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US NFP And Mr. Trichet !
By Marek W. Stupka | July 3, 2008
Today, the markets have seen two major fundamental stories happening in parallel. The US NFP and the ECB Chairman’s press conference…
…came out at the very same time - NFP release was moved due to the Independance Day holiday tomorrow. We all expected extended volatility. And we were not dissapointed!
Observe that the NFP came out in line with expectations, but Mr. Trichet, despite hiking the ECB interest rates to 4.25% today (which the market has already fully anticipated), had “no bias” during the press conference, and was decisively speaking on combating inflation in the Eurozone over the long run.
Mr. Trichet’s speech combined with the luckily-no-surprise NFP report from the United States caused the market to post a wonderful, one way down, NFP move. Please visit the Trader’s Corner section of this blog to see more details on how I traded this piece of news.
Note, however, that we at Gepard Investments, Inc. use fundamentals only as generators of the market moves. Today’s NFP move was a classy example. We prefer to base our trading on technical studies, and on proven, thouroughly backtested trading systems exploiting several easy-to-learn technical strategies …
Such technical strategies and trading systems are explained in great detail in my 1-on-1 training course. Many decided to get educated and let themselves be properly trained in order to become successful traders. Please visit the Gepard Investments, Inc. website to see how you can become one too.
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ECB to Leave Rates Intact?
By Marek W. Stupka | May 6, 2008
This week’s biggest event risk is the ECB interest rate decision. Will Mr. Trichet acknowledge the latest weak results from the Eurozone?
The latest deterioration in the Eurozone economic data has been the major concern of every European patriot. German retail sales dropped for the second month in a row. The unemployment rate increased. Retail PMI contracted accross the union…
It seems that the US recession has finally hit the old continent. There is no doubt - no major world’s economy exists as a stand-alone entity, but to a certain extent all of the richest regions on this planet are tightly connected. This is due to the nature of the global markets themselves, their intercorporate and interinstitutional connections. And so, while the USA is amidst the obvious economic recession with home foreclosures and job market tightening, the European Union has just been affected by the outer waves of the storm.
Now, in times like these, keeping inflation under control becomes the top priority for both central banks, as the ECB member Liikanen reminded the investor community last week. While the uncertainty surrounding this week’s ECB rate decision might lead to some market volatility at the time of the release, most analysts agree that Mr. Trichet will say good bye to his usual hawkish tone and leave the interest rates unchanged.
And again, please be aware that we at Gepard Investments DO NOT base our trading on fundamental analysis. Fundamentals only serve as GENERATORS OF MARKET MOVES. Our trading is triggered by properly backtested, trading systems, built on sophisticated and still easy-to-apply technical strategies. We keep track with the latest economy reports and analysis, but we base our trading on tested technical patterns. A complex trading education is being offered exclusively to my 1-on-1 students (their number grows extensively) for a rather symbolic training fee. The training also includes access to the 3 tested systems and their updates, as well as to many other online features e.g. personalized Trade Journal able to record numeric details of your every trade, chart screenshots, remarks, etc.. Please visit the Gepard Investments, Inc. website for details.
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Aussie Continues to Rise!
By Marek W. Stupka | January 13, 2008
The Australian dollar continues in its generally bullish trend established in the beginning of 2007. The underlying fundamentals keep showing stellar nrs…
But wait, there’s more to this trend-confirming opportunity! Not only the fundamentals speak in favor of trading the AUDUSD long. The pair’s technical picture says the same thing !!
In the trading week to come, I will defnitely include Aussie - and the most traded currency pairs it is comprised in - in my new Chart Planner update…
N.B. Chart Planners, along with specific Trade Signals, are delivered straight to inboxes of my 1-on-1 Students. In this way, they can follow where I am in my planning, see my charts, and even profit from my systems and apply the individual trade setups I have.
You too can participate in my 1-on-1 Training and LEARN HOW to trade FOREX with consistent profits (yes, you’ll be getting the Chart Planners and Trade Signals too).
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Trichet to Stop $ Correction?
By Marek W. Stupka | December 6, 2007
Voices in the US media expressing concerns about an imminent start of a recession seem to form a double top now. Today’s ECB conference holds the clue…
To all investors sticking around the currency markets for a while it is obvious that the US currency exchange rate is just a reflection of the US economy staus quo. The economy performs low = greenback goes down (for the most part, at least). But what does the ECB, and its current president, Mr. Trichet, have to do with the possible American recession?!!
On todays’ press conference Mr. Trichet focused mostly on the price tenses burbling up in the EZ economy. He did not refelect on the possible dangers of weak consumer spending in the Eurozone, and suggested to combat the trend of easing the monetary policy, and thus possibly hike rates for the Q1 of 2008…
However, many analysts (me including) are skeptical of Jean Claude Trichet’s posture, and believe that the boast we were able to hear today is simply too much a bite for the bank.
Although there are vast differences between the attitudes of two world’s biggest central banks, and their plans to set monetary policies of their countries for the beginning of 2008, we continue to prefer the rather topping-out-of-the-greenback-losses outlook…
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Ted Bernanke: Mystery Man!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 31, 2007
Today at 14:00 p.m. GMT FED’s Chairman Ted Bernanke gave his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. His report was full of hidden indices and mysterious signals…
This afternoon the whole FOREX forum has been listening closely to what Ted Bernanke has to say about FED’s possible interest rate change in September. Just in case you don’t know, whenever a central bank (e.g. FED in the U.S.) changes interest rates, it has immediate impact on the country’s economy and, consequently, on its currency as well.
Out of the eight world’s top central banks, FED is the only central bank expected to change interest rates in September. Have a look at the sheet above.
Basically, we have been waiting for Ted to give us clues on the expected September rate cut. But Ted’s speech was full of those sleek, diplomatic terms like “the FED will act as needed…”, “the FED stands ready…”, etc.
In other words, Mr. Bernanke does not want investors to know yet. And so, he leaves us with one and only clue what FED might do in September - the NFP report due next Friday.
Mr. Bernanke, if there ever was a FED Chairman who deserved the title “Mystery Man”, it is you after your today’s speech in Wyoming!
[ To read full transcipt of Bernanke's speach visit the FED's official website at:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2007/20070831/default.htm ]
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Interested in Partnership?
By Marek W. Stupka | December 9, 2006
I received emails from some of you on how you can passively participate on this exciting business of FX investments, and valuate your money with high yields.
As part of my Money Management Services, I offer up to 80% profit a year (in case of higher investment amounts up to 181% profit a year!!). The offer is backed by my own personal capital, and is fully open for the public.
In other words, you can become my FOREX investment partner. You do nothing else but deposit your spare money (any amount starting from EUR5,000), and then just collect your profits on a monthly, quarterly, half-yearly, or yearly basis. The profits are contractually guaranteed with the arbitration housed in the International Chamber of Commerce in Vienna, so you can be 100% sure you will get your money, and get it in time.
Please write me an email at invest@gepardinvestments.com with your contact information if you would like to get the updated information on how you can participate in this unique FOREX investment opportunity.
In the end, let me wish you and your families a pleasant, peaceful Christmas, without any attached rush. Let the wonderful harmony begin!
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China to Abandon $ Reserves
By Marek W. Stupka | November 12, 2006
The U.S. dollar traded lower in the end of last week due to comments from the People’s Bank of China.
Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has said at a two day conference in Frankfurt that China will continue with plans to diversify the nation’s reserves out of US dollars and other assets.
Though he said they were not currently selling the greenback, the reassurance of such intentions stoked fear in US security holders. Such concern is expected as the PBoC’s more than $1 trillion reserves are the largest in the world. Zhou went on to stress that the diversification would be a gradual process.
Russia also has announced it would reduce its holdings of US dollars from 70 percent to an estimated 40 percent, Italy has said it would trim its 85 percent down to 63 percent and many others are following the trend. With all of the ‘plans’ to unload dollar denominated assets, the U.S. dollar has lost against all majors, and both treasury futures and the dollar crosses turned lower until more pressing news could take the yoke.
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What Really Moves the Market
By Marek W. Stupka | October 15, 2006
FX market is a complex system (the overall FX market is the largest, most liquid market in the world with an average traded value exceeding $1.9 trillion per day).
Many contemporary writers dealing with the mental aspects of trading (Alexander Elder, Mark Douglas, Marcel Link, Jack D. Schwager) refer to it as to the closest existing example of the “Perfect Market” – economy model from introductory microeconomics, defined in works of famous economists like Nicholson, W. [1979], Markusen, J. H. [1988], and Bohm, P. [1987]
However, when trying to describe FOREX, we don’t deal with just some abstract, theoretical model, or the “Perfect Market”. We deal with people. Real human beings. Behind every trading desk there is a breathing individual – of course with the exception of trading automats (those are, however, not used as frequently as their bragging headlines would say, since experience teaches us that no automated trading software can be consistently profitable).
Our opponents make their trading decisions based on the whole variety of reasons. Those in fact fluctuate anywhere between solid market analysis to sudden strike of fear, greed, excitement or other emotions.
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