…) .
Second: The technical image of EURUSD that apparently posts signs of a trend turnaround.
In fact, if I was to summarize the current core pressures affecting the euro, I would mention these:
• Many old sharks in Wall Street – like George Soros who is well known for earning a billion dollars in a single day during the post-war crisis when he bet against the British pound – already in the second half of last year started to expect a significant decrease in the markets, which was justified as the so called „second arm of the W-recession“.
• In October-November, 2009 many of these old sharks invested real hard cash into a further drop of the euro. It is known that Wall Street has been split for a long, long time, almost exactly into two halfs. The upbeat half has their analysis based mostly on fundamentals that are slowly but surely getting better. The old-partisan-a’la-Soros half bases their expectations of fast-earned, vast amounts of money made during a market freefall on anticipation of another great selling opportunity much like veteran Soros has seen after the World War II.
• Despite expectations of some of the sharks from the end of 2009, in the beginning of 2010 the market made a significant move upwards. This the old predators with opened bear positions could not swallow, not without doing something about it. They are altogether influential people, so on a private party of the most predatory positioned financial angels held somewhere at a luxury Manhattan restaurant, they agreed that in order to to save their endangered billions they will invest so much and so many million dollars in order for the markets to do what they want them to do. And behold, besides the market-moving activities they are so well known for, they paid Wall Street journalists to report on - what else than the Euro area. To investigate the weakest chain of the European economy. Sovereing debt in Greece has been recognized as such, then the one of Spain and of Portugal. Secret joker in the sharks‘ sleeves is Ireland.
• Wall Street reporters got their money, and the promise of still larger amounts to come, and from here nothing could be sweeter. They only had to do one thing. Namely, to book a hotel room in beautiful, sunny Athens, and report what catastrophic problems this country has in the field of sovereign debt, and how cataclismic impact this will have on the global economy.
• And that is what the journalists really did. In large numbers…
• Other journalists and reporters back in the USA received the footage and text materials from their colleagues on a temporary Greek vacation. These turned out to be an excellent stuff to work with – exactly the type that earns great money for the media. And so the media made the most out of the opportunity as they always do – by making it sound a matter of life and death!
• Well, the markets moved. They tend to move in this fashion, to say, inspired by a flare of messages that are well about to inflate. This is a feature of capitalism. Based on sober, not too turbo-boost analytic report, markets usually stay undisturbed and do not move by a single tick -
As we can see, however, market reaction to the Greek debt reports was truly excessive this time, and so was the implied perception on main street (most likely inspired by those mega millions from Soros and the like…). The market moved so large that it fell exactly to the level where it was in November 2009, or even somewhat below it (this was for the sharks to compensate for the incurred interests on their open short positions). After this, the old predators were swift to exit their positions – only a crazy investor would be bearish when the markets vibrate around their long-term double bottom !!
Of course, to be fair and unbiased, there are real, objective problems to the EU economy. However, they are far from being as serious as the media present them to be. Greece alone earns German and French banks absurdly high money every month on interest on government debt, so you can be sure Euro supporters, indeed, will never allow a Greek debt restructuring, not that there’s going to be a state default.
My view is that, for the rest of 2010, the market will no longer be pronounced as a drop market. This opinion is again based on solid facts. Just to mention one of them: There is another highly influential lobbying group in the U.S. – the Lords of the automobile industry. For car makers like Ford & Co. Europe and Asia are strong and very important customers. If the dollar was to stay high, these “sharks from another bay” would lose exactly the same percentage of their gross profits as is the difference between March and June EURUSD levels. This is again are very, very influential people that just cannot afford afford such scenario to be here in the long-term…
Finally, I want to cite words of the former FED Chairman, Alan Greenspan, that only support my market view: “The problem with Greece and other sovereign debtors of the euro area is far from being as big as you can read in the newspapers. The whole Europe debt matter has been blown out of proportion by the media.”
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Davos / Jobs / Europe Debt Worries
By Marek W. Stupka | February 9, 2010
Over the last couple of weeks, investors have seen a rather high number of sentiment-changing events of which the most important were: A. US jobs report; C. Worries over sovereign debt in Greece, Spain, and Portugal, and C. Closely watched World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
World business and political leaders gathered in the snowy Davos, Switzerland January 27 to 31 for the 2010 of the World Economic Forum. This year’s theme: “Improve the State of the World: Rethink. Redesign. Rebuild.” In contrast with the noble forum theme and the rethorics of Davos speakers, however, there seems to be no real, lasting, and positive impact of this year’s forum on the Financial Markets. In fact, the behind-the-curtain talk of the very opposite nature turned out to be market moving - Davos 2010 ended up to be banker-bashing (and particular big-bank banker-bashing), with hedge fund and private equity managers delighted to find themselves on the side of the angels for once: “Hey, we’re not bankers.” As one of the Japanese speakers put it, it seems that the western banks are now perceived as the public enemies rather than public-serving institutions.
On the macroeconomic forefront, the data has been pretty favorable: global industrial output is booming, U.S. economic growth accelerated in final months of 2009 and central banks are in no rush to tighten their monetary policy. U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell in January yet the unemployment rate fell to a five-month low of 9.7 percent (albeit the economy actually shed 20k jobs).
However, the true market-moving “story of the day” seems to be the persistent worries about fiscal problems in Greece, Spain and Portugal. Concerns over the sovereign credit (and its financing + insurance) in these European countries forced investors to stay cautious, and brought DJIA below the 10,000 level for the first time since October 2009.
ADVICE FOR MY 1-ON-1 STUDENTS: As per the latest news the fiscal situation in Europe might be helped by the European Government and the European Central Bank, expect a choppy trade in the coming weeks. The markets are already perfectly set for the SHER-LOCK Market Personality, go ahead and use it in accordance with the CONFIRMATOR Trading System rules. If you have any questions or any portion of your currently studied training materials seems to remain unclear to you, just drop me an email with questions, as usual…
Topics: Miscellanous | 1 Comment »
Happy New Year 2010, Traderland !!
By Marek W. Stupka | January 3, 2010
Another year’s over! When we turn back to analyze it, there’s a simple question to be answered: “How was 2009, really?” By the global trading community, 2009 is perceived as one of the worst years ever. Hey, but not by smart investors able to profit on trading even when conditions suddenly change!! .. we at GI boast to belong to ones ..
Perfectly in accord with that widely spread habit of returning during the NYE holiday to the old year performance in order to summarize and make conclusions, I attempted to make the same effort and went through all my 2009 blog posts, mostly the technical ones (please note that on this blog, I only publish simplified, long-term market analysis and make predictions as far as my most favored future development of the selected currency majors, EURUSD in particular. In no way, however, these should be mistakenly perceived as being the sophisticated, comprehensive technical research pieces we produce at Gepard Investments, Inc. - these are only available to my students after they apply for my 1-on-1 FOREX Training Program).
I encourage you to go through my last year’s posts by visiting the Archives of this page. If you read carefully, and compare the actual predictions with the market reality, you will find out the same thing I did.
In fact, even for me, this was an encouraging fact to discover:
In 2009, none of my long-term technical market prophecies on this blog failed to come true!! In fact, those investors that took my advice to heart in the past year were able to make hundreds of pips and thus generate profit of hundreds to hundreds of thousands dollars, depending on how much money they trade with. SO HERE GOES MY LATE CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR’S WISH > Cheers to smart investing in accordance with the finest trading strategies ever invented! Cheers to the Gepard Trading Style!! May the year 2010 be even more fruitful for us than 2009 !!!
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Investing Today? Liquidity Above All!
By Marek W. Stupka | December 12, 2009
The deepest pit of the recession seems to be over now and the markets, with DJIA lingering just above 10,000 and gold falling almost 10% since the beginning of 12/09, seem to hesitate about which direction to go. What on earth should a global investor do at times like these?
Here’s a grand idea. For clues on how this investment situation is perceived by the wealthiest people of our planet let us look at the high net-worth investors and their views on their current investment strategy.
Throughout 2009, several extensive surveys have been performed among some of the wealthiest individuals on the planet on what investment strategy/strategies they are using when it comes to managing their money. The Economist Intelligence Unit was commissioned by Barclays Wealth to survey 2,000 wealthy individuals around the globe and published a paper called “New Horizon, New Behavior” in September 2009. Most recently, the Family Office Channel, an exclusive group of advisors and wealthy families surveyed 100 advisers on current investment attitudes.
The findings across all surveys were consistent - wealthy clients are returning to a much more conservative money management style. But hey, that’s not all! They also plan to stay this way for the future. In other words, they are increasingly skeptical of highly complicated products like structured notes and hedge funds and are concentrating on plain vanilla liquid investments like bonds, stocks, ETFs, commodities, and currencies. Rather than use complicated option strategies to hedge the risk of a financial meltdown, they were turning to an old favorite - cash.
This - among many of the wealthiest people of our time - has led during the recent months to investing their vast monetary resources in the currency markets, or the FOREX, since we all know that SPOT FOREX IS THE MOST LIQUID MARKET IN THE WORLD. In the beginning of this year it was the greenback many poured their money into. After the March/April market meltdown (and dollar rebound based on the “return to safety” approach), however, investors swapped to other currencies, especially Euro and the Australian dollar.
I get asked by traders worldwide what is it that I prophet for the markets to do next. Gold has already posted a strong correction, drawing other commodities, as well as some of the currency majors with it. Should this mean that we are at the very dawn of another market meltdown, or a “government bubble burst” as some chronically bearish analysts would proclaim so boldly?
Well, I know for many of the hedge fund and portfolio managers out there the idea of another meltdown seems to be incredibly appealing. The reason? Once a bubble bursts out, as it did in September 2008, it is very easy for bears to ride down with the rest and make money on the implied panic. Why? Because of one of the very essential human emotions=fear. Fear, my friends, was the reason why many bears were able to make millions on the 2008/2009 crunch with a very little risk attached. Oh, when a blood-thirsty bear gets his tasty filling once, he simply wants more as soon as his stomach gets empty again.
P.S. Note that there is no doubt in my mind that what we are witnessing right now is not another bubble burst, but just a temporary market correction, and that the global recovery is already underway. I am am definitely a bottom-up investor and like to make money on the progress instead of on the fall. In any case, however, global investors should get ready for a bumpy road towards the 2010, with volatility and market risk being extremely high. For the most cautious of you out there, I recommend to stay on the sidelines, or even get away from the hustle and bustle of the city (applies in case you live in one) and visit a beach resort. For those who like to profit on high volatility, we have 3 trading systems proved to bring forth consistent profits even at times of uncertainty. On this blog page, I plan on posting (apart from a Christmas wish) another simplified tech analysis post till the end of the year. Always remember - your questions and observations are welcome at my email address marek@gepardinvestments.com. HAPPY TRADING !!
Topics: Miscellanous | 7 Comments »
Recovery vs Unemployment
By Marek W. Stupka | November 22, 2009
U.S. unemployment has not hit 10% since 1983. The highest American unemployment rate on record, 10.8%, was reached in late 1982 and lingered in the calendars till January 1983. On November 6, 2009, the U.S. unemployment posted a shocking double-digit number again : 10,2% !!
Hilary Kramer, chief investment strategist at A& G Capital Research said that: “As long as the consumer is 70% of the gross domestic product, then we can’t recover with so many unemployed and underemployed.”
But let’s face it, how real are threats of the unemployment ghosts influencing the already booming recovery? There is no doubt - unemployment is here to stay. That, of course, doesn’t mean the U.S. as well as the global economy is not recovering.
Personally, I don’t expect the employment situation to get better until at least the start of next year. Some companies may even wait until next year to begin hiring people to help their bottom line through the end of the fourth quarter. Moreover, unemployment is a lagging indicator. It is absolutely normal and even typical for unemployment to continue to inch up for several months after the DJIA and the S&P 500 trough. In other words, history shows that the unemployment rate only starts to fall 6 to 7 months after the Dow Jones Industrial Average crosses from below an important psychological level - in our case it is the 10,000 mark. It was reached in the early November 2009, so don’t expect the NFP showing positive numbers until June-July 2010.
OK, what should a savvy investor do these days? What is the best fundamental data to follow? Well, let’s be honest, the absolute worst thing an investor can do is try to time the market according to unemployment numbers! If you do this, you will miss the train and settle your long-term trades too late..
And so, investors shouldn’t put too much weight on the unemployment numbers. These numbers won’t improve soon, as employers will first try to replace their lost workforce with technology and then hire temporary workers before hiring employees full-time.
Right now, the Nr.1 fundamental story of the Fall 2009 is the CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. Yes, we all know that the GDP figures are on the rise again. That, my friend, is already history. Now, when it comes to fundamentals, the absolute superior thing you should focus on is confidence of the U.S. buyers. I strongly advise to watch the indicators like CB Consumer Confidence and Personal Spending to determine how soon the markets will recover.
P.S. Note that there is no doubt in my mind about the global recovery being already underway. The only thing we need to find out in the days to come is how fast the recovery process is going to blossom. This, my fellow traders, is the beginning of many investment opportunities, this is the dawn of big money being made at the FOREX front, too…
Topics: Miscellanous, News From Wall Street | 3 Comments »
RECOVERY - Where is the Real Money ??
By Marek W. Stupka | October 26, 2009
A year after the 2008 market freefall, many of those investors that for so long have been standing on the sidelines are now beginning to think about investing big in order to profit from trading again. So, where’s the real money to be made during this sluggish recovery?
Opinions of experts and professional forecasters on the future course of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 100 and 500, as well as the EURUSD (benchmark FX currency pair) vary. Some analysts and fund managers predict the financial markets to rise based on renewed “risk appetite” - the same pattern of behavior we observed in the markets before the 2008 crisis. Others prophecy the markets will decline, pointing to the fact that unemployment will need another months, if not years, to get back to the positive territory again, and the governmental financial injections will fail to have impact on the economy once the money stops coming in.
Since the time I launched this blog, I have been receiving plenty of inquiries on where the markets are going to move next, what future prediction I can draw for the EURUSD and other majors, what is my personal view on when the crisis will end, etc.
But the single most important question I have been asked was :
SHOW ME HOW I CAN MAKE MONEY ON TRADING THE MARKETS, BE IT DURING THE RECESSION OR THE RECOVERY. SHOW ME HOW I CAN GET RICH BY TRADING !!
Well, the answer is quite simple - in order to trade the markets with profit month in and month out, regardless of their fundamental condition, you must have a quality trading education. That’s where the REAL MONEY abides - no inexperienced individual has ever been able to get rich on trading without getting experienced first…
For the reason of equipping every investor hungry for profit with a cutting-edge trading education, teaching him/her the principles that helped me (and so many of my students from Hong-Kong to New York) to trade the markets with consistent profits, in late 2006 I launched the FOREX 1-on-1 Training, very likely the best online personal program on trading on the planet. The training program turned out to be overwhelmingly helpful for great majority of my trainees, since less than 2% of the 1-on-1 students have ever asked for a refund. A third-party proof of how satisfied are the people I work with can be found at r.ecommended.com.
If you would like to join the growing community of GEPARD traders and receive the best FOREX trading education available on the internet, I invite you to visit our GI website and search it for more information on how the course works and how you can apply. See you aboard the course ship, then. And happy trading!!
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
What Do TRADERS Want? (5)
By Marek W. Stupka | August 12, 2009
[ This original article contains inspiring facts hotter these days more then ever before. So I decided to re-publish it. ] People think of different things when they first get into trading - from buying super fast cars, through launching gigantic corporations, to helping others…
I’ve heard a whole range of prospects traders intend to do with the money they are to make on trading (usually, however, it is the money they still don’t have) – from buying own islands, through purchasing holiday villas, to helping defeat poverty in the Third World.
Surely, everything is possible! It is absolutely normal to have dreams like these! The market we’re in has unlimited potential. Plus, there are people in this market who really DO live their dreams.
However, it is equally necessary to realize that, in order to reach your goals, you will have to work, and work hard. There is no easy money to be made on FOREX, in the long-term. Sure, you can win random profit once or twice (even without knowing what you’re doing), but so you can in any casino in Monte Carlo, or Las Vegas.
If you want to trade with consistent profits, it will take commitment. Commitment to learn as much as you can, to act professionally, to never stop working on improving your trading strategies, and to not get discouraged by occasional failures. Commitment to dig deep. To activate your every braincell in order to achieve the promise land: Trade with consistent profits.
But don’t get discouraged. Many traders have been able to reach the promise land. Now, will you be the next one of them..? The answer is up to you right now.
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
Why Do Traders Lose? (3)
By Marek W. Stupka | August 11, 2009
I decided to re-publish my original blog article named “Why Do Traders Lose?” since information contained in this short text can save novice traders out there from further trading losses and profound disappointment.
ACCORDING TO AN INDEPENDENT STATISTICS, AS MANY AS 89% OF ALL TRADERS END UP LOSING THEIR MONEY INVESTED IN TRADING !!! READ ON. I’LL EXPLAIN WHY…
Most of the traders I know - including myself - went into trading because they wanted more freedom. It is a great prospect to be able to make unlimited amounts of money anywhere on the planet with just a laptop and an internet connection. Or, isn’t it?
Well, without almost a single exception, this cool-n-easy way of making fast cash on trading is soon replaced by feelings of profound frustration, anger, and even bitterness.
Trading is no amateur’s game. After a couple of weeks of trading, a trading newbie is usually ready to admit he or she needs to really learn how to trade before going live again, or, worse, to quit this whole “gambling nonsense” for good.
First thing I say when approached by such a frustrated trading newcomer is: Welcome to the trading world! This very same experience is, in fact, common to almost every trader that ever existed (you guessed it, including myself again…). Just study the history of the great investors, from the trading legends like Jesse Livermore, Bernard Baruch, and Edward Francis Hutton, to investment superstars like George Soros and Warren Buffet. All of them, at some point of their career (usually near to its start), managed to lose money.
The initial loss is some sort of a “baptism” for every trader. That is why, when mentoring a new student, I always guide him/her to start trading on a demo account. And to load the first live account with just a very small amount of money (preferably few hundred dollars). It is absolutely vital to make the first losing experience as painless as possible.
Only after a trader goes through what I described above, he or she is ready to begin with the real trading education. The trading pro realizes the true scope of risks attached to trading, and thus devotes him- or herself to digging deep into the Technical Analysis, and to learn how to trade conservatively in order to make rather smaller amounts of profit, but make them consistently and over the long haul. Those traders who do NOT pass this point, usually quit trading. They are responsible for the shockingly high 89% of trading losers.
Let us now talk a bit about the reasons WHY traders really lose money. Since I was able to talk to many traders from different corners of this wonderful planet, I can honestly say that majority of them show the same reasons to the trading failure.
THE MOST FREQUENT REASONS ARE:
1. No quality trading education and know-how;
2. Poor, or nonexisting, trading plan;
3. Lack of trading discipline;
4. Underestimating the importance of money management;
5. Trading on inner “impulses” or “inspirations”;
6. Trading with the money that one cannot afford to lose;
7. Knowing a little, or nothing, about the psychology of trading.
I personally went through all of the stages of the trading education. In fact, I designed my FOREX Training to actually help ME first to trade better. Yes, I trade my own systems. Yes, I obey my trade signals. And I’m successful. Now you can join me - and be too…
Topics: Miscellanous | No Comments »
Now Really. What Started the Recession ??
By Marek W. Stupka | April 24, 2009
With many investors finally being “sick and tired of being sick and tired”, and with some macros evidently showing signs of bottoming, winds of hope are being blown into the sails of the capital markets. Looking retrospectively at the mess behind us, people ask: What has really caused this?? What’s started the recession, in the first place?
There are, of course, many theories trying to answer this question. In any case, I don’t believe the recession trigger was a highly-complicated matter that only a limited number of carefully selected economists has the right to understand.
I believe everybody should know what the recession trigger was to really understand the current status-quo and the possibilities for the future. I also believe we should all do our part so that similar things won’t happen in our future world.
First of all, the 2008-09 recession had been caused by greed. By limitless, uncensored greed of the top managers and owners of the biggest financial institutions, mostly in the USA but also in other countries of our Western world. To be specific, let’s just mention one genuine example of a financial giant that has: A. Played its part in triggering the recession, B. Had to face the music and pay the price when the crisis hit.
A perfect example is the former biggest insurer in the United States - American Insurance Group. When the storm came, AIG was two companies. One was a rock solid insurance company. It made money the old fashioned way. It had terrific management, and offered steady, quality insurance. Its tables were not fraudulent, it was insured by the states and heavily regulated. This forced AIG to be above board and had a regular earnings stream. It made money over centuries! Not a lot of companies can say that.
Now the top managers and owners of the AIG group took this triple-A-rated company and decided to throw a giant hedge fund under its umbrella. The whole motivation was pure, irresponsible, non-censored greed of the AIG big sharks. If it worked out, they’d all have made billions of dollars. Unfortunately, the risk was enormous - and it just didn’t. The people who set up this hedge fund literally rolled the dice on the whole company.
Now, let’s wind down the whole thing. This is the same frustration with Citigroup and Bank of America, the same story you hear from other banks, insurers, even non-financial institutions all over the globe, too. We all now pay the consequences for the fact that somewhere, sometime not long ago, some monkey boss decided to “roll the dice” and jeopardize an otherwise sound and healthy business by creating a hedge fund right next to it under the same hood - that sucked out all the money from the healthy operations once the recession storm finally hit both of them !!
The real problem, of course, was not the existence of the hedge funds themselves, but the extremely risky assets they unanimously began to invest in, since “everybody had been doing it at the time”. It was that being a “monkey boss” became a new fashion among the big sharks…
Another reason to the recession was the governmental tolerance of extensive indebtness, either institutional or individual, caused by the fact that what the former US Government really stood for was - when we peel down all the rubbish - the war itself. But I have already expressed my views on this issue several times, feel free to search the Archives to find more.
So you see, for the future, it is up to every one who is in the top management position to simply realize the consequences of accepting a risk level that is too high. And here as well as in trading, by the way, the same principle applies: IT PAYS TO STAY CONSERVATIVE. ESPECIALLY OVER THE LONG HAUL. IF YOU WANT TO AVOID YOUR PERSONAL RECESSION IN TRADING, YOU SHOULD KEEP THIS SIMPLE RULE !!
Topics: Miscellanous | 3 Comments »
We Are Big, Give Us the Money !!
By Marek W. Stupka | March 8, 2009
With the recession signs now more obvious than ever, it has become a fine fashion among the big sharks to profit from the advantage of being large. In the course of the past few months, we have seen CEOs of multi-billion companies coming to their political leaders to, bluntly put, shamelessly ask for money. Tons of them. Can’t you see? We need it. WE ARE BIG!
Take this case, for examle: AIG, the biggest insurance group in the USA, revealed a net loss very close to $100bn for 2008. True, $64bn in fourth-quarter charges related to restructuring and so-called “market disruption”, for example, played a huge part. Fundamentally, though, AIG’s core insurance operations are buried by losses spewing from many troubled parts of the business. The Treasury acknowledged that more government support (another $30 bln) will be required in managing the company’s overhaul. Furthermore, the emphasis placed on AIG’s role as a significant counterparty, plus the complexity of a business spread across 130 countries with 400 regulators, indicates that the government is committed to keeping AIG on taxpayer-funded life support, while protecting its counterparties (the large banks) from losses.
Let us just remember that it is the same insurance group that was given one huge government financial injection last year. This year, the verdict is: It’s not enough, give them more! Well then, this time, the giant is going down and is being turned into a set of smaller entities, of which some will live and some will die - if you ask me, this finally is the action that makes sense!
But we can see this same pretty outrageous pattern of big shark plea/government generous support behavior in almost every sector of almost every economy worldwide, from the banking giants to the automobile industry leaders.
Personally, I am not a huge fan of “Keynessian” approach to the government role in economy. Sure, in times when the economy cycle is bottoming, the government can’t just sit on the sidelines and watch. But spending taxpayers’ money on the expense of future generations, many times without the proper required feedback on what exactly the money was used for, just seems to make no sense at all. Speaking of AIG, for instance, it is a sadly known fact that the company top management members were found on an expensive hunting trip in England just after they received the first government bailout package last year.
Surely, many governments act like there is no tommorrow and the money is being printed for free in the comfort of their expensively decorated offices. But the opposite is true - every penny of the debt a nation manages to generate has to be paid back, sooner or later, including the interest. Many times the price of the payback is sinking even deeper in the recession waters.
The last unemployment report is just another proof of the statement above. The US unemployment rate jumped more than anticipated to 8.1 percent - the highest since December 1983 - from 7.6 percent. The US economy axed 651,000 jobs in February.
Well, with all this bad news on the table, I receive feedback from many traders wondering how exactly do I see the future and fate of the US and global economy. Despite the bad situation we’re in, my answer is still the same - I am a short-term pessimist but a long-term optimist. Once the wheels of the US economy find their bottom, and a solid fundamental reason for an upside momentum (which may be shockingly trivial), the wave and spur generated by it might take many by surprise. There are new opportunities ahead of us, all we have to do (globally speaking) is to weather the present storm.
In the meantime, of course, the FOREX market is more alive than ever and has by no means lost its profit potential. Want a proof of this statement? The positive results we at Gepard Investments keep getting every week speak louder than words. In my previous post, please read more about the currency market money-making potential in times of crisis…
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
FOREX - Where Is the MONEY in 2009??
By Marek W. Stupka | January 3, 2009
The new year 2009 is here. After the celebrations, we want to get right down to business. What the year holds for us traders? Most importantly, what exactly should we look at to find another set of profits..? Read on to find answers to these and other questions.
The opinions of experts on the future course of the EURUSD, the referential FX currency pair, vary. Some fund managers predict the dollar to rise based on “flying back to safety” - the same pattern of behaviour we observed in the markets during the late 2008 crisis. Others prophecy for the dollar to decline, pointing to the fact that stocks are already showing signs of strengthening and the dollar market moves simply post a reversed correlation to the stock price moves.
As far as my prospect for the EURUSD is concerned, at the moment I do not prefer to open a long-term position for this pair. As you can see in my last technical post, the 1Week and 1Day charts for EURUSD do not show any clear long-term pattern (for a bit more detailed technical analysis read my previous post).
The best performer of the year 2008, JPY, also seems to post no long-term technical signal to traders in the beginning of the new year.
For the sake of maximizing the profit-to-risk ratio already many times discussed in this blog I strongly advise every one out of the growing number of my students as well as the general trading audience to only take technically 100% justified, mid-term trades in the beginning of 2009. These have attached the lowest risk obtainable in this market.
The technical justification means that you should only take trades in direction of a recognized trend. You should ALWAYS deploy strict trading discipline. You should avoid trading as your mood strikes you, but have a clearly written trading plan instead, and follow a proven, thoroughly back-tested trading system. As all of my 1-on-1 students are well aware of, we at Gepard Investments, Inc. use THE CONFIRMATOR system to confirm every single one of our mid-term trades. The system has been back-tested and perfected over the years of use in real market environment, and now produces healthy profits for its every practitioner (only my paying 1-on-1 students have access to the system’s full definition, along with 2 other systems - short- and long-term as well as the rest of the FOREX trading education). Some of my trainees even mastered the system so well that they are now able to trade with results better than I do !!
Topics: Miscellanous | 5 Comments »
Euro’s 10th Anniversary !!
By Marek W. Stupka | December 31, 2008
On New Year’s Eve, the Europe’s single currency marks its 10th birthday. Since its launch on January 1, 1999, the euro has proven that it really can deliver what so many of the Old Continent planned for it - to become a powerful greenback’s competitor…
Europe’s single currency was born out of tension. After the foreign exchange turmoil in the early nineties it became obvious that the non-effective “fixed but adaptive” currency exchange mechanism has to be replaced either by a set of local floating currencies, which would actually mean taking a step back, or by a monetary union. The second option prevailed, although the risk of the unknown was high in the beginning.
10 years later, Europeans can sigh with relief that the decision was worth the trouble. As Germans gave up their Deutsche Marks that were actually at the very core of their Wirtschaft Wonder (Economy Miracle), French their Franks, and Austrians their Schillings, the Europe’s single currency that replaced them became one of the most stable and trusted currencies in the world. In 2006, the total value of euro notes in circulation overtook that of dollar bills. The respect the euro has earned as a store of value is also shown in the rise of official reserves held in euros: 27 per cent of the 2008 world total, up from 18 per cent a decade ago. Over the same period, the dollar’s share fell to 63 per cent from 71 per cent.
The power of the euro notes becomes more and more obvious along with the continuing recession which, although affecting in a negative way both the Old and the New Continent, still seems to raise its ugly head higher in the US. In Quantum of Solace, the latest James Bond film, James uses euros because, as one of the counterparties notes, “the dollar isn’t what it once was. The cost of war.”
Of course, to claim that the US dollar is no longer the world’s Nr.1 currency would still be preliminary, if not unwise. There is a strong tradition attached to the US banknote - many call it the “safe haven” of investments, or assign to it the two most needed attributes: safety and liquidity. This might not change as soon as the euro enthusiasts tend to believe. One of the many reasons is that hedge funds - the true market makers in this industry - are in large numbers denominated in the US dollars. And while this is the case, we can still reasonably expect the currency markets to “fly back to safety” in times of trouble, as they did over the last hectic couple of months…
Topics: Miscellanous | 1 Comment »
Is Your Mentor a Scammer? (2)
By Marek W. Stupka | December 5, 2008
I am being bombarded by guys from the New Continent sending emails asking what exactly can one expect from the 1-on-1 Training and what can one find inside the exclusive training website. This is the answer.
Due to the ever increasing number of second- through twelfth-grade FOREX mentors many times operating with fraud, scam, and fake (or nonexisting) training interfaces, I decided to show to my audience a small piece of what’s really inside my training website. Here it is:
The 1-on-1 Training comprises 7 and 1/2 weeks full of quality training materials, 3 tested trading systems, 24 lessons, large number of interactive stuff, system updates, videos, trade signals, online reference, and other support documents. The interactive guide above is actually one of the 4 User’s Manuals on how to use the exclusive training interface.
Besides having the chance to work with me on a daily basis (over the emails, IM, and even phone), my 1-on-1 students also have access to several other cool features of the training. One of them is the online Trade Journal. Check out the User’s Manual below:
Proved above, my 1-on-1 Training is really a precise, comprehensive, and definitely no-fake training environment. By using the training tools contained in the exclusive training interface, I have already helped many people from around the world to become better traders and shift their trading results from the red zone to the black zone. Speaking of which, you are welcome to participate too.
Topics: Miscellanous | 1 Comment »
Yesterday, US History Has Been Made !!
By Marek W. Stupka | November 5, 2008
Last night, Senator Barrack Obama ceased to exist. President-elect Barrack Obama was born. He was elected to become the first African-American president in the US history. Starting from January 20, 2009, he will have a chance to lead the USA towards the so much anticipated change. Despite current euphory, however, there are serious problems he will have to face.
There is no doubt - when I first heard about the results I was delighted by the news, and so were millions of open-minded people around the world. Congratulations!
However, there are still deep underlying problems that America needs to solve in the months and maybe even years to come. Mr. Obama might have a really, really hard time to stand up to his pre-election promises since - let’s admit it - the country and the global economy are in an unbelievably poor shape (read more about this issue in my previous posts).
Obama’s victory translates to a very likely change for better in the financial market field. Especially in the long haul. In any case, let’s not forget that the immediate situation in the stock markets might not be as pink and bright as we might think judging by the euphory of the moment. Just follow any economy calendar and learn why. However, the solid and predictable behavior of the FOREX majors during October 2008, the worst month in Wall Street in 27 years, lets us currency traders feel relieved that WE DEFINITELY ARE IN THE RIGHT MARKET (note that this does not go to some exotic crosses and currencies with low trading volumes). The impact of Wall Street turbulences on our trading is delayed and considerably muted. Happy trading!
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US Elections and the Markets
By Marek W. Stupka | November 1, 2008
The US presidential elections are just around the corner and many analysts (me including) are of the opinion that they will influence the markets positively. This simple statement was proven to be true during the past elections, it simply is an implication of removing the current political instability from the White House.
Compare it, if you will, to a company hiring a new CEO. The new boss usually gets sort of a few-day honeymoon no matter how bad things are with the company. The same thing is very likely to happen to the US economy - the new president means a new atmosphere of hope and stability which will definitely mirror positively in (mostly) the (stock) markets.
Note also that I do not believe in the new president to immediately mean a sustained positive influence on the markets, at least not in the short term, simply because the US economy will have to face other, extremely important, changes in the end of next week: A. The NFP change measuring the broad dynamics in employment, and B. Quarterly results of several big US corporations. These, if coming out worse than expected, might very well offset the euphory of the so much anticipated end of the longest presidential race in US history.
As far as the two candidates and their long-term positive influence on both the stock and the currency markets are concerned, I have pretty much explained my views in one of my previous posts. [ click here to read it ]
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
Wind of Hope for the Investment World?
By Marek W. Stupka | October 3, 2008
Minutes ago, the US Congress passed the $700 billlion bailout plan. Despite the fact that many analysts, me including, find the plan deeply controversial, the atmosphere it conveyed while being advocated by both presidential candidates brought positive expectations to the investment community. And in the investment world, expectations are everything…
I’ve just watched the record of Obama’s speech regarding the bailout plan given few hours before the US Senate voted for it. Despite he stood for this plan (which, like I said, I find controversial) his speech calmed me down. And I am not alone. This is exactly the tone and atmosphere the markets respond positively to. As I wrote in my last blog post, this atmosphere creates positive expectations regarding the US (and thus global, as well) economy and its future fate. His words brought hope and seemed to re-establish people’s trust in the financial system. The man spoke with confidence, and everything he said made sense.
McCain, on the other hand, although supporting the bailout plan too, gave a speech during which many investors might have been asking what is it exactly that this guy is trying to say. He had repeatedly mentioned the country’s need for leadership, but somehow leadership is what his whole presentation failed to express.
And so, the recent poll results (Obama takes the lead in some of the swing states like Florida) really bring the wind of hope that the US system, and the global financial system as well, gets better after November 2008.
N.B. Here’s one important thing you should know: When it comes to US, I am not favoring any political party over another. This means my views are motivated solely economically. As a graduate from the most credited university of economics in my country, I am just responding to the global economy crisis from the economic point of view. The global economy, however, is tightly connected with the US economy, while the latter is directly influenced by the current political events happening in Washington. Hence my commentaries might seem politically biased, but believe me, they are not. Nevertheless, when the world politics is in fact made by people who undervaluate the importance of healthy economy and financial growth, I simply don’t like them and want them to be changed. As a professional trader, I prefer to have a stable and healthy financial system to a system threatening to collapse…
And so - in the context of the above - let’s trade FOREX, one of the most stable financial markets, staying relieved that the global financial system is on the right way to get in the prosperity zone again …
Topics: Miscellanous | 2 Comments »
Trade Oil in the Same Way As You Trade FOREX!
By Marek W. Stupka | September 10, 2008
Fancy the falling oil prices? I’ve got good news to share. This one is supposed to brighten your day even more! You can now capitalise on the fall (and on the future rise as well) of the crude oil futures in the same fashion as you are capitalising already on the recent EURUSD moves…
I’ve already mentioned this subject in one of my previous posts, but it seems many traders still do not realize the amazing trading potential you get once you learn to trade the FOREX market majors. The reason is simple. Since FOREX is the largest, and the most liquid, market in the world once you get familiar with trading FOREX with consistent profits you are literally able to trade almost everything.
Of course, there are technical differences to trading other instruments of the Financial Markets (with commodity futures, for instance, you would have to pay margin and brokerage fees, only trade in the time window your chosen commodity exchange is open, follow a different set of fundamentals, etc.) but the most important thing it takes to trade the markets you already know! You guessed it right … it is the technical analysis and the sophisticated trading strategies and systems we use when trading FX.
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: Miscellanous | 4 Comments »
Commodities - Same Old Story! (2)
By Marek W. Stupka | July 24, 2008
In one of the previous articles posted on this blog I mentioned the possibility to also trade other instruments of the Financial Markets (namely commodity futures) using the very same technical toolset I use myself for managing my own money and the money of my clients, and teach in my training. Let’s now discuss the correlation between these markets…
Here’s a simple rule you need to know: The major commodity markets and the major currency markets are DIRECTLY CORRELATED.
If you haven’t noticed it yet, the referential EURUSD currency pair usually moves in direct positive correlation with the most commonly traded commodity futures. This becomes evidentally clear as you study crude oil and gold markets, and compare them to EURUSD. Once these markets begin to move in a distinct direction, EURUSD usually hops on the trend train too, and vice versa.
This comes very handy when trading currency majors. And this is the same thing that has happened recently - over the last few days, the commodity markets have made a somewhat fierce reversal when oil and gold corrected from their highly overbought trading territories. And so did the EURUSD. Please note that I have predicted this move in my recent blog post.
Of course, to really benefit from the above-described correlation you should be able to monitor what’s going on in the commodity markets. One (easy) way to follow these is to visit www.quote.com. Another way is to download the complex trading platforms allowing you to trade various FM instruments. You will find more about the pros and cons of various trading platforms in the Module I of the 1-on-1 Training course.
Topics: Miscellanous | 4 Comments »
Commodities - Same Old Story!
By Marek W. Stupka | June 13, 2008
Recently, I received plenty of inquiries about trading other instruments of the Financial Markets (besides FOREX). Most of you wanted to know …
…what do I recommend trading or, rather, what instruments DO I TRADE MYSELF. In other words, you wonder about stocks, bonds, options, indexes, commodity futures, CFDs, etc..
First and foremost, let’s make one thing clear here. Nothing I trade “on the side” compares to FX when it comes to traded volumes and time I spent trading it. FOREX is, always has been, and always will be, in the center of my trading business (learn why). But there are other instruments of the Financial Markets that appeal to me too, mostly due to the simple fact THEY CAN BE TRADED USING THE VERY SAME TECHNICAL TOOLS THAT I USE FOR MY FX TRADING.
If you think I am exaggerating or I am not telling you the whole story, you’re wrong. Mister wrong! The EXACT same strategies and systems we are used to bring us the above-standard, repeatable profit levels at Gepard Investments, Inc. can be applied to other markets as well! No exceptions. No hidden catches. Just the same old, well-known story…
Of course, the fundamental background differs with each market. For this reason, it pays to spend some time observing how the new FM instrument behaves before you actually start trading it (note that we at GI respect fundamentals as generators of market moves, but use technical tools to actually open and close our positions). There are other differences to the above-named FM instruments, e.g. the markets are governed and supervised by financial institutions called exchanges (unlike FX), so you’ll have to keep the exchange trading hours, pay required margins and commisions, etc. But these are just minor technical issues that every diligent trader handles within minutes.
Of course, since there are SO MANY types of the Financial Markets, the most important question is which one(s) to trade. Now, here’s to your inquiries. I do not like to trade vast numbers of markets at once. Hence, I usually pick 1-3 markets I follow besides my core FX trading activities. And they are - THE COMMODITY FUTURES (gold, oil, wheat, soybeans, etc.). I only trade these since, according to my research, they have the lowest risk-to-win ratio out of the FM instrument portfolio. If you want to know why, drop me an email and we will discuss this personally. Oh, and one more thing - many of you have asked what platform to use for trading other FM instruments, and if there’s one (preferably free of charge) that allows you to trade everything. Well, the only platform I know of that is of high-quality, has advanced charting, and allows you to trade almost everything, is the Danish Saxo Trader. Warmly recommend it to every trader out there…
Topics: Miscellanous | 1 Comment »
Fundamentals vs. Technicals
By Marek W. Stupka | May 12, 2008
Since I am in constant contact with traders around the world, I am being asked the same questions - e.g. what do I recommend to base one’s trading on…
Is it the economic reports like the NFP, or the FOMC rate decision, that we should take as basis for taking our trades? Or is it the chart analysis, and its specific strategies and signals, that should determine when and in which direction we open our position…?
Traders are usually divided into two major groups:
1. Those who base their trading on Technical Analysis (as the logic would have it, they’re called the “Technical Traders”;
2. Those who base their trading on Fundamental Analysis (also called the “Fundamental Traders”, as you correctly assumed).
Let me give you reasons why I belong to the first group of traders. Let me also show you why you should too (unless you have a really huge load of money to spend every month).
Reason Nr.1: Transparency
Yes, it is true, Fundamentals influence the markets. But are the reports transparent enough for us to determine which direction the market is going to move after the release? There are cases (happening more and more frequently now) when a news report is supposed to be “positive” for a specific currency, while, right after the release, the currency decreases RAPIDLY against the other ones! There are cases when the news is just not influential enough. There are other cases when an important piece of news is out - and nothing happens! The reasoning? Market has already “priced-in” that piece of news long ago…
So how can you know? How can you “trade the news” (with consistent profits, that is)? The ugly, naked truth is that you can’t, really, until you subscribe to a VERY expensive newsfeed from either Bloomberg or Reuters, AND until you hire your own analytic department to process the news for you - real time.
See, we technical traders are able to predict certain market moves even with relatively inexpensive tools, and still make consistent profits, week-in and week-out. One condition applies here, though: you have to have a sound, high-quality analytic know-how, and enjoy at least few months of real trading experience. Our best scenario is then that we “catch the train” and make money. In app. 2 cases out of 10 we don’t – but we still can roll back our charts, and technically improve upon our failures…
The rest of this article, and much, much more, you will be able to find as part of your 1-on-1 FX Training coverage. Hundreds of traders from New York to Afghanistan have already taken the training course and many of them (those who took trading seriously and have worked and learned hard) are now successful, active traders. Please visit the Gepard Investments, Inc. website to see how you can become one too.
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