Bernanke Sees Recession Ending !!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 22, 2009
FED chief Ben Bernanke told a gathering of economists and central bankers at a speech in Jackson Hole on Friday that the world is emerging from recession and showing better prospects for growth the rest of the year.
Bernanke, whose term as FED Chairman is about to end soon, with clear purpose to advertise own re-election added to the market-boosting statement a comprehensive monologue defending FED’s policies before and during the world’s worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and did not fall short of emphasizing that a sweet great portion of how we got out of the pit can be attributed to him and him alone…
I certainly agree that Mr. Bernanke played his role as the FED’s boss in the battle against recession, mostly in terms of early accepting the tightening monetary policy. However, we should not forget that it was the same Bernanke and the same FED that failed to deploy supervising mechanisms over the financial and the housing markets that caused this recession to blossom in the first place…
In any case, all major instruments of the Financial Market jumped Friday as Bernanke’s speech and word that more homes were selling sent traders into the weekend optimistic about an economy recovery. Equity indexes posted their biggest gains early in the session after the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales soared 7.2% last month. EURUSD regained its bullish momentum short after, too.
On the fundamental front, I recommend traders focus on the consumer confidence, a very important indicator closely watched by the markets. It is a generally known fact that this recession is only to be ended by growing purchasing capability of an average consumer. The consumer confidence reading is due next Tuesday, right after the NY opening bell. Economists expect a reading of 48 for August, up from July’s 46.6. However, any surprise on the downside can spoil what Mr. Bernanke’s said so purposefully in his extensively cheerful speech…
Topics: News From Wall Street | 3 Comments »
USD Listens to Bernanke & Global Markets!
By Marek W. Stupka | October 21, 2008
US dollar received support after FED Chairman, Mr. Bernanke, said that an additional US fiscal injection should be considered to help improve access to credit for consumers, homebuyers and businesses. USD also rose due to funding demand generated by big investment sharks…
We’ve already discussed that the FOREX market continues posting easily tradable patterns, even despite the equity markets make highly unpredictable, pre-election price moves. Currently, the currency market is traded in massive volumes - which is GREAT NEWS FOR ALL FX TRADERS since the liquidity of the world’s most liquid market is now even higher than the standard - with many big players in the industry withdrawing their money from risky equity instruments and pouring them into spot and future FOREX. This only proves right my claims made in the previous posts about the relatively low risk levels attached to FX trading…
Have a closer look at the 4h EURUSD chart above [ click on the picture to get a bigger chart ]. The referential currency pair made a fresh 1 and 1/2 year low, bringing the USD to the level from the beginning of 2007. Note the convergence scenario in the chart marked by red trend lines. This simple technique is helping us at Gepard Investments to capitalize on the continuing downmove as we speak.
Of course, to be able to MAKE MONEY on setups like the one you see above you need a much more sophisticated technical toolset than what is being presented here. The 3 fully working, back-tested trading systems we have used at Gepard Investments, Inc. for over 2 years now to generate consistent profits are at full disposal to every participant of my 1-on-1 Forex Training. They comprise exact rules on when, what, how much, and for how long, you are supposed to trade…
If you would like to get unlimited access to all of the 1-on-1 Training’s resources, including the 3 back-tested trading systems mentioned above, simply click here and you will be taken to a comprehensive description site on how the course works. You can also send me an email to marek@gepardinvestments.com before you apply!
Topics: FOREX Trading Analysis | 2 Comments »
Mr. Banker’s Cutting Spree!
By Marek W. Stupka | March 15, 2008
In the upcoming FED meeting, Mr. Bernanke is about to cut interest rates for 0.75%. This magnificent move will bring down US interest rates to 2.25% !!
The US dollar recorded extended losses this week, mostly due to the prevailing Euro-bullish sentiment of investors, and also due to the fact that the market is already pricing in the 0.75% interest rate cut anticipated to be made by Mr. Bernanke & Co.
The US Federal Reserve Chairman has already gained a reputation for being mostly focused on fighting the danger of excessively increased inflation. Thus, his answer to the current state of the US economy, and the financial markets, is of course applying the only tool from his macroeconomy toolbox he thinks will help him achieve this goal - decrease FED’s interest rates…
This “smart” move has indeed been used many times in history to stimulate the economy credit-wise, and combat inflationary threats. However, there’s a flip side to the coin too. Once Mr. Banker goes down with the main interest rates for that much, the investment environment will be muted and discouraged alltogether, making the US economy - and the financial markets - a perfect adept for recession!!
Many analysts agree that Bernanke is fighting US recession using the very weapons that caused it to start declining in the first place. My opinion is exactly the same. Mr. Bernanke, let me make a conclusion here and now! Your macro policy seems to be theoretically OK, but - just look at the charts and face the truth - it has every atribute of a profound failure…
Note, that we at GI do not like trading the news. In other words, we prefer sophisticated technical trading strategies to predicting where the market will go judging solely by the economic results - visit Gepard Investments, Inc. website for more information.
Topics: News From Wall Street | No Comments »
Ted Bernanke: Mystery Man!
By Marek W. Stupka | August 31, 2007
Today at 14:00 p.m. GMT FED’s Chairman Ted Bernanke gave his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. His report was full of hidden indices and mysterious signals…
This afternoon the whole FOREX forum has been listening closely to what Ted Bernanke has to say about FED’s possible interest rate change in September. Just in case you don’t know, whenever a central bank (e.g. FED in the U.S.) changes interest rates, it has immediate impact on the country’s economy and, consequently, on its currency as well.
Out of the eight world’s top central banks, FED is the only central bank expected to change interest rates in September. Have a look at the sheet above.
Basically, we have been waiting for Ted to give us clues on the expected September rate cut. But Ted’s speech was full of those sleek, diplomatic terms like “the FED will act as needed…”, “the FED stands ready…”, etc.
In other words, Mr. Bernanke does not want investors to know yet. And so, he leaves us with one and only clue what FED might do in September - the NFP report due next Friday.
Mr. Bernanke, if there ever was a FED Chairman who deserved the title “Mystery Man”, it is you after your today’s speech in Wyoming!
[ To read full transcipt of Bernanke's speach visit the FED's official website at:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2007/20070831/default.htm ]
Topics: Uncategorized | No Comments »